Cook Political Report: The Magic Formula: Two Out of Three?

[papau]

www.cookpolitical.com
http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2004/090104.php
The Magic Formula: Two Out of Three?

By Charlie Cook
September 1, 2004

Matthew Dowd, the chief Bush campaign strategist, made the argument on Monday that whichever presidential candidate wins two out of a crucial three states -- Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- will probably be the next president. The next day, without knowing about Dowd's prediction, former Clinton White House Political Director Doug Sosnik made the very same forecast.

While there are certainly other important battleground states, Dowd and Sosnik are likely to be right. The electoral votes in Florida (27), Ohio (20), and Pennsylvania (21) total 68, plenty more than the 52 electoral votes in the seven other states that can be considered toss-ups right now: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and Wisconsin (10).


<snip>

In the end, Dowd and Sosnik are probably right. From Labor Day on, expect to see each campaign and the 527 groups target their money where it matters most: more in the Big Ten, less in the Little Seven (the leaning states), and much more in the Very Big Three

[BillZBubb]

1. That's been my opinion since last year.

If Kerry wins Ohio or Florida, he's in. He can still get in without them by winning Missouri and Tennessee, by that's a tough row to hoe.

If he loses Pennsylvania, he's out. Game over.

[tedoll78]

2. This is exactly why I think..

that Kerry needs a back-door strategy. Focus on one or two other states that can put him over the top in the event that the Big 3 fail him. If he were to win Missouri or North Carolina or Virginia while holding the Gore states, he'd win outright.

The GOP and the Media seem to be going all-out with their focus on the Big 3; we need to shock them the way they did us in 2000 with New Hampshire and West Virginia.

[farmbo]

3. And with Fla State Troopers arresting Minorities on the way to the polls

...And Jeb's hand-picked Secretary of State working overtime to purge voter lists of Democrats...we had better be concentrating our efforts on Ohio and Pa.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. I agree

The math is there for Kerry without Florida or Ohio, but it requires an improbable near-sweep of some very competitive states.

[DeepModem Mom]

5. Then we had better fight to the death for every OH and PA vote --

I don't write Florida off, and my heart, and later possibly my physical presence, is completely with those there trying to avenge the crime of 2000. But I think we can't discount the possibility of anything there, with Jeb in charge -- last time the state legislature was willing to override the will of the people, and send their own Bush electors to D.C.