Today's Gallup tracking poll: McCain 47%-Obama 45%

[jenmito]

McCain's comin' down! Never hit 50%!



http://www.gallup.com/poll/110353/Gallup-Daily-McCain-47-Obama-45.aspx

[my3boyz]

1. I think he did hit 50. I'm so happy he is losing his bounce though. Hope it continues.

I want him to be back down to the 44 that he could not go over at first.

[jenmito]

2. I just added the graph. I don't see McCain hitting 50%. n/t

[my3boyz]

5. Good! Glad I was wrong about that. nt

[jenmito]

9. So am I.

:D

[AzNick]

31. I do see 50% though .... n/t

[jenmito]

41. Not for MCCAIN. n/t

[Liberal_in_LA]

34. he didn't hit 50 in the gallup

[jenmito]

43. Thanks. That's what I was talking about.

:hi:

[Hamlette]

38. I think the op meant didn't hit 50 in this poll n/t

[jenmito]

42. Correct. Thanks!

:hi:

[still_one]

3. Most likely the slight convention bounce that so many predicted is now fading. We are going to win

[jenmito]

6. Many people were worried it wasn't just a convention bounce but a permanent rise due to

the loser Palin.

[gratefultobelib]

4. Oh my, this is great news!

[jenmito]

8. Looks like as people see Palin off-script (even though her answers were well-scripted), they're

not so crazy about her anymore.

[BlueIdaho]

7. Not bad for GOPallup! nt.

[darius15]

10. Fading convention bounce.

[jenmito]

13. I was worried it was more than a bounce. I'm glad I was wrong.

[AzNick]

32. As I said: McCain did not pass Obama...

Except in the Gallup poll.

Unless something stupid happens, like a nasty October surprise, McCain can't come back, as the truth about Palin starts to come out and people start to understand what she really is.

Come on, people, just a little push!

[jenmito]

33. Well...

he DID pass him in a COUPLE other polls, but the methods were suspect.

I'm not worried.

[AzNick]

45. Me neither. A big solid 10 point bounce would have....

Obama had about a 6 to 8 points lead, meaning that it would take 3 to 4 % of the people to change their minds to go even.

I believe McCain just did about that. It's not hard to convince these people back, because they can't convince those they did not convince. Our voter's base is pretty solid. These are people who hate Bush, hate McCain, hate Palin.

The 3 to 4% of possible electors can come back and will come back if we stick to the message and show guts and fighting spirit.

I believe that's what motivates them before all.

Kerry lost by not fighting back. He also lost me, even if I voted for him because I thought him less worse than Bush, but he did not show his fighting spirit, which he probably had in Nam, and through his political carreer.

He did not show it when it mattered most and that's why he lost, on top of the election fraud.

Obama shows he can fight back, that's the big plus over Kerry.

[mvd]

11. Great to see the drop!

I think Obama will be slightly ahead in a few more days.

[jenmito]

12. I agree. I guess Palin wasn't the game-changer

McCain hoped for!

[Kber]

15. More like the candidate from nowhere

who's going to take him nowhere.

[jenmito]

16. ...who knows nothing.

:D

[mvd]

20. And just wait until the VP debate

I think Palin will be a NEGATIVE for McCain after that. :hi:

[jenmito]

23. I agree...

the contrast will be OBVIOUS. :hi:

[Sugarcoated]

14. Figure in also . . .

that Obama always polls lower on the weekends. Younger voters, 20-30 year olds, are out more than the older folks on the weekend. I bet he's 1 or 2 points ahead by Monday or Tuesday.

[jenmito]

17. I always forget to figure that into the equation but you're right.

I bet he'll be up again soon, too. I also credit it to Palin looking uninformed in her interview.

[iiibbb]

18. Debates are the main turning point. Watching polls is like watching

the stock market.

[jenmito]

19. True. And this time OBAMA is the one with the low bar. I bet he's going to surprise a LOT of

people!

[iiibbb]

21. I sure hope so...

I would like to see Obama hit a proverbial home run... but a triple will be fine. The way the press is bending over backwards to be "fair" a double or single just leaves too much room for them to equivocate.

[jenmito]

24. I think he's already shaping up. Did you see how good he was at the "service forum"

compared to the "faith forum" regarding the crispness of his answers?

[livetohike]

22. McCain has seen his high

GOBAMA!

[jenmito]

25. And it wasn't 50%!

GOBAMA!

[The Revolution]

26. Compare the convention bounces

Obama's convention bounce looks a lot better.

[jenmito]

27. Even though his DNC coverage only lasted less than one day due to McCain's VP pick.

[budkin]

28. Bye bye bounce.

Obama will retake the lead by next weekend.

[jenmito]

29. Bye bye bird's nest (Palin's hair).

I bet it will be sooner than that!

[AtomicKitten]

30. With resolve and determination, it's go time.

"Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3W5GDkgf2w

[freespirit5]

35. McSame is on the downward slope

Obama has the momentum

[jenmito]

39. Yup. Not exactly as he had hoped!

:D

[4_Legs_Good]

36. That almost certainly means they're tied today at Gallup

What'd it go on the 3 day tracking

5 5 5 3 2 the last few days? In order to balance out that 5, today is probably tied. Maybe we're ahead by one... Down by one at the worst.

And climbing.

David

[jenmito]

40. Thanks for that summary-I hope/bet you're right!

:hi:

[regnaD kciN]

44. Could be the case...

...although some poll-watchers over at dKos and elsewhere think that McCain was up by 8 on Tuesday, which would mean that he was actually up by 5 yesterday. It only shows the difficulty in trying to analyze the days of a tracking poll. (I tried doing it myself until a post by Nate Silver on 538.com showed how wildly inaccurate such calculations can be, especially due to lack of precision and subsequent rounding error in the totals -- for example, if McCain was really up by 2.5 yesterday and 2.4 today, that's far different than if he was up by 3.4 yesterday and 1.5 today.)

I think the bigger thing to notice, and one not really based on the day-to-day scores, is that McCain is losing share not only to Obama, but (and more importantly) to "undecided" as well. At his peak, he was up by 5% with only 7% undecided. Now, it's 2% with 8% undecided. That's a lot easier gap to make up. And the fact that he has been losing total "market share" each day is a clearer sign than the overall difference between the two candidates that his "convention bounce" is, indeed, fading.

[Hippo_Tron]

37. Most polls are showing a statistical dead heat

This one is gonna be a nail-biter folks.

[jenmito]

46. I think it's gonna break for Obama BIG after the debates.

[sniffa]

47. ZOMG WE'RE ALL DOOMD

[Imagevision]

48. Palin could add to numbers drop depending on Biden, c'mon Joe!

[madcaplaughed]

49. obama needs to be bold!

I think obama could take a huge lead and news cycle run if he laid out a plan for legalizing marijuana. he already lost the extreme right to palin, and the polls reflect that. Doing something like so bold and progressive could get him lots of independents and undecideds if he talks of how much it will benefit the economy.