Turnout, Turnout, Turnout

[DaveSZ]

Dear MoveOn member,
After four days of the Republican convention, national polls will likely find President Bush in the lead in the race for the White House. The Bush campaign is banking on using this so-called bounce to claim an early victory.

Of course, this bounce business is a mind game. Polls measure how the nation feels at a given time, but they’re terrible at measuring who’s going to actually get out and vote in battleground states. And when you look at those numbers, this is our race to lose. (See below for a longer explanation.)

So while Karl Rove tries to psych us out with poll numbers next week, we’re going to maintain a laser focus on one critically important task: getting our people to the polls through our ambitious Leave No Voter Behind field program. And our success in that depends on you.

Just because you live outside the battleground states doesn’t mean you have to sit this election out. The best way you can help is by adopting a battleground-state neighborhood as a Precinct Partner. You can call swing state voters to talk about the issues, take day trips there to knock on doors, even spend Election Day in one of the key neighborhoods where the race will be decided, getting Kerry voters to the polls. No matter where you live, you have an important role to play. Just click here to sign up:

http://www.moveonpac.org/precinctpartners/signup.html

Here's why the hype that Bush is winning doesn't stand up to scrutiny:

Nation-wide polls don't matter. This election will be decided in the 20 or so states that aren't firmly in Bush's camp. So while most national polls--which include voters in Texas and California--show a dead heat between Bush and Kerry, polls of the so-called "battleground states" tell a different story. A bipartisan poll from NPR1 has Kerry leading 52-43% in these states, and Fox News2 reports a 47-37% Kerry lead there.
Historically speaking, Bush is in a very weak position. Most experts agree that when a president is seeking re-election, most voters first decide whether he deserves re-election, and then look at the challenger. And most voters aren't liking what they see: Bush's approval rating is very low for an incumbent. Even more importantly, in some recent polls a large portion of voters say the country is on the wrong track, a benchmark that is extremely tough to recover from. Bush is not where he needs to be, and even a significant bounce won’t put him there.
In the swing states, the name of the game is turnout. There are literally millions of people who prefer Kerry to Bush but who are unlikely to vote at all. In fact, there are far more of these folks than there are "swing voters" who haven’t made up their minds yet. Experts on both sides agree that the winner on November 2 will be the candidate who gets his base out in the places where it matters. And it's pretty straightforward to get their attention: we'll call them on the phone, knock on their doors, and invite them to neighborhood house parties. We'll listen to their concerns and talk to them about both candidates' positions on the issues. And we'll remind them repeatedly to show up on Election Day.
We've now got 60 paid organizers on this campaign, by next week we'll have more than 100, and two weeks from tomorrow we'll have 400 more. But our ultimate success depends on you: talking to millions of voters takes tens of thousands of volunteers, and we're counting on you to be among them.

Are you ready? Click here:

http://www.moveonpac.org/precinctpartners/signup.html

We must not fool ourselves into thinking this race is all wrapped up. But we also can't believe the hype when the Bush team tries to claim the same. The bottom line: This race is in your hands. We hope you can help. Thank you.

Sincerely,
--Adam, Eli, Hannah, James, Laura, and the whole MoveOn PAC Team
August 31, 2004

P.S. We've found a lot of the people we need to staff this campaign, but we're still hiring experienced and committed political or social change organizers. Think you fit the bill and want to work for MoveOn PAC in a swing state through the election? Find out more and start the application process at:

http://www.moveonpac.org/lnvb/organizersurvey.html

FOOTNOTES
1. http://www.npr.org/features/feature.php?wfId=3876748
2. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,130234,00.html

PAID FOR BY MOVEON PAC www.moveonpac.org
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.


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[fujiyama]

1. Check out the turnout info

on Palm Beach County, FL in today's primary election. Dems beat repukes by almost 10 points! I hope this gives some indication of the turn out.



Registration and Turnout
(REP)

Completed Precincts: 665 of 695 (95.68%)

Reg/Turnout Percent
(REP) Registration 228,250
Total Turnout 55,648 24.38%
Election Day Turnout 44,891 19.67%
Absentee Turnout 10,757 4.71%
Provisional Turnout 0 0.00%


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Registration and Turnout
(DEM)

Completed Precincts: 665 of 695 (95.68%)

Reg/Turnout Percent
(DEM) Registration 318,085
Total Turnout 109,043 34.28%
Election Day Turnout 84,662 26.62%
Absentee Turnout 24,381 7.66%
Provisional Turnout 0 0.00%

[DaveSZ]

2. Right

It's going to come down to who wants it more!

Don't lose hope.

I'm going to put on my Democrat pin for this cycle I guess ha.

[fujiyama]

3. Yeah

It was nice to see that after all the gloom and doom threads today. It looks like dems are very motivated. I hope that sustains itself in Nov. Also another piece of good news is that Theresa LePore the butterfly ballot lady from Palm Beach County looks like she's about to lose to Arthur Anderson. LePore was a "democrat" earlier but switched to being an independant and was backed heavilly by republicans.