Democracy Corps (D) Poll-McCain -48% Obama 46% Nader 2% Barr 1%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/dcor_091008fq9.pdf

[elkston]

1. Nader is bad news [Changed subject title ;-) ]

I wonder if Nader voters would have just sat it out (somewhat good), or voted for Obama as a "lesser of evils" (better).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Suspect His 2% Support Will Collapse To Less Than 1%

I'd bank on it...He will end up in Pat Buchanan , circa 2000, .050 territory, and he was running on the Reform ticket...

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Nader will be lucky to end up with .4% (that's point four)

[Yavin4]

3. He's Not Even On Every Ballot

This is why these polls are really bad.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Think Stan Greenberg Knows How To Do A Poll

He's worked for Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Tony Blair...

[maseman]

23. I read the other day that he is on 35 of 50 states

of course this question is asked the same way in every state that is sampled. Not on in Ohio which is a big deal.

[Better Believe It]

19. Why's That? Don't You Think Obama Can Win Over Any Of Nader's Supporters?

It's a contest. It's call an election. And here's how elections are suppose to work.

Presidential Election Voting 101 Rules:

Rule Number 1: None of the presidential candidates, including Obama, are entitled to any of the votes that other candidates actually receive on election day.

Rule Number 2: Obama, just like McCain, Nader, Barr and all the other presidential candidates must try to persuade and win over potential voters to their campaigns. They must compete for votes and again are not entitled to any votes they don't win!

Now if you think that's just terribly, perhaps the Constitution could be changed so that people could be prohibited from voting for anyone who is not a Republican or Democrat running for office.

If that were in play now, why Obama and McCain would not have to try and win over people who might otherwise vote for Barr, Nader, the Green Party candidate, various socialist candidates, etc.,

Now wouldn't that be just wonderfully democratic?

No more election "spoilers"!

No more having to win votes from people who are thinking of voting for third party and independent candidates!

That would make it so much easier to run, rig and control elections.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. He Has A Right To Run For Pres...It's Arguable If Running For President Is The Right Thing To Do...

~

[Better Believe It]

25. But That's Not For You To Decide .....

it's up to the person to decide if they want to run for office and if it is the "right thing" to do.

You don't get to decide for everyone else.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I Can Decide What Is Wise And What Isn't Wise

His running is unwise...What I can not do is compel you or him to accept what I believe to be wise and unwise...

[Better Believe It]

32. You Can't Decide For Others

You can have an opinion on whether or not a person should run for office, but your opinion is only that .... one persons opinion.

Others can conclude that it's wise for someone to run for office.

And a candidate for office clearly believes that it's wise for her/him to run for office or they would not be running.

And that's their decision to make. Not ours. So you, I and others should not try to obstruct their right to run for public office and the right of people to vote for that candidate by placing roadblocks in their path. That would be anti-democratic.

Can we agree on that much?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. Depends

There has to be some criteria for getting on the ballot or else the ballot would read like a small phone book but, yeah, I agree with you in spirit...

That being said, I don't think folks around here will be happy if the difference between beating McCain and losing to McCain are the number of votes received by Ralph Nader...

[Better Believe It]

43. What Makes You Think That Obama Can't Win Those Votes?

And if he can't, whose fault is that? The voters perhaps? No candidate is somehow entitled to another candidates votes .... period.

With their money and other resources Obama and McCain have a far better opportunity to win over voters than Nader or any third party candidate.

It's hardly an even playing field for independent/third party candidates so what's there to complain or whine about? Obama and McCain have a clear advantage.

And why do you think that Nader supporters would vote for Obama if Nader was not on election ballots? That's a rather bold, arrogant and I think false assumption.

If that happened, I'm sure the great majority of Nader supporters would sit out this election. Some would vote for Obama, others for McCain and still others for socialist or other third party candidates but it highly unlikely Obama would get most of those votes .... I'd say damn near impossible!

[New Dawn]

33. The problem with election laws

Is that they try to keep all 'third party' and independents off the ballot, with massive ballot access restrictions. If the leadership of the Democratic Party was only concerned about preventing the Republicans from winning close elections, they would just begin passing Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) for president in every state government that the Democratic party controls. IRV is where you rank candidates by preference (the system already has been used for quite a while in Australian elections).

[Better Believe It]

45. I Could Support Instant Runoff Voting

[MadBadger]

4. Did you see those bullshit insider advantage poll?

They have Obama down 1 in Michigan, saying he loses the 18-29 vote by 14% but wins all the other age groups...but still loses. The whole poll doesnt make sense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Michigan%20General%20Election%20Poll%209%2011%2008.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Pollster .Com Has Busted Insider Advantage

They released a poll where the combined categories of men and women added up to over 100%...

That's why you need to look at all the polls...When I look at all the polls I can arrive at no other conclusion that this race has become really, really close...

I still think the winning parlay for Obama is Kerry States + IA + NM + CO...That leaves little margin for error...

[MadBadger]

9. I think Ohio at this point is dead even, so he could win there it there as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. McSame Can't Win Without Ohio

We can...

But then we probably can't win without Michigan...

They can...

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at either Obama's or McSame's headquarters... They have guys who can break a state down by precinct... I saw KKKRove do it on FAUX...

[MadBadger]

15. I dont think we can win Ohio without winning Michigan

And vice versa for McCain. I'm still hoping that we could win VA or maybe steal NC, because we are down 3-4 points in each of those states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Here's RCP's Poll Of Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

We are down by nine in NC and three in VA...

[MadBadger]

18. We arent down 9 in NC...

a republican polling firm, civitas, and a democratic polling firm, PPP, both have us down 3-4 points in NC. 48-44, and 47-44. SUSA's poll was a huge outlier because both of those polls have the dems with a 13% ID advantage, while SUSA has our advantage of 1%. This thing is very close there.

[Awsi Dooger]

22. We are down 9 in North Carolina

If McCain is tied nationally or has a slight lead, that translates to high single digits in north Carolina. Perhaps low double digits.

You can't look at a state poll and accept it at face value if it makes no sense in relationship to the national averaging. I realize I'm the only one around here stating that, but it will play out as accurate.

If Obama wants to return to a small deficit in North Carolina, he needs to regain the national advantage. It's as simple as that. It's like a blanket that covers the nation and the individual states are adjusted based on their typical partisanship.

North Carolina is 17% liberal and 40% conservative. That's all you need to know. An absolute 50/50 swing state is 21% liberal, 32% conservative. So there's no way a 17/40 equates to a 3-4 point deficit in a dead even race nationally. You guys can pretend otherwise all you want but you'll be disappointed in the end.

I might as well pretend my 240 yard drive leaves a wedge second shot to a 600 yard par 5.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Yes-States Don't Vote In Isolation

And nat'l polls are a tool albeit a crude one to give us some sense of the electorate... To conduct a fifty state poll is cost prohibitive...That's why they are so rare...SUSA and Rasmussen can pull it off because they robocall but that's still a lot of data to accumulate...

I remember ARG did it in 00 and they were off in about ten states...

[Statistical]

35. Couldn't race have something to do with it, especially in NC?

Couldn't race have something to do with it, especially in NC?

DEMS in NC may vote for Obama at a lower % than DEMS nationally.
So not only are there more REP (as a %) in NC than nationally, the DEMS are less "loyal".

538 had a good blog on this. It is borne out by the fact that congressional races are diverging.
DEMS candidates overall lead in NC however minority DEM candidates are trailing white DEM candidates by 3-4 pts.

[amborin]

12. because

the 18-29 age group is prolly way larger demographically

so it out weighs the other age groups

[MadBadger]

14. lol

[KingFlorez]

7. Nader won't pull anywhere close to two percent

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I'm Suspecting .050 Buchanan Territory...

~

[Freddie Stubbs]

10. Don't beleive the biased coprorate-MSM-faschist-rigged polls!

;)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Your Saracsm Is Handy

I have been saying there are polls done by Democratic pollsters we can use as a benchmark...

Democrat Stan Greenberg's Democracy Corps Poll

Peter Hart works with a Republican , Peter McInturf? to do the WSJ/NBC Poll

And Democrat Celinda Lake works with Republican Ed Goeas to do the Battleground Poll...

