I heard that the Undecideds go for the Challenger...

[Darby]

If the incumbent has all the advantages of incumbency and can't make a convincing case...that's pretty weak.

[Lex]

1. Also any candidate "energizing his base" at this point instead of

harvesting new voters--he's in trouble. This is per James Carville.

Kerry is harvesting new voters, his rallies are open to everyone, he's reaching out.

Bush has invitation only rallies, is still trying to energize his base, and he's turning off the moderates with the GOP Hate Fest in NYC.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Trust me, we historians will have some fun

with this one once the passions cool down enough where I can
actually, and finally, I mean, look at this objectively.

CURSE MY PROFESSORS... that said we do need some objectivity after the passions cool down

[AP]

3. Undecideds have been breaking Dem nationally and in state races

pretty consistently for last 4 years.

Pick a race. Any race. Undecideds have been breaking over 50% to dems, regardless of incumbency. In 2000 prez race, I think it was in the 60-70% range. I remember a NYT article on the analysis of the 2000 vote and commented that this number really shocked Republicans. I'm pretty sure that that Texiera guy has written about this trend recently, so if you get the spelling right for his name and google you might be able to find stuff to support my memory.

[napi21]

5. That's because when an incumbant is running, people vote to

either give him another 4 years, or not. There's a lot of publicity about party voting, but I don't think that's the majority of people. I really believe mopst people vote based upon what's directly impacting them. Their reasons vary. People set their priorities. For some it's abortion, for others it jobs, the economy, security, drugs prices, insurance prices, religious beliefs, etc. There are many reasons. Most people are not staunch Pubs or Dems anymore. Sure, the noicy ones are the ones you hear about, but the majority make their decision on what affects them personally.

[AP]

8. I think a lot of Ind's are really democrats and that's why, regardless

of incumbency, Ind's have been breaking Dem in last four years.

I think in the 90s, Ind's were 2nd A people and libertarians, mostly. Now that almost 30% of voters identify themselves as I, it's different.

I think a lot of Ind's just say they're undecided until the end, but will tend to vote Dem.

[napi21]

9. Don't you think most people are just not extremists?

That's why all candidates move to the center right before the convention? They try to promote not too much diff between the candidates? Why else would the "Who would you rather have a beer with" idea have been put out there? I don't know that most Inds are Dems (although I'd love to).

[AP]

10. there are lots of mod dems and repubs. It's not like being an Ind is very

far on the spectrum from where most of the rest of the voters are.

I just think there's less party-identification. It's not that people don't know what they stand for, it's just that they don't feel like they have to put the D or R tag on what they believe. And I think lots of Inds are really Dems.

[MidwestTransplant]

4. Joe Trippi just said that undecideds break for incumbant

in pres. race as opposed to lower ticket races. First I ever heard that.

[Jim Sagle]

6. Maybe that's why Dean lost the nom. Is Trippi a Pug mole?

[napi21]

7. Are you sur he said that? I doubt that's true.

Common sense tells me that if you're happy with where you are, you'll probably vote for the incumbant because, well, why change?

If you're unhappy, you look for a change.

[MidwestTransplant]

11. Positive. That's why I was so surprised.