CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL, September 5th, Bush: 52 Kerry: 45

[berni_mccoy]

The year was 2004.

Same poll, one month later: CNN/USA Today/Gallup Bush: 48 Kerry: 50

Did either poll predict the outcome?

No.

When will it be time to panic? Read this: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/503

[movonne]

1. Maybe stealing has something to do with it...

[geek tragedy]

2. Um, is that supposed to make us feel better?

The September 5 poll predicted the outcome perfectly.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Bush won by 8 points?

[regnaD kciN]

5. No, it didn't...

Bush won the popular vote by 2.6%, not 8%.

[Spider Jerusalem]

6. Good god, that's a STAGGERINGLY STUPID thing to say.

The obvious point is that current polls are no predictor of the attitude of the electorate within a month, or two months. you'd obviously rather be gloomily negative than employ reason and logic, but you could at least make the effort.

[demwing]

8. No, it was supposed to make everyone else feel better

but not you. You were specifically and purposefully looped out.

[DarthDem]

9. You Are Not Us

You are a troll. You're not fooling anyone.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. You start to panic the week before the election if Obama is down in every poll.

Not the week after the Republican Convention. :eyes:

[Hippo_Tron]

7. Bush was also an incumbent President

And the dynamics of a race are very different when there is an incumbent. As much as we wish John McCain was the incumbent, he isn't.

[Azathoth]

10. Kerry got back in the race after the first debate. That won't happen with Obama

Obama excels at many things, but debating isn't one of them. Every time he participated in a debate in the primaries, his fucking numbers dropped (or at best remained static). I pray to God the Obama campaign isn't depending on the debates to turn this thing around.

[Democat]

11. Bush won!

The poll predicted that pretty well.

[Name removed]

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