The Daily Widget, Tues 10/7 – O-380, M-158 – Missouri Blue; Obama Leads By 5 Million

phrigndumass

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Tue Oct-07-08 06:44 AM
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The Daily Widget, Tues 10/7 – O-380, M-158 – Missouri Blue; Obama Leads By 5 Million

1. ANALYSIS

Barack Obama’s popular vote lead over John McCain crosses the 5 million mark today. It was just two weeks ago that McCain held a small popular vote lead over Obama. In two weeks time Obama has increased his votes by 3 million while McCain has lost two million votes.

Missouri switches to blue today, as Foxmussen shows Obama with a 3 point lead there. The most interesting number from this poll is 50 … Obama is polling at 50% in Missouri. St. Louis County’s voter registrations have increased by a significant margin this year, and it is now estimated that 20% of all Missouri votes will be cast in Greater St. Louis. I’ve personally spent some time there, and I must say the positive energy there is contagious.

Both Virginia and Florida move into the Weak Obama column today, as they are both polling beyond the margin of error for Obama. Obama now has 304 electoral votes from safe states (beyond moe) compared to 163 for McCain and only 71 electoral votes within the margin of error.

All but one of the state polls that were released yesterday were conducted in swing states, and Obama won 12 of these 14 polls, 10 of them by 5 points or greater. Obama’s average lead in the swing states is approaching 10 points, so at what point do we no longer call these states “swing states?”

Beyond Obama’s Seventeen (which includes NC, MO, IN, MT, ND, GA), the next layer of states includes typically red bastions like Arkansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Texas (34) and West Virginia (5). It seems unfathomable to even consider our prospects in these states, but if trends continue as they have, it will be a legitimate consideration. West Virginia would be the most probable of these states to turn. I’m not suggesting we put a lot of resources in these states, but rather if the present tide continues, these states may wash up on our shores in November.

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

California

Obama 55, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/5, +/- 3.8, 670 LV)
Colorado

Obama 51, McCain 45, B1, N1, M1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Florida

Obama 52, McCain 45, B0, N1, M0 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Georgia

Obama 43, McCain 50 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri

Obama 50, McCain 47, B1, N1, M0 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
New Hampshire

Obama 53, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/5, +/- 3.9, 647 LV)
New Mexico

Obama 45, McCain 40 (Albuquerque Journal, 9/26, +/- 3.8, 659 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 50, McCain 44, Barr 2 (Public Policy Polling, 10/5, +/- 2.8, 1202 LV)
Ohio

Obama 47, McCain 48, B1, N1, M0 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Ohio

Obama 51, McCain 45 (ABC News/Wash Post, 10/5, +/- 3.5, 772 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 49, McCain 38 (Muhlenberg College, 10/5, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 42 (West Chester University, 10/5, +/- 4.5, 504 LV)
Virginia

Obama 51, McCain 39 (Suffolk University, 10/5, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia

Obama 53, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/5, +/- 3.9, 666 LV)
Virginia

Obama 50, McCain 48, B1, N0, M0 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

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