Barring a miracle for Bush, Kerry cannot lose. Here is why.

abrock

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Tue Aug-31-04 12:53 PM
Original message

Barring a miracle for Bush, Kerry cannot lose. Here is why.

Edited on Tue Aug-31-04 12:54 PM by abrock

Don't despair fellow Democrats. If anything, you should be rejoicing. The Republican convention could not possibly have started off worse, and I think it will only go downhill from here. If Kerry hadn't sewn up the election before, he will have after this week. Here is why:

1) The biggest key to any election is momentum. Right now, neither candidate has any. Kerry never had much, because he has been careful and cautious (some say he lacks the killer instinct, but I'll debunk that in my second point) not to blow too much money and lose whatever gains he had when the Repub convention nullified them. The time to attack is dawning at the end of the week, and Kerry is going to come out swinging. Notice Kerry has 15 million more in ready cash than Bush does:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/fec/index.cash.html

There is a reason for this. He's going to attack when the time is right, when it will impact the most, and when Bush will have no chance to recover from it, no matter what kind of smear campaign or rebuttal spin he uses.

2) The Republicans think this is going to be a close race all the way down to the wire, because they believe they are fighting an opponent who won't fight back in any meaningful way. Starting at the end of the week, they're going to be in for a VERY rough surprise. Kerry earned his reputation as a powerful closer for a reason. Remember, he was a trial lawyer who got convictions on mobsters. Who possibly could be better to finish Bush off with a series of punches his campaign never even saw coming.

3) One of the increasingly clear reasons Bush is doomed is because nobody trusts him. His base trusts him on international issues like terror and iraq, but not even his base supports his failed economic policies and lies about those policies. Excepting his billionaire and coroprate base (who have profitted more from the war than anyone else in the world... far more than the Iraqi people, thats for sure), nobody supports his domestic agenda. In fact, most people don't even think he has one to speak of. I've spoken to multiple Bush supporters in the past couple of weeks, and none of them can even express why they'll vote for him in November. The Christian conservatives in this country have a mindset that only the Republican party supports their values, so they'll support a party that causes far more deaths each year with its increasingly relaxed laws on gun control, than on abortion, even assuming for a minute that abortion IS taking a life. Couple these points with the fact both sides suspect or even flat out believe Bush is behind the smear boat campaign, AND that said campaign has been now proven to be a farce, AND that Bush doesn't have a military service record yet claims to be a heroic leader slash wartime president AND a gentle conservative peacetime president... and you've been told Kerry is a flip-flopper?

4) The ammo Bush is giving Kerry to beat him into the ground with could not have been better had Kerry put the words directly into Bush's own mouth. "Catastrophic Success"? "War on terror can't be won"? You can't make this kind of stuff up. The conservative media establishment has thus far ignored these statements for the most part, but as the week wears on (and we already have seen Bush recant the above phrase about the war on terror once, who knows, by the end of the week he might have changed position a few more times... TAKE THAT GUILIANI!) we're going to see a lot more of it as the networks find it impossible to ignore. The fact is, if Kerry and Edwards call him on it, the media has to talk about it, one way or the other, and all the spin in the world can't change the words that came out of Bush's own mouth.

5) The biggest reason that Bush is through, however, is that the United States of America is fucking fed up with this incompetent Commander in Chimp ruining our country's reputation in the world while he destroys the environment, runs up the deficit, and ruins the future for us and our children. Everywhere you go people are Bush bashing, no matter what state you live in, even Texas. (One old lady told me 'He gives this whole state a bad name') As soon as these people see Kerry as a viable alternative, and they haven't yet because he's been quiet, the polls are going to dump bush down into the 33-36 percent range of the overall popular vote, and he'll lose the key states he needs to win. (Ohio, Florida, Penn for sure, to name 3)

Add to all this the infuriating things the repubs are doing that couldn't be more inflammatory to BOTH sides than if we had engineered them ourselves: The purple heart bandaids. The sickening 9/11 sensationalizing and capitalizing. The religeous subliminal messages. Through all this, the GOP claims that WE are the party that is out of touch with America!

If that is true, then this is not an America I want to live in. If the unthinkable shouold happen (i.e. they already captured Bin Laden and are waiting to parade him out 2 weeks before the election to garner terror votes) and Bush wins in 2004, I'll see you all in Canada!