McCain seems to have pulled slightly ahead in the Electoral Vote but has he really??

[LynneSin]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

This is the first time I've seen McCain pull ahead in weeks. But then I hovered over some of the states we had been winning to see who did the polls.

Nevada has a group called Insider Advantage.

So I google Insider Advantage to find this website:


http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/

And I thought Just who are these people running the site: Matthew Towery, Charles Clay, Pierce Howard and Dick Pettys - so I google their names:

Seems to be a Matt Towery who writes a column for Town Hall, a notoriously right-wing fundie blog site. And if there is any question that there are two Matt Towery's - well that article about "Obama losing Traction Among Younger Voters" appears both on this Town Hall Blog page AND the polling place
http://townhall.com/columnists/MattTowery

I didn't find much of interest on any of the other candidates but I hold suspect any polls run by a guy who blogs for Town Hall. It will be interesting to see how Nevada polls the next update when an organization not so blatantly right-wing spewing does the job.

[DemzRock]

1. Insider Advantage? Isn't that the pollster that thinks the AA vote will be split? Yeah right! n/t

[bushisanidiot]

2. That's bullshit. McCondo does NOT have New Mexico.

we will take ohio, virginia and possibly Nevada. It won't even be close.

[LynneSin]

4. Rasmussan tends to lean right, so yeah I question that one too

and if you look at the trend, Obama has been doing well with the help of one of those popular Udall cousins on the senate ticket.

But for me, that NM poll just says we need to work a bit harder to ensure victory!

[seabeyond]

3. nm, nevada, colo and iowa.... 2004 watching those states, about 7 in the evening

iw atched change happen there. i dont trust what happened in those four states in 2004. i think they went blue

[bushisanidiot]

7. I agree with you.. add OHIO to that list!

we CANNOT let them steal another election.

people need to be double and triple checking that they are REGISTERED to vote! and vote early in the day if at all possible.

[seabeyond]

9. ohio and florida were obvious in the face theft. also texas and nm the machines

switched the votes when kerry was pressed. showed a bush vote. people were new to the machines and many just hit complete at the end without checking. by 2006 we knew to make sure it registered correctly.

2004 early vote it was showing people would try to correct 2, 3, 4 times and couldnt get machine to vote kerry. some just gave up. they knew this thru out early election and still had not corrected on election day

[xanadu1979]

5. perilous to ignore polls

Funny, I predicted earlier in the week when Obama was way ahead on electoral-vote.com that McCain would eventually pull ahead after the state polls caught up with the convention. A few people here trashed me for it and said there was no way. It looks like I was right.

Regardless of the exact accuracy of every poll, it's clear that Obama's campaign is going through some tough times right now. Just ignoring the polls or blaming them on bias doesn't fix the problem. It's not just that one poll in Nevada that has McCain up, almost every poll from the past week and a half has shown McCain surging. They aren't all biased.

[LynneSin]

6. As long as we're looking at the Electoral Vote - this shows where our work needs to be done

Here's what I like - new polls came out for Pennsylvania and Michigan by polling groups that tend to favor republicans (Rasmussan and the notoriously right-wing Insider Advantage) - and get this they still have Obama ahead.

Welcome to DU

[LooseWilly]

11. I think its safe

to ignore this particular poll. It seems to have found some source that puts Ohio, NM, Virginia, and Colorado into McCain's pocket.... and I'm not buying him picking up all of them. I think it's cherry picked polls put into one basket... meant to fuck with heads.

Ignore this one. It's safe to do so.

[yellowcanine]

8. EV.com appears to treat all polls equally. Clearly that is not a good idea.

There should be some weighting of polls which have a better track record.

[Jennicut]

10. Insider advantge is right wing propaganda, Barack still has the Electoral Vote lead

[dtotire]

12. Fivethirtyeight .com has McCain ahead 272-266.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/expectations-and-realities.html

[LynneSin]

14. That's about what I have with EV

But they have McCain winning a state other than Nevada - which is what put him at 270 on EV

[PVnRT]

13. It's just a leftover convention surge

Palin's disaster on ABC is going to start reversing those numbers, as will the debates ahead.

[Hugin]

15. Great work, Lynnesin!

:thumbsup: