CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Bush at 52% - NOT THE TIME POLL

[OilemFirchen]

... to Gore's 39%, as of 10/27/2000.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Today's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll continues to give George W. Bush an advantage over Vice President Al Gore.

While not a prediction of the voters' choice in November, Friday's results show Bush garnering 52 percent of the vote and Gore drawing 39 percent. The survey of 851 likely voters was conducted October 24-26 and has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

A CNN/Time poll also released today gives Bush a 49 percent to 43 percent edge over Gore, which is statistically in agreement with today's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll, given the polls' margin of sampling error.

ABC News and The Washington Post both have daily tracking polls today putting the race at 48 percent for Bush and 45 percent for Gore. The latest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll has the contest at 45 percent for Gore and 43 percent for Bush.

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/tracking.poll/index.html

I must've been outta town when the sky fell.

[expatriot]

1. Good thread... you should put something in the title though...

so people don't just skip over it thinking its the same poll that everyone is loathing.

[OilemFirchen]

3. Done.

Thanks for the advice!

Here's hoping the doomengloomers peek in here for a downer fix...

[Romberry]

13. DU Jeopardy

The answer is: Romberry

Alex, the question is "What are things that go bump in the night?"

[enigmatic]

2. It's incredibly telling..

That threads like these fall off the 1st page like stones, while the the "we're gonna lose/we're doomed" threads have dozens of replies and seem to pop up every 5 minutes..

I agree w/ you, by the way.

[oasis]

4. Wow. Way before we knew that the crooked polls were crooked polls.

:wow:

[still_one]

5. OH MY GOD!!!

IT LOOKS LIKE GORE IS GOING TO LOSE!!!

[Fionn]

31. Gore DID lose

Now, let's make sure Kerry doesn't.

[unfrigginreal]

32. Really?

Link?

[GiovanniC]

33. The Only Thing Gore Lost Was the Supreme Court

By 1 vote!

[Fionn]

34. Don't have a go at me for telling it like it is

My point is that Gore is not in the WH today. Why? Because we let the fascists win.

This time, we need to raise holy hell. Civil war if necessary.

[GiovanniC]

35. That Gore "Lost" Has Nothing to Do With How the American People Voted

And everything to do with jingoism and cronyism in Florida, a corrupt Supreme Court, and a complicit media.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I mentioned that garbage CNN tracking poll elsewhere on DU today

They released it every afternoon on Inside Politics to great fanfare, then it was ridiculously all over the numerical lot, massive swings with no reason. Gore dove after debate #1, but that poll and most of the others undervalued all voters as opposed to likely voters and gave the false impression Gore was trailing by several points or more for the entire month of October.

[OilemFirchen]

9. Saw that. And I remember them as well.

Note, though, that it also mentions the CNN/Time poll of the same day, giving * a 6-point edge over Gore. I don't know who did their polling in 2000, but it would appear that they're not especially adept at picking firms.

[goclark]

36. The pollsters were hand picked by ROVE both times nt

[OilemFirchen]

7. Nifty site

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000

I'm especially fond of 1948.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Thank you, terrific site

I'm going to study those numbers and throw them into Excel. Amazing there was only Gallup for so long, before Harris joined. Not really a flurry of polls until very recent cycles.

[sampsonblk]

8. Yep, Zogby was way better in 2000-nt

nt

[Old and In the Way]

10. I was just taking the blade out of my safety razor.......

glad I decided to open the thread before continuing!

:-)

[goclark]

37. ROTFL - I was just getting the rope from the kitchen

We both can live to see another day. :)

[Romberry]

11. BIG BUMP!

Bump, bump, bump. bump.

Look, how many people who voted for Gore in 2000 will be voting for Bush this time? Not too damned many.

How many people who fell for the moderate "compassionate conservative" BS and voted for Bush in 2000 will be voting for Kerry? I think quite a few.

And finally, how many "It doesn't matter, both parties are the same so I am voting for Nader" folks will again be voting for Nader rather than pulling the lever (punching the card, touching the screen, connecting the arrow, filling in the circle) for Democrat John Kerry? I think not nearly so many as last time.

We won the election in 2000 by half a million popular votes (and straight up in the electoral college if Florida had actually counted the votes) and we will win again in 2004. The difference is that this time the margin will be too big to allow the Republicans to steal the election.

Kerry has put on the gloves. I'm expecting that his reputation as a finisher who thrives when under pressure will hold true.

I'm a Howard Dean guy through and through (and I still think Dean would have mopped the floor with Bush) but the John-John ticket is going to win this election. Wait and see.

[regnaD kciN]

14. THANKS A LOT!!!!!

That headline was really effective. Fortunately, my wife brought my laptop to the hospital so that I was able to log on and read the remainder of the thread once I got out of cardiac surgery...

[Romberry]

15. Bill, is that you?

If so, welcome to the Big Dog! If not, consider this yet another bump. :)

[Borgnine]

16. It's still a problem.

Kerry needs to be ahead and ahead BIG TIME in these bullshit polls before election day, or else they're going to be able to commit as much election fraud as possible without raising suspicion, which I have a feeling is what the TIME poll was all about.

Many of us aren't worried about what the poll says, per se, as the poll itself and what it means they're trying to do. Again.

[goclark]

38. I agree..Let's tell the truth to the people

We need to get as many talking pts. people on TV to bat down these polls. I have not seen anyone bat down these polls yet.
I did hear some blonde on MSNBC say to the TIME guy (who was so exciting about the results being in the Chimp's favor) that these polls "suggest" that Bush had an 11% BOUNCE(suggest was said softly,BOUNCE was not.)


Let's Tell The Truth!!! What are we wanting for...

