"In post-debate polls after the first faceoff in 2004, John Kerry got virtually the same numbers

[tekisui]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/27/debate.poll/?iref=hpmostpop
Round 1 in debates goes to Obama, poll says

(snip)

Fifty-one percent of those polled thought Obama did the better job in Friday night's debate, while 38 percent said John McCain did better.

Men were nearly evenly split between the two candidates, with 46 percent giving the win to McCain and 43 percent to Obama. But women voters tended to give Obama higher marks, with 59 percent calling him the night's winner, while just 31 percent said McCain won.

"It can be reasonably concluded, especially after accounting for the slight Democratic bias in the survey, that we witnessed a tie in Mississippi tonight," CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib said. "But given the direction of the campaign over the last couple of weeks, a tie translates to a win for Obama.

(snip)

"In post-debate polls after the first faceoff in 2004, John Kerry got virtually the same numbers as Obama did tonight. Polls released a few days later showed Kerry gaining five points in the horse race."

more...


tekisui says:
Now the campaigns will study the tape and see what needs to change and what worked. mcPOW came across as nasty and condescending. Obama was strong, if a little timid. He let mcPOW get the last word, and let some opportunities go by that could have really hurt mcPOW. But, he made no mistakes, and a the leader, he didn't need to risk going "too nasty". The next debate he will be freed up to hit harder, and mcPOW will likely try to soften his cantankerous old man bit. In the end, he'll look phony and uncomfortable.

No game changers last night, the trend will continue towards Obama. Let's get back to a bad news week with mcPOW/Phalin.

[DaveinMD]

1. Kerry did get a bump

after the first debate. The problem was that he was trailing going in. Obama has a solid lead. So that makes it different.

[tekisui]

2. It's not going to hurt him. He may get less of a bump,

but I still think he'll continue to move up next week.

[DaveinMD]

10. I agree

I think he goes from up from 5 to 7 points.

[Greg K]

3. 100% agree. nt

[Franks Wild Years]

4. Yep. Kerry turned a sizeable deficit into...

...a narrow one. If Obama gains like Kerry did, he wins as easily as Clinton did in 1996.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. Did Kerry win over a lot of moderates and independents?

Obama seems to have won them over and most of the people interviewed locally here in Indiana seemed to be moving towards Obama after the debate last night. I realize that it's not scientific by any means but it's still important to note IMHO.

Remember: It's NOT 2004!! Obama does NOT=Kerry!!

[tekisui]

6. Yep, and I expect Obama's margins to continue to improve.

[amborin]

7. bottom line: fight as if we're 10 down and

GOTV

[tekisui]

8. INDEED!

GET TO WORK EVERYBODY!!!

[On the Road]

9. McCain Needed a Clear Win

and he clearly didn't get it last night. Next time, he will have to take even more chances, which will probably hurt him further.