How big a lead do we need on November 4 to defeat latent racism?

[renie408]

I now think that McCain is done...but racism is still going strong. How big a lead do we need going into the election to defeat those people who get in the polling booth and can't bring themselves to vote for Obama?

[grannie4peace]

1. lots

[Essene]

2. I think trying to "defeat racism" this month is asking a bit much...

It could be a 1% or 30% margin and the racists... surprise... will just consider it validation of their views.

[sickinohio]

14. I'm hoping that those

"Joe Six-Pak Rednecks" that can't vote for a black man just stay home. They don't really like mclame, and can't vote for a black man so they just won't vote (my brother being one of them:spank: :shrug: ) At least I'm hoping most of them are like him.

[Essene]

25. voting or not, those people will just insist "people only voted for him cuz he's black"

regardless of the margin of victory.

they are emotionally and psychologically wedded to their bigotry and hatred.

[tekisui]

3. We have it with new voters.

New Voters, first time voters and voters who have sat it out for years, will offset any racism in the voting booth.

[Demeter]

4. The Electoral College Doesn't Care

Enough of this nation is sufficiently motivated to vote Obama that the racists cannot garner enough electoral votes. They are too concentrated in relatively low-count states.

[seabeyond]

5. nahhhh. look, a lot of people are putting their racism to the side. more that do will convince

more to do. it is all good. yes there will be some that dont vote obama cause of race just as there were many that didnt vote for kerry cause he was educated and a yankee.

but as a whole i LOVE what i am seeing on the race issue. many many whites saying fuck that he is black, he is smart and he will do better for this country

wonderful stuff

i will focus on that, and let it grow

[Medusa]

6. Well

I've heard the "Bradley" effect is 5%. So take the Margin of Error of each poll, give it to McCain, add in another 5 points for the Bradley effect and that should tell us how close it really is. So if Obama is polling 60% and McCain is at 40, add 5% to McCain for the Bradley effect=45 (Deduct 5% from Obama=55%). If the margin of error of the poll is 4%, give McCain the 4% so that's 49%. Deduct the 4 from Obama (55-4=51). So the net effect would be 51-49.

[Fluffdaddy]

7. Here in Pennsylvania the Bradley Effect will be real .Obama better be up by 10 or more points

[alcibiades_mystery]

22. Aaaaaaaachooobullshit

Gezundheit.

[elkston]

26. We need to rename it the "Fluffdaddy Effect"

Cause you're hyping it to the MAX.

Look, I'm black. I KNOW its not going to be easy and some people might bail in the voting booth. But I don't think its going to be as much as 10%.

Also, when people are polled many times it is with an automated voice on the phone. There is no impetus to "lie" about who you are supporting if you're not talking to a real person and especially if you are on the phone.

Those who going to be "Bradley" voters are most likely the undecideds now.

I DO think its fair to assume that anyone undecided on election day is really just someone who cannot pull the trigger on Obama because he is black.

[Fluffdaddy]

34. Yes I'm hyping it to the "MAX" Because I know in my bones that a 5-6 point lead is not enuff

[nickn777]

8. I'm not so sure that will be much of a factor...

In fact, in the primaries, Obama actually outperformed his poll numbers more times than he underperformed...I think NH was the big expception...BUT, I don't cite racism for NH....was early in the process and I think people didn't really know Obama that well, whereas Clinton was the "safe" choice......

[LynneSin]

9. Unfortunately I don't think we'll ever defeat racism

I swear the only thing that keeps this election from being a total blowout is the core group of racist assholes that can't imagine this country being led by anyone but a pasty old white man.

I'm so glad I'm gonna see this in my lifetime!

[zulchzulu]

10. We need 10% leads in WI, MO, FL, PA and NH

Those swing states are critical to win and all of them have a fair amount of racists that can't be depended on when they vote due to the Bradley effect.

[Youphemism]

11. Per David Gergen, CNN, he needs as much as 5%...

Gergen was obviously getting folks on the CNN set nervous with his frankness right after the debate. He noted that because Obama is black there will be a hidden voting factor. They said that it could be as high as 5%.

I don't think 5% is unreasonable in some of the Appalachian states, but I think it will be much lower in most of the rest of the states, especially the ones with lower average voter ages.

[TomClash]

12. As many votes as we can get

I'd say 3% minimum.

[Borgnine]

13. The "latent racism" angle...

...is what they're using to cover their tracks if they feel it's close enough to steal. It'll be the 2008 version of "value voters."

[Dawgs]

15. Anyone that believes in the Bradley effect is a fool.

It's sad to see so many buying into it.

[ecstatic]

18. I've been pessimistic in the past, but I'm starting to agree with you--

There is way more than enough cover for a secretly racist person to safely explain away voting for McCain to a pollster. In other words, there is no need to lie. All sorts of excuses can be made this time around, even from so called former Dems (anything from, I want a woman to win, to, Obama's too inexperienced, etc.).

I think the Bradley effect, if real, would mainly come into play in a situation in which there is ABSOLUTELY NO "SAFE" REASON to claim to be voting for the non-black candidate.

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Ding ding ding

Bradley Effect is nonsense. It isn't even particularly convincing for 25 years ago, much less today. The only reason people still talk about it is because they think it makes them sound smart about politics. The opposite is true. It makes them sound like sound-bite bitten morons.

