It still looks good...

[Wetzelbill]

As far as I can tell from looking at several polls, and various analyses, the USA Today/Gallup and Gallup Tracking polls are a little out of place. Averaged out, McCain has a few point lead in those, which give him a few point lead nationally.

But the electoral college results look good for Obama. He's still up. And he looks to hold all of Kerry's states from 4 years ago, plus pick up Iowa and probably New Mexico. Several others like Virginia, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and Colorado will be dogfights. Obama also will contend in MT and the Dakotas and any pickups there would be fantastic.

McCain, as I said, has a slight edge. But voter registration, turnout and the negative view about the GOP and the direction this country is heading all work against him. (80 percent believe we are going in the wrong direction)

Plus, this looks about the best that it's going to get for McCain, he may still get a point or two this week in the polls, but that type of bump tends to erode over time. Palin's star will not have the same luster as it has in the last week and a half, and McCain is not a good debater.

This will still probably be a close election, but right now, if this is as best as it gets for McCain that's not a really good sign for him.

I still say, this is Obama's election to win or lose. Strategically, I believe he needs to get the focus off of Palin, and on McCain and the Bush disaster of the last 8 years.

That being said, I see nothing in the polling to panic over. McCain has a slight edge nationally, Obama has a little more of an edge in the electoral college. Still a close race all around.

on edit:

This is all if polls are to be believed. I am skeptical, I don't totally trust them because of various factors. In the end, they are simply a snapshot. Turnout, voter registration, and ground organization is key. Now is not the time to get disheartened or complacent.

[liberalmuse]

1. Kennedy/Nixon.

That was even closer. The next two months are going to be excruciating torture, but it ain't over until it's over.

[StrongBad]

2. I pretty much agree

Nice to hear a sober voice.

:thumbsup:

[SharonRB]

3. I agree

I looked at the electoral map this afternoon, and if he keeps all of Kerry's states and just picks up a few (or even just Ohio) others we'll be fine.

[book_worm]

4. It is good. Yes, McCain got a bounce out of his convention, but a bounce which will

quickly fade. The state polls (with the exception of Ohio) were pretty good. Close, yes, but I would never have thought that Florida was neck and neck. Obama is in good shape overall. The issues still, overall, favor him. I truly believe in the last couple of weeks the flood gates will open and Obama will take this thing. I think it's going to be very much like 1980. Carter kept it close until the last week and then Reagan pulled away and ended up winning by 10-points.

[Wetzelbill]

12. That would be nice

I'm not so sure it'll be ten points, but I think Obama can get him by around 5 or so, which, historically, is a substantial electoral college victory.

[The_Casual_Observer]

5. It was bound to be close no matter who was running. Too many lunatics

out there who would vote for another bush!

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Oh God, We've Lost

I still can't believe it.

So sad.

:sarcasm:

[nam78_two]

7. McDumbass just has a little convention bounce

It seems to be such a big deal (in the media and elsewhere) only because he has been doing so spectacularly badly up until now.

I am not worried at all :shrug:-this was expected. The "sheen" (such as it is) is going to fade of this Palin ding-dong very soon and come November most somewhat rational people (and they still make up the majority of this country I would hope) are going to be worried about the economy, gas prices etc. and realise that McSame and Failin are not gonna cut it.

[Wetzelbill]

9. yeah that's all right

I agree.

[DCBob]

8. Wow. An intelligent coherent analysis of the situation.

I hope all DU'ers read this post. Thanks.

[Wetzelbill]

11. you're welcome

I love this stuff, lol. Historically, especially judging from what happened 4 years ago, the bounces that Obama and McCain had, will even out. It just so happens McCain because of proximity, McCain's convention nullified Obama's bounce, and counting McCain's bounce in he's a touch ahead in national polls. That should even out.

[Danger Mouse]

10. We can and WILL win.