Example..."Same thing these pollsters did to Gore in 2000
CNN/TIME and Gallup are "Rove Polls." My fellow Americans they are up to their same dirty tricks. Trying to steal this one too.
WE WILL NOT LET THEM STEAL THIS ELECTION!"

If we don't tell the American people the truth they will only hear the LIES. If I wasn't checking with DU and reading newspapers and listening carefully, I could start to believe their lies too.

The bought and pd. for media just keeps repeating that poll all weekend,until it sinks into the brains of the people. They are masters at implanting the chips.

They have about 20% of the American public just where they want them: Barefoot and ignorant, only listening to short phases of LIES.

The clock is ticking and we can not let their lies live to see another day.

[cire4]

17. Keep this kicked

So everyone can see just how credible a a CNN/Time/Gallup/USA Today poll really is.

[Fed Up]

18. you devil you. i thought this was a recent poll, got even more depressed.

[laylah]

19. Kickin' it! n/t

[Frodo]

20. I don't understand the point of the thread?

Are you saying "don't worry, this poll has been way off before" ???

[incapsulated]

21. That Gore "won" despite the Gallup Poll, which was wrong

Hahahahaha!

Gee, where is President Gore nowadays, anyway?

Yeah, I'm SO looking forward to a replay of 2000, aren't you? The recounts, the courts, THE COUP.

The closer it is, the easier it will be for them to steal. And don't think they won't try.

[Frodo]

22. Does anyone remember those last few day?

There was a little story about a DUI conviction?


People mis-remember the polling from 2000 as just being far off as opposed to the race actually closing rapidly in the final days before the election.

In short, Bush WAS ahead by 5-6 points a week or two before the election - there wasn't anything wrong with most of the polls. (now Rasmussen is another ball of way altogether).


So if the post is "we can still win this one" - I agree 120%
If it's "the polls are worthless" - I agree 40% (as we are JUST NOW getting to the time when polling means something)

[incapsulated]

23. They say Zogby had it right

Zogby is biased this time around, however. He is a Dem who hates Bush as much as we do.

That said, his poll is far more on target than Gallup's, which is bullshit, really.

It's razor close, period. And that's what worries me.

[goclark]

40. I agree and disagree a little

In 2000, we did not have a clue how they were going to steal the election. We will never know all of the dirty tricks they did, Gore probably won by millions! Florida sticks in the minds of the public because Republicans got caught with their ugly hands in the cookie jar.

Rove is a crook of the highest order and he has learned from 2000.
In 2000 he had plants in with Gallup,just one example.

I am damn sure that in these four years he has planted his little elves as employees at the major polling companies. When they do the face to face and telephone polls, how would the person being polled know what happened to their responses?

On an over the phone poll, how would I know if their little pencil filled in Bush or Kerry for my response? In a shopping mall poll, how would I know that they are checking off what I tell them? They don't give me a Paper Ballot! There is no paper trail! I don't get a receipt!

The more I think about it, these polls are in the hands of Karl Rove.:puke:

[OilemFirchen]

43. Are you suggesting that the DUI news shifted the electorate?

It didn't.

And I "mis-remember" that several polling outfits did an admirable job of tracking the race down to the wire. Especially Rusty Limbaugh's favorite, John Zogby. The rest were as miserably contorted then as they are now.

Look - we have a result which can be used to measure the validity of the data from that period. Gore won by at least a half million votes in the popular poll and, as these polls reflect the horse race, they should have all shown Gore up, within the MOE, for a considerable period prior to the election. Most didn't, while a few did. If polls are scientific measures then they can be evaluated using scientific methodologies - one of which would observe that if a few samples are mostly right most of the time, while the remainder are mostly wrong most of the time, the problem is not with the source of the data, but, rather, the data itself. And, thus, consistently bad samples should be dumped.

But, of course, they're not. The Gallup poll - consistently the worst in recent history - continues to be the Gold Standard, while it should always represent the outlier. That's true, BTW, even if they're occasionally correct. If they don't revise their methodologies to conform with observable reality their results are always suspect at best.

[OilemFirchen]

41. The "point" of the thread

is to give the whiners a bit of perspective. Other than that, it's essentially as useless as the poll it references.

[molly]

24. Geez and look who won

[GingerSnaps]

25. They just said on C-Span that these polls are web generated

Bush has no chance they are screwing with all of us.

[bushwakker]

26. I posted this yesterday - Gore down 13 with two weeks left

and he won. Keep up hope.

[StlMo]

30. Damn straight

... the title of this thread still fucks with one's mind.


Yet:
We Will Defeat Bush

[Nimble_Idea]

27. EXPOSE THE REPUKE LIARS

hell yeah, good job.

[Nimble_Idea]

28. According to those Numbers, Kerry is winning BIG TIME!!

lol, adjust for falsehoods and stupidity and blatant repuke crap, the people STILL sees through their crap! I know all is well now, even their lying poll is weak. Shrub, if he REALLY did get a 11 point bounce would have been 20 pts in the TIme CNN Gallup P.O.S polls.

This is just nice.

[unfrigginreal]

29. The Gallup Tracking Polls were atrocious in 2000

that's why all Gallup polls should be considered highly suspect. While all other polls during 2000 were showing a tightening race, Gallup was showing wild swings in it's tracking poll. One day Bush would be up huge the next Gore would make a comeback.

In the end Zogby seemed to be the one with the best Poll as he nailed the popular vote and showed the Gore surge of the last couple of days. Rasmussen polls that we're following this year were also way off the mark, they projected a Bush 9pt victory.

[TheDonkey]

39. Kerry is most definetly in the game still

[Clinton Crusader]

42. puts butcher knife back in the drawer

wow is all I can say.
:kick: