Zogby poll taken THROUGH Thursday, and it's well within the +/-3.2MOE!

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=857

President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney have taken a two point lead over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards (46%-44%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1001 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Thursday (August 30-September 2, 2004) during the Republican National Convention in New York City. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.2.

The Time poll is a helluva outlier, alright.

[TheStateChief]

1. Still a 9-point Bush bounce

Don't mean to be negative, but Kerry led by 7 in mid-August. But the Zogby numbers don't include much reaction to Bush's speech so it could still change a lot.

[mourningdove92]

8. And smirk is the incumbent "war" president. Kerrys numbers

look great. He survived the SW lies, the RNC klan rally and this is the best smirk can do?

nothing to see here, move along

[Pirate Smile]

10. That shouldn't surprise anyone after how nasty August was for Kerry

and the RNC. This would still show an even race.

Maybe the press will start going after * instead of Kerry (I know, I know but we could hope and when some of the dirt starts coming out on him from Barnes and Kitty Kelly's book, the press loves a scandal).

[Liberal Veteran]

2. Told all the bullshit sky is falling whiners that they were overeacting.

Do they listen to me? Nooooooooooooooooo.

[blue neen]

4. Oh, but Nooooooooooooo!

[blue neen]

3. Thanks for the good news!

Let's e-mail MSNBC, etc. and tell them to report THOSE numbers!

[still_one]

5. Time poll does not make sense

not that many people watched the convention

how did they do the sampling

[PA Democrat]

6. Does anyone know how they determine "likely" voters?

Does that only include people who have voted in past elections? Does it include newly registered voters?

[DemMother]

11. There's no one set way. For a good analysis, go to

"Adventures in Likely Voter Land

It has not escaped my notice that many people are puzzled as to how exactly polls go about determining "likely voters" (LVs). There's a good reason for this: polling firms or sponsors rarely put much effort into explaining, clearly and precisely, the mechanics of how they select these LVs."

from donkey rising, for the rest of the story:

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

[PA Democrat]

12. Thanks DemMother. Here is an interesting tidbit from that site:

A Zogby poll conducted August 30-September 2 showed George W. Bush leading John Kerry among likely voters by 2%. The poll also found, however, that, by 48% to 46%, the respondents wanted "someone new" rather then agreeing that Bush "deserves to be reelected"]/i]

That's very revealing. Shows that the majority of people do not believe that Bush deserves to be reelected.

The more I read about polling methods and the way they are reported in the media, the less faith I have in them.

[maine_raptor]

7. Once again "Likely Voters"

There are a lot of voters that WILL be voting that would not fall into that slot. Lots of new voters upset with Bush, folks that vote on and off each year. These people have "a bone to pick" with Bush. And people with "a bone to pick" are MUCH more willing to vote that those who just want "4 more beers".

So as far as I am concerned, let the polls show a slight margin. It's natural when those polls undercount the new voters. Let the polls show a Bush lead, it's called over confidence. And that can be a real killer to a campaign.

[City Lights]

9. After our convention, the talking heads said meaningful polls wouldn't

be out until the following week. Now they are pimping for the chimp the next day. I'm not going to get worked up over these polls.

[PA Democrat]

13. I remember hearing that also after the DNC

They said that you need to look at polls a week after the convention to get a true idea of any "bounce".

[incapsulated]

14. It still doesn't include the Chimp's speech, though

His spoke late at night and I doubt they were polling many people afterwards.

Everyone needs to be patient and wait for next week's poll results, they are the only ones that will really be an accurate assesment of the RNC.

I suspect they will get a small bump, just Kerry did after the DNC.