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The Daily Widget, Tues 10/14 – O-383, M-155 – McCain’s Red State Problem; Big Sky Blue?

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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:47 AM
Original message
The Daily Widget, Tues 10/14 – O-383, M-155 – McCain’s Red State Problem; Big Sky Blue?




1. ANALYSIS

We’ve seen the thread titles here on DU: Barack Obama leading by 10 in Colorado! By 8 in Missouri! By 8 in West Virginia, 17 in Oregon and 33 in New York!

Almost every time a blue state or swing state is polled lately, the result is very bad news for John McCain. And on the rare occasion that a red state is polled lately, the news gets worse for McCain. North Dakota is now in play, according to a new poll conducted by Minnesota State University Moorhead. More than in play, Obama is leading by 2 points. This comes a few days after Montana is shown with a very small 5 point lead for McCain. Could the Big Sky states be turning blue again?

McCain’s growing red state problem is evident in recent polls for Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina as well, and these are the states we know about. Other red states haven’t been polled yet in October, such as Arkansas, Arizona, Kentucky and Louisiana. The gap between the two candidates could be wider than we know.

Add to that list such blue states as Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts and Rhode Island that haven’t been polled yet in October, and the gap could grow even more. Only then can we see how Obama could lead in nationwide polls by 10 points. In this political climate, good news for Obama is always just around the corner.

At this particular corner, Barack Obama is leading John McCain by more than 6.6 million votes nationwide, but it could very well be a 10 million vote lead. I dare PNAC to steal that without getting caught.

We were given an idea of what is possible this year back in July, and the map below from July 12 seems to be coming back to life:





Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Florida Obama 51, McCain 46, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 51 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.3, 547 LV)
Missouri Obama 51, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.3, 546 LV)
Missouri Obama 50, McCain 47, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
New Jersey Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.2, 551 LV)
New York Obama 64, McCain 31 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.1, 547 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 48, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
North Dakota Obama 45, McCain 43 (MN State U Moorhead, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/8 +/- 3.5, 771 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 47, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 31.9, McCain 63.0 (TvPoll.com, 10/11 +/- 3.5, 813 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.1, 584 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Marist College, 10/8 +/- 3.5, 757 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 47, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information




7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes



.
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jakem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:50 AM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks PDA!

keep the results just like this to the end, will ya?
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:55 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. I'd rather the results get better, lol :)
:donut: Good morning, jakem! :hi:
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jakem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:57 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. I almost changed my response to reflect that-

I would like to see Obama cross 400...

I dream of a thread of blue snaking coast to coast...
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:59 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. Interstate 90, blue, coast to coast! That would be great :)
But there would be a slight road bump in Idaho, lol

:hi:
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jakem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:03 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. I know. Can we pave over it?
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #14
19. Maybe Palin can find the dough for a bridge, lol
:7
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jakem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:56 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. nice one!

:hi:
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fight4my3sons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:52 AM
Response to Original message
2. Good morning!
Wait a minute!... why am I dark blue on the top map and then not below? :( We didn't get polled again, did we? I couldn't get past that, sorry. :shrug: You know how I am about them messing up the polls up here. ;-)
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:56 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Maine literally sticks out like a sore thumb
Well, it sticks out anyway :P

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:
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fight4my3sons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:02 AM
Response to Reply #5
13. I know!
That light blue against all the dark blue - especially when I know we are really dark blue - whaaa! x( :P


:hi: :bounce:
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gademocrat7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:56 AM
Response to Original message
4. Good morning, Mr. P.
Widget looks better everyday. I am still hoping we can turn Georgia blue.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:57 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. I am hoping so as well :)
:donut: Good morning! :hi:
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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:58 AM
Response to Original message
8. question about PA
on MSNBC - they still have PA tagged as "leaning" - when you look at that poll sources, PA is 10+ Obama over mccain

what are the parameters being used to determine "leaning", "solid" and toss-up
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:02 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. My parameters actually make sense compared to NBC :)
Nah, really ...

"Strong" is leading by 10 points or greater

"Weak" is leading between 4 and 10 points

"Lean" is leading between 0 and 4 points

That should help clarify the chart below. :donut: Good morning! :hi:



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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:58 AM
Response to Original message
9. KNR!
I was on vacation this weekend, the only news source was cable news, which I haven't seen in years. What a joke! Chuck Todd STILL has Obama at 264 EVs outside the margin of error, ignoring VA, CO, and FL.

Anyway, it's good to get back to DU and some reality based analysis. The only thing I took of value from the M$M was the point that WV is surrounded by "Swinging blue states :)" and those media markets overlap into WV, helping Obama to make it competitive.

