Which "firmly" red state most likely to be election night blue surprise?

[featherman]

Poll question: Which "firmly" red state most likely to be election night blue surprise?

Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri are not included in this as they are generally considered toss ups at this point.
Which of these do you think most likely to surprise the pundits and vote Obama as of today?

[LonelyLRLiberal]

1. The one I would just LOL at would be Texas. nt

Arizona would be excellent, too.

[racaulk]

2. West Virginia

It's polling closest to blue now (it is only the lightest of pinks at 538.com), so I would say that one.

I really don't think Obama's gonna swing Georgia. We have Diebold voting machines statewide here, so Obama would have to have a huge pre-election lead in the polls for the Repukes to not pull off a theft. And I just don't see that happening, unfortunately. :(

[rpannier]

6. The state I'd love to take is Mississippi

The electoral vote in Mississippi has gone to the Democratic nominee 1 time since 1960-- Carter in 76

edited to add since 1960

[rpannier]

3. West Virginia has voted for the Democratic Nominee in 8 of the last 12 elections

Both US Senators are Democrats
Their executive offices, legislature and their local governments are dominated by Democrats

It's a very Democratic State.
The people are socially conservative and economically Liberal.
If Obama/Biden can get people to vote their pocket-books, they should win.

[Xipe Totec]

4. North Carolina will be the surprise

West Virginia is already in the bag.

[rateyes]

5. I'd like to say Georgia, but I believe it will be WV.

[WeDidIt]

7. Texas

And it will rock the GOP to the very core of its being.

[soccermomforobama]

13. Ditto

I saw a John Cornyn ad earlier today and nowhere in the ad did it say he was a Republican. That speaks volumes!!!!

[BlooInBloo]

8. West Virginia is squarely in the toss-up category.

[NightWatcher]

9. North Carolina would be my guess. The Sec of State cant handle a fair election in Georgia

just ask Max Cleland about how a "software error" gave his seat to Saxby Chambliss

[racaulk]

16. Ain't that the truth!

And our current SoS is a fundie nutjob. Georgia's in the tank for McCain.

[Marsala]

10. Georgia. Anti-Bradley Effect FTW

Though West Virginia seems more likely on paper.

[Arctic Dave]

11. Alaska, Baby! We are going to clean house!

[AzNick]

12. ARIZONA!!!!!!

I keep telling you, guys.

[MichDem10]

14. If WV goes blue it will be an early night for McLame!

[Compline]

15. WV...but Texas would make my decade

I would cry tears of joy for a week if my red state of Texas went for Obama...but alas, I may have to wait a few more election cycles before Texas blue-ifies. Nevertheless, I already have a bottle of '98 Etude Cabernet in the wine rack waiting to be popped open in celebration of Obama's win on Nov 4!

BTW, long time lurker, first time poster. :)

[IndianaJohn]

17. I would love to see Indiana go blue!

Surprisingly, Indiana isn't a solid red state this year. However, we have not voted for the democrat nominee since 1964. So, seeing a blue Indiana would be wonderful!