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Nate at 538.com asesses the blockbuster FL/PA/Ohio polls:

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speedoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 10:54 AM
Original message
Nate at 538.com asesses the blockbuster FL/PA/Ohio polls:
As usual he nails it:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com /

I particularly like this part,which is the first visible result of the Dean/Obama 50 state strategy:

"The most critical point may be that the McCain campaign now faces something of a Hobson's choice. In terms of states where they had hoped to play offense, Michigan began to break away from them a week or so ago, and now Pennsylvania -- which had initially reacted well to Sarah Palin -- seems to be doing the same. But if all they're doing is playing defense, that gives Obama so many scratch-off tickets -- Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and perhaps Indiana, Nevada, and Missouri -- that it's essentially inevitable that he'll get lucky in one or more of those states, several of which he already appears to have the lead in.

My gut instinct if I were the McCain campaign is that it might be time to pick one of Pennsylvania and Michigan -- whichever state my internals liked better -- and consolidate my offense there. McCain certainly can't be spending time in Iowa, where he spent much of yesterday, but where he has never led a single public poll against Obama."

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SeeHopeWin Donating Member (649 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
1. Gracias!
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speedoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 10:58 AM
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2. Denada! nt
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 11:00 AM
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3. I hope he picks PA
since he has zero chance there. Let him expend his resources in PA. Bush tried this in 2004, and it damn near cost him the game.
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speedoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. The "Maverick/Gambler" is truly stupid enough to do exactly that.
Logic would say PA is far more difficult for him than Michigan, but he seems to make decisions almost exclusively on impulse.

His problem is that he really has to go after Ohio, Florida, Missouri hard just to stay in the game before attacking anywhere. He's toast.
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Schulzz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
4. I can't see how McCain wins either with his economy mistakes.
Edited on Wed Oct-01-08 11:04 AM by Schulzz
Obama's lead continues to grow in both states. McCain's only chance would be to defend alle Bush states except IA and NM and I don't see that happening either. He can only hope for a major Obama gaffe.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 11:06 AM
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5. Who the hell scheduled him in Iowa? Damn, that was dumb. I like it. Do it more, McCain camp.
:evilgrin:

Maybe they should try for California or New Jersey too.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Maybe because there's a method to their madness?
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. He is going to get his ass kicked in Iowa. His campaign is just dumb
sometimes. I appreciate their stupidity. It is driving Republican strategists crazy.
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