Forget that stupid Hotline tracking poll: Obama is up by 6 in RAS and 10 in Research 2000 tracking

[WI_DEM]

(The other day Hotline changed it's sampling to include more republicans, hopefully that will fall off, but besides this includes very little of last night's debate which Obama clearly won, and the bad stock market numbers. Concentrate on these tracking polls:

Wednesday, October 08, 2008 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. For the past thirteen days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day (see trends). Results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The overwhelming majority of interviews for this morning’s update were conducted before the conclusion of last night’s Presidential debate.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 52% (see trends).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
Overall 41 51 2 2 2 2
MEN 47 44 3 2 2 2
WOMEN 35 58 1 2 2 2
DEM 8 87 0 2 1 2
REP 85 7 2 0 2 4
IND 39 50 4 3 2 2
OTH/REF 39 48 3 2 2 6
WHITE 51 39 3 2 3 2
BLACK 3 93 0 0 0 4
LATINO 20 67 0 1 0 12
OTHER/REF 5 83 0 1 0 11
18-29 27 63 0 1 2 7
30-44 42 48 4 2 2 2
45-59 43 50 1 2 2 2
60+ 46 41 1 2 1 9
NORTHEAST 27 65 2 2 1 3
SOUTH 53 40 2 1 2 2
MIDWEST 38 54 2 2 1 3
WEST 38 53 2 2 3 2


Yesterday's Results
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/07 42 50 2 2 2 2

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/08

[Brotherjohn]

1. And the past 3 days in Gallup have been 7, 8, 9%. (nt)

[uponit7771]

2. Yeah, the hotline poll seems like a one off.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Yeah, I'm inclined to think hotline was an outlier.

It seems like every tracking poll gets a hiccup now and then. Gallup had one a while back, as did Rasmussen. Hotline was probably just overdue.

[democrattotheend]

4. National polls are mostly useful for the trends though

And Rasmussen also shows him losing a point. The Kos poll has tightened 3 points in the last couple days. I'm not too concerned, especially since everyone is saying Obama won the debate, but even small movements in the wrong direction in these polls can be a bad sign because they reflect 3-day averages, so even a point movement could be a bigger shift one night. Keep in mind that state polls are conducted over a longer period and are generally at least a few days behind. I'm not too worried now but if Obama starts dropping in the national tracking polls in the first few days of November I will be, even if he remains ahead.