Most of the polls seem to converge...

[Solitarymoth]

27. lol

Good one.

[WI_DEM]

11. So things are pretty much tied up.

[FVZA_Colonel]

24. This is basically where I thought it would be right now.

And with signs Obama is gaining in some swing states, I'm not that worried right now.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. lol

Literally.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. The Person Who Coducted The Poll

Stanley Bernard Greenberg (born May 10, 1945) is a leading Democratic pollster and political strategist who has advised the campaigns of the Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry, as well as hundreds of other candidates and organizations in the United States and around the world, including British Prime Minister Tony Blair.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan_Greenberg


on edit- That's why they put a (D) after the name of the pollster... The (D) is to show that the poll was done by a partisan organization...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

31. "the" Bill Clinton?

:rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. That's Wikipedia's Tortured Grammar Not Mine...

The fact that you would attribute it to me without looking at the citation reveals more about you than it can ever reveal about me...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

38. I didn't attribute it to you. You attributed it to yourself by linking it.

Did you look at it?

:rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. If You Take "the" out it reads right...

In 1980, Stan Greenberg, a professor in comparative politics at Yale University, helped Congressman Christopher Dodd win his bid for US Senate, polling for him out of his basement in New Haven, Connecticut. He founded “The Analysis Group," a loose affiliation of academics and research professionals working on targeting and polling, which over the next two decades would grow into Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.

After helping to elect Bob Carr to Congress in Michigan in 1982 and 1984, Greenberg challenged the national Democratic Party in 1985 with a study showing widespread defection of Democratic voters to Ronald Regan in Michigan’s Macomb County. The research highlighted the alienation of white, middle class, and blue collar voters from the Democratic Party. Greenberg urged the party to reclaim its base by addressing frustrations rooted in issues of race and class and by reconnecting with the lives and aspirations of working and middle class America. With those ideas, Greenberg emerged as the polling advisor to the Democratic Leadership between 1988 and 1994, the formative period for the renewed Democratic Party.

....


In 1990, five-term Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton asked Greenberg to help him with a tough primary campaign. Drawing on his previous work and new Arkansas focus groups, Greenberg helped craft a winning strategy that took Clinton to a sixth term as Governor, ensuring a platform for his presidential challenge. Greenberg became one of a core group of people working with Governor Clinton on the ideas, themes, and strategy that guided his successful campaign for President. By 1993, Clinton would be in the White House, and Greenberg, his pollster, described by Eleanor Clift as the “house philosopher."

In 1993, the company began applying its winning ideas to helping progressive leaders around the world. Drawing on years of academic work in South Africa, Greenberg worked with Nelson Mandela and the African National Congress to win their historic 1994 campaign and start the country’s transition from apartheid to democracy. In 1996, the company began working with British Labour MPs Tony Blair and Gordon Brown as they fought to renew the Labour Party in the United Kingdom and lead them to their comeback victory in 1997, and historic re-elections in 2001 and 2005. Greenberg also worked with Gerhard Schröder on the 1998 victory that made him German Chancellor, and with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. In all, the company has provided research and strategic advice to the campaigns or governments of the leaders of over a dozen countries.


http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=400

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. "Greenberg Quinlan Rosner News."

Pardon me. I stand corrected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. No Problem... I Just Think It's Good To Have A Poll By A Democratic Pollster As A Benchmark

~

[progressivebydesign]

30. Do I have to say this every 4 years? Fuck you Ralph Nader!! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Don't Fret...His Numbers Will Decline

I suspect he ends up with one half of a percent or so but even that could be critical in a hotly contested state...

[Better Believe It]

46. You Don't Try Something Original That Didn't Come Out Of The DLC Talking Points

[trthnd4jstc]

44. Did anyone notice the 52% approval of Palin, and the 49% approval for Biden.

America. Where an Idiot can become president. And a two yeared Governor can become VP. We still will have above 270 Electoral Votes, even if things go the way that this poll shows. We need to figure out how to get people to really consider what four more years of Republican Policies will do to us.