http://progressivealaska.blogspot.com/2008/09/saradise-lost-chapter-eighty-five-palin.htmlFrom: Ivan Moore
Subject: PRESS RELEASE: New Palin approval rating
To: "Ivan Moore"
Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2008, 7:54 PM
THE HONEYMOON IS COMING TO AN END
Anchorage, September 23, 2008 - In a new survey conducted September 20-22, Ivan Moore Research finds Sarah Palin's positive-negative rating in Alaska taking a real hit, for the first time since Palin was elected in November 2006. The survey was conducted with 500 likely voters in the State of Alaska, for a margin of error of 4.4%. The track of the last five Palin ratings is as follows, along with a comparison point from January 2008:
SURVEY
Rating --
January 2008 -------------------------- 82-11
July 18-22, 2008 ----------------------- 76-18
July 30-31, 2008 ----------------------- 78-15
August 9-12, 2008 --------------------- 80-13
August 30-September 2, 2008 ------- 82-13
September 20-22, 2008 ---------------68-27
The mid-July poll was fielded just after the Trooper Wooten controversy broke. The positive rating of 76% was down from previous measures in the 80's. Despite negative press from the Troopergate issue, the subsequent three polls through the end of September showed Palin's positive rating steadily increasing, and her negative steadily dropping. But in the last three weeks, we've seen damage, with a swing of 14 points from her positive to her negative.
Breakdowns by party affiliation and political ideology for the last two surveys are illustrative of the internal dynamics:
PARTY
August 30-September 2 -- September 19-21 Swing
Democrats -- 60-33 -- 36-59 -- minus 25
Republicans -- 95-3 -- 93-5 -- minus 2
No party/Other party -- 82-12 -- 64-29 -- minus 17.5
Conservative -- 93-3 -- 88-9 -- minus 5.5
Moderate -- 83-13 -- 65-29 -- minus 17
Progressive -- 49-37 -- 23-68 -- minus 28.5
TOTAL -- 82-13 -- 68-27 -- minus 14
We're seeing the numbers cratering among ideological progressives and registered Democrats, probably indicative of the impact of the harsher tone Palin has adopted on the national campaign trail, and the growing fallout from Troopergate. Damage is also significant among moderates and non-affiliated voters, while Republicans and conservatives continue to be almost universally positive.
It should be noted, of course, that a 68-27 is still a very satisfactory rating. But it appears the days of 80 percent approvals in Alaska are over.
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