Obama's best day for state polls todate NM/VA/NC/MN./IA/NJ all show jump--RAZ: Best week for Dem

grantcart

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Mon Sep-22-08 02:37 PM
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Obama's best day for state polls todate NM/VA/NC/MN./IA/NJ all show jump--RAZ: Best week for Dem

Edited on Mon Sep-22-08 02:51 PM by grantcart

On Edit this graph shows that the jump is being felt equally in red and blue states

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/obama_recovery_across_red_yell.php

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_party_weighting_targets_39_0_democrat_33_5_republican

First from Rasmussen

Results from this past week showed that the number of people considering themselves to Democrats spiked early in the week as the economic problems on Wall Street became visible. Overall, it was the best week for the Democrats since July. It remains to be seen whether this might lead to a lasting adjustment or be more of a bounce like that resulting from a party�s nominating convention

It should be noted that the current targets are fairly similar to the ratio that existed when Democrats won control of Congress in 2006. They are also fairly close to the make-up of the electorate in the Presidential elections of 2000 and 1996.

The current targets also suggest a significantly better environment for Democrats than they faced in Election 2004. When President Bush was re-elected, there were far more Republicans in the nation than there are today� and far fewer independent voters.

Now the state polls

New Mexico Obama 53 McCain 42

Barack Obama has opened up a large lead in New Mexico, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

Obama is at 53% in the state, compared to 42% for John McCain. Key to Obama�s performance is that he is only running behind 49-47 to McCain among white voters. In a state with a significant Hispanic population that level of competitiveness with whites will
seal a win. He leads 59-35 with Hispanics.

The state�s US Senate race is looking even less competitive. Tom Udall leads Steve Pearce 57-37.

�New Mexico is probably the state Bush took in 2004 that Barack Obama will have the easiest time winning this time around,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Part of this large lead may be a product of last week�s economic crisis but even
if things return to normal this is a place where the Democrats are going to have a significant advantage.�

Sarah Palin is not very popular with New Mexico voters.

Virginia Obama 51 McCain 45

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c16bc98c-8d29-4b28-8aae-fc8aac9471ad

Women, Suburban DC Voters Help Obama Find Breathing Room on Virginia Battlefield: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/22/08, 6 weeks from Election Day, Democrat Barack Obama edges Republican John McCain, 51% to 45%,

The big surprise here? Obama pulled to within 1 point of McCain in the 50+ voters.

North Carolina Obama 46 McCain 46 Barr 5 Also Hagan 46 Dole 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_92168.pdf

Raleigh, N.C. � With concern over the economy at an all time high, Barack Obama has pulled into a tie with John McCain in North Carolina for the first time in a Public Policy Polling survey.

Each candidate has 46%, with Libertarian Bob Barr picking up 5%. There isn�t much doubt what�s driving this increased level of competitiveness. The numbers of voters in the state listing the economy as their biggest issue has hovered around 50% for most of the year but with the increased turmoil in the last week that
number has now jumped to 58%.

�That�s the direction the election is headed right now and if it remains on that course the state is going to be extremely
competitive.� National polls have shown Barack Obama gaining anywhere from 3 to 9 points in the last week so this 4 point shift in Obama�s direction since last week in North Carolina fits into that framework.

In the state�s Senate race, Kay Hagan is out to her biggest lead yet. She now leads 46-41 over Elizabeth Dole. The economy is driving her success as well.

Minnesota Obama 52 McCain 44 Also Franken/Coleman tied

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election

Obama is now supported by 95% of Democrats, up from 89% in August. The Democrat also holds a modest lead among unaffiliated voters after splitting that vote with McCain last month. McCain gets the vote from 93% of Republicans, up two points from a month ago and fourteen points since July.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 64% of Minnesota voters, McCain by 52%. That�s quite a change from August when McCain drew the higher ratings. In August, many in Minnesota thought their Governor was a likely Vice Presidential running mate for McCain.

As for the running mates, Delaware Senator Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 55% and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin earns such positive reviews from 47%.

New Jersey Obama 55 McCain 42

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/new_jersey/toplines_new_jersey_presidential_election_september_16_2008

Not a surprise but erases doubt from earlier polls about a big win

Iowa 54 McCain 43

-- not really a huge change but all pollsters now confirming that McCain has lost any realistic chance in Iowa

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3762a738-bf31-416c-81cd-d35599c13107