[renie408]

24. Gee, now I am not only sad, I am a 'sound bitten moron'.

Because I believe that people may allow racism to change their minds in the voting booth?

You don't believe that racism will effect this election and I am the moron?

[alcibiades_mystery]

28. Correction

"Sound-bite bitten moron"

Did you come here for therapy for your sadness, or re you involved in helping us win this election?

[treestar]

37. The Bradley effect is where they are embarassed by it

and tell the pollster the "politically correct" choice. The Palin factor cancels the Bradley effect. They can comfortably tell the pollster they are voting for McCant since they can't be politically incorrect if they are voting for a woman on the ticket.

[renie408]

23. So, you don't believe that due to racism, people will poll one way and vote another?

I guess I am just a sad, naive idiot, because I can see that happening EASILY. I can see people blaming it on something else (but he is inexperienced...), but it would boil down to racism.

I think it is sad that people are trying to ignore racism and it's possible effect on this election.

[chascarrillo]

30. Obama pretty consistently outperformed his polls in the primaries.

We're not ignoring racism. We're acknowledging the historical track record. You, on the other hand, are making up scenarios that don't have a basis in reality.

[democrattotheend]

16. At least 6 points

Preferably at least 10. And I want Obama to be a few points above 50%. I am not sure that a lot of people are lying and saying they are for Obama when they are not, but I do believe that some McCain voters with racial prejudices are claiming to be undecided instead of for McCain if part of their reason for opposing Obama has to do with race.

[Courtesy Flush]

17. I've heard 6%

Not sure what that was based on, but I didn't feel really good until Obama had a 6% cushion.

[Political Heretic]

19. I believe we should be more worried about ELECTION FRAUD

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. Lead for "latent racism" is an anachronism

Doesn't apply.

[renie408]

27. You are kidding, right? You honestly don't think that people will poll one way

and vote another based on racism?

I would be very careful how I throw around the word 'moron' in the future if I were you.

[alcibiades_mystery]

29. No, I don't think so

I think it's a stupid idea that wasn't even well-demonstrated 25 years ago, and I think the people spreading it here are defeatists MORONS, born losers, or trolls.

[Clio the Leo]

31. I'm gonna start posting this as often as I did the "Chill Out" pic a month ago...

..... until folks get it. I certainly recognize the degree to which racism plagues this nation, but there have always been African Americans who the general white public has deemed acceptable. People who they say, "transcends" race, Bill Cosby, Oprah, etc. etc. If my 80 year old prejudiced Alabama uncle if voting for Obama, ANYONE will. So without futher adieu, here's one of my favorite posts I've seen here, and with apologies to the original poster who's name I didn't get....

NEW POLL JUST RELEASED!!!

A whole TON of people are voting for Barack Obama! Black people, old people, white people - including SUPER-

PASTY white people - angry people, happy people - an entire gigantic LOAD of them are voting for Obama!

Contrary to a recent article that states some TOTALLY OBVIOUS stuff, I'm here to convey to you some other

TOTALLY OBVIOUS news: people are fed up with Republicans and would rather vote for a 12 year old spelling bee

champ than pull the lever for four more years of this crap.

And, in case you haven't heard, white folks are even putting down their basketballs long enough to vote for

Obama in...INDIANA.

Indeed, entire legions of pigment-deficient voters are casting their votes for Obama in...MONTANA.

In Iowa, where 106% of residents are white, Obama is absolutely crushing McCain.

Even South Carolina, home to racial harmony and understanding, shows Obama surging to within striking distance

of McCain.

And if that wasn't enough, scores of overalls-wearing white voters (like myself) are having a dueling banjo

contest in West Virginia to see who loves Obama more.

Personally, I've never in my life seen so many white folk excited to vote for a black man. Not even Will Smith

would be getting this many votes, and let's be honest, Will Smith is one lovable dude (though that Scientology

stuff is kind of weird). The only guy who give Obama a run for his money is Wayne Brady, but I heard he's a

libertarian (Paul/Brady '12?).

So here's my press release:

POLL: ENTIRE CRAPLOADS OF WHITE FOLK ARE VOTING FOR THE BLACK DUDE - CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT?

The economy is in the tank. Obama has the brilliance, temperament, and vision to prove to the country that he's

not only capable of being President but that he's going to be a fine one, at that. So ignore this stuff,stop the

hand-wringing about race and the Bradley effect and all that nonsense, and get to work trying to convince these

people that Obama is the best man for job.

[demokatgurrl]

32. I think at least 10% because of so many factors

Not only is there latent racism, there are people who blatantly lie to pollsters for a variety of reasons. And polls are not always accurate. They give a rough idea. To win strongly enough that it can't be stolen or otherwise manipulated, we need a double digit advantage in people who plan to vote for, and actually DO vote for, Obama. I mean, actually get their asses out, RAIN OR SHINE, and vote.

[PaDem]

35. if it's ten percent, then we lose.......

plain and simple. I think with new voters and turnout we'll be ok.

[gkhouston]

33. I'm worried about voter suppression and election fraud, not racism. n/t

[liskddksil]

36. At most this so called effect is worth a point or two

The new registrations and young voters who are being underpolled will cancel it out.