If Kerry can win 2/3 of the undecided, he has a 93% win probability...

[TruthIsAll]

with an average 305 EV and 51.17% of the popular vote.

And that's based on the LATEST state polling data.

Please, no more gloom and doom around here.

He's a winner. Can you feel it?

GOOD will triumph over EVIL.


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

ELECTION SIMULATION MODEL
5000 Trial Elections

Undecided allocation to Kerry
Allocation 50% 55% 60% 67% 75%
Trial Wins 2502 3477 4009 4638 4951

Pop. Vote % 49.92 50.31 50.61 51.17 51.88
Win Prob. % 50.04 69.54 80.18 92.76 99.02

ELECTORAL VOTES
Average 271 282 290 305 326
Median 270 281 289 305 326
Maximum 359 373 383 385 396
Minimum 175 172 182 223 247

States won 22 24 25 27 28

NATIONAL %
Pop. Vote 50.37 50.74 51.11 51.48 51.85
Win Prob. 58.52 66.72 74.20 80.69 86.07

[rullery]

1. Wouldn't it be a blast if Kerry lost the popular vote,

but won the electoral vote, like Bush did in 2000? Can you hear the Republicans screaming bloody murder! Actually I think Kerry will win both. Anyway, thanks for your statistical analysis, TruthIsAll.

[TNMOM]

2. Thanks for the breath of fresh air...

I'm tired of the bellyaching over the stupid polls. Everyone should just keep fighting like we're behind, regardless of what the polls du jour say.