Why Bush's convention bounce won't matter

[NMDemDist2]

After four days of the Republican convention, national polls will likely find President Bush in the lead in the race for the White House. The Bush campaign is banking on using this so-called bounce to claim an early victory.

Of course, this bounce business is a mind game. Polls measure how the nation feels at a given time, but they’re terrible at measuring who’s going to actually get out and vote in battleground states. And when you look at those numbers, this is our race to win. (See below for a longer explanation.)

So while Karl Rove tries to psych us out with poll numbers next week, we’re going to maintain a laser focus on one critically important task: getting our people to the polls through our ambitious Leave No Voter Behind field program. And our success in that depends on you.

Since you live in one of the states where the election will be won or lost, you have the ability to make a big difference. Just by talking to a few voters in your neighborhood or one nearby and explaining Bush and Kerry's positions on the issues, you can play a key role in winning this election. To sign up to be a Leave No Voter Behind leader, just click here:
http://www.moveonpac.org/lnvb/


Here's why the hype that Bush is winning doesn't stand up to scrutiny:

Nation-wide polls don't matter. This election will be decided in the 20 or so states that aren't firmly in Bush's camp. So while most national polls--which include voters in Texas and California--show a dead heat between Bush and Kerry, polls of the so-called "battleground states" tell a different story. A bipartisan poll from NPR1 has Kerry leading 52-43% in these states, and Fox News2 reports a 47-37% Kerry lead there.
Historically speaking, Bush is in a very weak position. Most experts agree that when a president is seeking re-election, most voters first decide whether he deserves re-election, and then look at the challenger. And most voters aren't liking what they see: Bush's approval rating is very low for an incumbent. Even more importantly, in some recent polls a large portion of voters say the country is on the wrong track, a benchmark that is extremely tough to recover from. Bush is not where he needs to be, and even a significant bounce won’t put him there.
In the swing states, the name of the game is turnout. There are literally millions of people who prefer Kerry to Bush but who are unlikely to vote at all. In fact, there are far more of these folks than there are "swing voters" who haven’t made up their minds yet. Experts on both sides agree that the winner on November 2 will be the candidate who gets his base out in the places where it matters. And it's pretty straightforward to get their attention: we'll call them on the phone, knock on their doors, and invite them to neighborhood house parties. We'll listen to their concerns and talk to them about both candidates' positions on the issues. And we'll remind them repeatedly to show up on Election Day.

[joanne]

1. Thank you!

:bounce:

[newsguyatl]

2. thank GOD for moveon

and they're right, it IS all about the turnout!!!

MORE people ardently want bush OUT than people want him to stay IN.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. In a week or two, the nationwide polls will matter

Sorry, but it's wishful thinking that the national mood is irrelevant outside the isolated tossup states. A 2 or 3 point swing nationwide will grip those states along with all the 60/40 avalanche states. Kerry needs to win the popular vote based on the current dynamics of the electoral college, which slightly favor the Republicans. Only once has the presidency gone to a candidate who lost the popular vote by more than 8/10 of one percent.

[bringbackfdr]

4. In two weeks ...

Shrub's expected bounce will have flattened back out, no?

[ItsMyParty]

5. Not sure Bush is going to get much of a bounce

Bob Barr was interviewed yesterday and that's basically what he said. He said it will be the same thing as the Dem Convention "no" bounce because things are tight, etc. But, I say it's also because no one is watching. Just like no one but the faithful watched us. No one is interested in another Bush speech. They've been there and done that.

[ItsMyParty]

6. Not sure Bush is going to get much of a bounce

Bob Barr was interviewed yesterday and that's basically what he said. He said it will be the same thing as the Dem Convention "no" bounce because things are tight, etc. But, I say it's also because no one is watching. Just like no one but the faithful watched us. No one is interested in another Bush speech. They've been there and done that.