Today's Daily Kos Tracking Poll: Obama 47% McCain 47% Barr 2% Nader 2%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/13/111655/245/657/597333


It seems there is a convergence between all the public polls and the partisan polls...


Hope is on the way...

[VeraAgnes]

1. I don't see this as a great positive finding.

Why are we not at least 10 points ahead?

[dennis4868]

3. WHY?

because negative/lying attacks work...that's why and until the dems understand that and actually do it we will not be in the WH to make Change!

[scheming daemons]

4. Please... stop that.... you know damn well why....

30% of this country will NEVER vote for a black man.


That means Obama has to get 5 out of every 7 of the rest of us.


Right now, he's getting 4.5 out of that 7.


It's getting there.

[flamingdem]

8. arrg, Is it 30% ?

That is sad.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Where's The 30% Coming From?

I would like to see a citation...It may be that high but I doubt 30% of Americans would admit it...

[flamingdem]

10. I would too. It seems anecdotal, any reliable polls or studies out there?

I could believe 15-20 per cent but ... 30 is nearly one in three.

There are so many minorities, how could that work?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Doubt You Could Do A Study

Most folks, even bigots, in private, would be ashamed to admit they wouldn't vote for an African American...

[VeraAgnes]

12. Excuse me??????????

You lost me at hello.

[flamingdem]

2. I don't buy that Nader 2% thing, who in the world would vote for him now?

That seems like a Red Herring meant to pit Dems against Green party people

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Take it up with Markos Moulitsas who commissioned the poll and Opinion Research who performed it

~

[Skidmore]

5. I don't buy the tied polls. I just don't think they are accurate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Please See Post # 6

~

[maseman]

13. The kos's daily poll (published is a 3 day)

Has McSame up 1% over BO 47% to 46%.

[regnaD kciN]

14. I have SERIOUS qualms about the dKos poll...

Although I'd like to have an impartial poll other than Gallup, Rasmussen, etc., I look at the poll internals, and can't deny that it appears to have a strongly pro-Democratic bias.

Specifically, Obama is only winning 83% of Democrats while McCain is winning 90% of Republicans, while both "independent" and "other" blocs are going strongly towards McCain, and the race is still tied? How is that possible? The answer is that the poll is designed for a voter model with a 10-percent Democratic advantage (D 36% - R 26%). Now, I happen to think Democrats will turn out in greater numbers than Republicans, but ten points? Even if we set it as certain polling organizations did before skewing the polls in the G.O.P.'s direction a few weeks ago, it was still only about D 34% - R 28%. Weight voters in that direction, and even dKos would show a McCain lead of several points.

I know that the immediate assumption of many people when they heard of the dKos poll was that it was merely a progressive organization trying to spin the news in a liberal direction. Unfortunately, looking at the internals, there seems good reason to accept that assumption as fact. Don't shoot the messenger.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Gallup Has It A Two Point Race...Rasmussen Has It A Three Point Race...Princeton Survey Has It Even.

Several means more than two or three but not many...I don't see Obama that far behind...

[regnaD kciN]

16. "Several," to me, includes two or three...

...but, if you want to debate that, I'd say that the dKos poll, if weighted according to a more credible likely-voter profile, might well be showing totals worse for Obama than Gallup, Rasumssen, etc.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Well, Gallup Doesn't Release It's Party ID Controls So We Will Never Know

Rasmussen weights for party and they have the Dems + 8...

That's not much different than Research 2000's + 9...