I can't decide if I want November to hurry up and get here, so we can elect Obama, or if I want it to take time, to build a bigger lead. :)

Time doesn't care what I think, anyway.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:05 AM
Response to Reply #9
15. If it weren't for media towers, West Virginia would be closed off from the rest of the world :)
It's almost all rural. Good thing they can receive the signals, lol

:donut: Good morning! :hi:
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:58 AM
Response to Original message
10. context: If McCain wins Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Virginia, & Florida...
Obama still wins.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:07 AM
Response to Reply #10
16. True :)
But he can't have 'em, lol

:donut: Good morning! :hi:


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Kukesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #10
17. Wow! That is incredible. I'm so happy. n/t
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occe Donating Member (558 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:30 AM
Response to Original message
18. Wow..
Montana is blue? Indiana is blue? Hopefully it carries to election day :patriot:
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. The first map in the OP is from July 12
Used for comparison :)

:hi:
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Lochloosa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:45 AM
Response to Original message
20. ...
:wow:
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davidpdx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 08:59 AM
Response to Original message
23. Wonderful news as always
Good morning :hi:

Ok, let's see if you remember?
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:27 PM
Response to Reply #23
29. I'm thinking it's six or seven hours ahead there? lol ...
So, 6:30 p.m. here, and in the middle of the night there ... 1:30 a.m.?

Are you able to tell us what tomorrow's polls will be? You exist on the 15th October now, but we're still on the 14th, lol

Zogby's poll should have been released there by now :7

:hi:
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
24. Yes but what about Vermont
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #24
30. Vermont: Oct. 6, Rasmussen, O-65, M-32 (O +33)
Oh gawd, it's a nail biter!

:hi:
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 09:50 AM
Response to Original message
25. West Virginia isn't going to be pink much longer
I think that McCain is going to be surprised in North Dakota - that's the kind of place where a ground game makes a huge difference.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #25
31. I'd really like to see polling for Arkansas :)
The Obama campaign "says" they left North Dakota a month ago and put their manpower in Minnesota. Maybe they're bluffing? lol ...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
26. Lunchtime Present for P-Man!
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/12/1601/5665/...


Obama +13.8%: Battleground state (PA)
Obama +10.4%: Battleground state (NH)
Obama +10.0%: Battleground state (NJ)
Obama +9.5%: Battleground state (IA)
Obama +9.0%: Battleground state (OR)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MN)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MI)
Obama +8.8%: Battleground state (WI)
Obama +7.3%: Battleground state (NM)
McCain +6.8%: Leaning Republican (GA)
Obama +5.1%: Battleground state (VA)
Obama +4.0%: Battleground state (CO)
McCain +3.8%: Leaning Republican (IN)
Obama +3.5%: Battleground state (OH)
Obama +3.1%: Battleground state (FL)
Obama +3.0%: Battleground state (NV)
McCain +2.2%: Leaning Republican (WV)

Get it? Every state in which McCain has a lead, even if it's just 2.2%, is a "leaning Republican". Every state in which Obama has the lead, even if it's over 10 percent, is a "battleground".

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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #26
32. The bias is enough to make your head spin!
:crazy: lol ...

:hi:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. Hey there! Goood timing!
I just got back from a two hour dinner meeting...snore..

I thought you might get a tickle or a chuckle out of it.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #34
36. And chuckle I did! I particularly liked this part ...
Here are the latest electoral projections from independent, small media electoral forecasting websites:

The Daily Widget: Obama 383-155
Election Projection: Obama 364-174
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, 15 tied
Fivethirtyeight: Obama 347.6-190.4 McCain
Pollster.com: Obama 320, McCain 158, Toss-up 60
Real Clear Politics: Obama 277, McCain 158, Toss-up 103

There are many more, but I'll stop there. The key point is that all small media election projection websites, including the Republican Election Projection and Real Clear Politics, have Obama over 270 electoral votes. This is because polls now objectively show that Obama is well over 270 electoral votes. However, none of the big, and so-called liberal, media websites show Obama over 270 right now. Every single one is even more favorable to McCain than Real Clear Politics:

MSNBC: Obama 264-174 McCain
CNN: Obama 264-174 McCain
New York Times: Obama 260--200 McCain

None of these websites can admit what is patently obvious to even Republican poll watchers right now: Obama is over 270 outside the margin of error. The inability of these big media sites to simply admit reality--reality that is evident in their own reporting about McCain playing from well behind right now--is pathetic.

Maybe they are afraid of being accused of pro-Obama bias (probably). Maybe they are just biased toward McCain (possibly). Maybe they just suck at electoral forecasting (definitely). Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely). Whatever it is, you would be well served to never, ever listen to big media for election forecasts and horserace information.


(I snuck something in there :7 )

:hi:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. Let Me Guess--The Daily Widget, Perhaps?
I confess I didn't read the whole thing--had to go out and earn my pittance..
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PermanentRevolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 11:14 AM
Response to Original message
27. Lunchtime Widget Bump!
Mmm... tasty widget...
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #27
33. It's great with Big Mac sauce :)
cuz we eat Big Mac this year :7
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 11:24 AM
Response to Original message
28. Great job as always. What do you think could be the biggest surprise for Obama?
ND, MT, MS, TX, or some other state?
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #28
35. Hmmmm ....
Right now, the biggest surprise that we will win, I think, is West Virginia. Another big surprise may be losing Texas by only single digits, possibly by less than 5 points. The Latino voters in Texas may trend with other Latino voters nationwide and split 2 to 1 for Obama, making it very close there. But the white demographic should keep Obama from winning Texas.

Ask me again in a week, and I might have a different opinion, lol ...

:hi:
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #35
38. I'll be sure to check in again
:hi:
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