Can someone explain to me why Florida's out of play?

[Frank Booth]

If we win Florida, we win the election. I know everyone's kind of traumatized by Florida after what happened in 2000, and in 2004 it wasn't really very close.

But this year it seems to me that Florida should be a prime target for Obama. The RCP average right now for Florida is only McCain +3.1, and Obama led by 1 in the most recent poll (albeit, it's Mason-Dixon).

Compare the number of newly registered Florida voters for the first six months of this year: Republican 77,196 to Democrat 209,422. That's a huge difference.

And though Florida's African-American population isn't as large as some other states in the South, it's still over 15%. There have also been signs that Cubans are no longer so enamored with the Repubs, and non-Cuban Latinos should go heavily for Obama.

People say Obama has problems with older Jewish voters, and that this will hurt him in Florida. But I have a feeling McCain's selection of Palin will bring many of these voters back to the Democratic party. It's purely anecdotal, but older Jewish people that I've talked to about Palin think she's downright scary, and would never vote for a ticket with her on it. Hillary could go a long way in helping Obama pick up these votes.

Seems to me that if we get out the vote, we can win Florida. Am I wrong?

[1corona4u]

1. Trust me, Florida is in play.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Get 5 miles in from the coast and Florida ia Alabama.

[DrDan]

11. what do you mean by that?

[carpetbagger]

19. Florida's got some Dixie-oid areas.

Most of North Florida is quite southern, most of it "deep red" except for the college towns of Tallahassee and Gainesville, and a few counties with heavy black populations. This extends down to about Ocala, where the I-4 corridor and the retiree ghettos take over, but even south of that line there's some rather fundie-southern places.

The retirees are pretty republican-leaning these days, so Texiera's demographic revolution will have to wait a few extra cycles down here.

[tsuki]

22. Sorry, most of NW FL is retired military who loves them some McCain, noun-verb-POW.

Bud Day-rah, rah, rah. As far as the few locals that have not been run out, they tend Democratic.

[quaker bill]

35. You have a point but miss

the big picture. There are certainly red areas in FL, as there are in most states. I have lived in a few of them. However, Bill Clinton and Al Gore (arguably) took FL. Further, they did it during the time when 100,000+ ballots were routinely "spoiled" by the "votomatic" punch card system in Broward and Palm Beach County.

This will be the first statewide election with a uniform vote collection process, optical scanned paper ballots, which by the way, has an easily verifiable paper trail.

Yes, there are alot of red, and fairly empty counties, and there are quite a few blue and heavily populated counties. We can take this, and if we don't, it will not be for my lack of work to make it happen. This change in technology alone will put us up 100,000 votes over 2000. Toss in our registration advantage and we should be able to coast to victory, early in the evening.

[KathieG]

12. Yep...I found that out the hard way

[williesgirl]

3. Seems to me we ought to try like hell. rec'd

[madfloridian]

4. Who said it was out of play?

It will take some doing, but Obama has had Lincoln Chafee, Joe Biden here this week, and Hillary next week.

However since the Florida party has done such a good job smearing Howard Dean...he stays away from here.

I think to win Obama will have to work around many in the Florida Democratic party. They are still pining for Clinton.

[writes3000]

6. Wasserman-Schultz seems like she's become a strong advocate for Obama now.

I've been impressed with her appearances. Is she getting much play on local media?

[madfloridian]

31. She is a strong advocate for Obama. HOWEVER...

Many are undermining him here in subtle and not so subtle ways. Like this fellow. Not so subtle. If you accuse the party chairman of being unfair during the primaries still....then you are not supporting the nominee at all.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/2594

However....I don't see her on TV locally, as she is not in my area.

There is however much much tension among Democrats here...I have some words today via email with someone who said Hillary would be doing better against McCain and Palin.

Since Obama is leading them in most polls, I really got irritated.

It still goes on here.

I think Florida is winnable....but Obama will have to do it via his ground game and NOT count on the Florida Party.

[GoesTo11]

55. How is Obama's ground game there?

[Frank Booth]

7. I hardly even see it listed as a "battleground state" anymore.

For instance this New York Times article, Rival Tickets Are Redrawing Battlegrounds, doesn't even mention Florida, but instead just Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa and Virginia.

I live on the other side of the country from Florida, so I have no first-hand knowledge, but it seems to me that we should be well-positioned to win it this year.

I know Wexler's done more campaigning for Obama than just about anyone. That in itself should get him some votes.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. IMHO, the state Democratic Party machinery is completely disfunctional

and needs alot of work. I think in another 4 years, with purging of current top leadership, and a build-up at the county level, Florida may be winnable again. According to madfloridian, there is still some sort of lawsuit that keeps getting re-filed against the national party (including as late as last week) from someone in the state party, so there are still major problems going on down there.

EDIT - I see madfloridan responded while I was composing! :thumbsup:

[woolldog]

8. It's in play.

I didn't think it would be, but with the selection of Palin, and Obama's selection of Biden, I think Obama has a shot for the reason you mention. Elderly voters care about experience. And Palin makes Obama look like an elder statesman.

[sfwriter]

9. Go here: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Click on Florida

Look at this graph:



Tell me Florida ain't in play.

[truedelphi]

20. The graph almost looks like it is a picture of two people arm-wrestling!!

And at the end there, it's a tie!

Thank you for posting this.

[KittyWampus]

21. that is bugged out.

[Happyhippychick]

10. Oh it is definitely in play! Hillary is going there Monday, Biden was there this week. The older

folks and the Jewish voters (speaking as a Member of the Tribe myself :) ) HATE Palin and love Joe Biden.

[Arugula Latte]

44. I hope they hear about her Jew-hating church.

Spread the word!

[Happyhippychick]

49. Yup Yup! I already did.

[BlooInBloo]

13. Because it's Florida, and Obama's blackityblackityblackblack.

[Frank Booth]

16. But Virgina, NC, and maybe even Georgia are winnable?

I don't get it.

[BlooInBloo]

17. No. Only VA.

[Dr. Death]

26. Not true. We're going to win NC

bank on it.

[chapel hill dem]

54. When will the Obama team restart advertising in NC? n/t

[ellenfl]

27. having lived in south florida most of my life,

and spent several years in gainesville, i cannot say i have been exposed to that much racism in florida. maybe in north florida . . .

don't believe everything you hear in the msm . . . they tend to spin the truth.

florida has always had more registered dems so now the numbers are even greater. we still need to reverse the gerrymandering of florida and get rid of the republic-owned voting machines. maybe then we can get rid of our republic-controlled legislature.

ellen fl

[tpi10d]

14. its in play

The Biden selection helped, Hillary's going to be there, Palin's fundie views..

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

15. Florida is in play. As far as I'm concerned, so is Arizona. ;)

[TheDonkey]

18. Biden was just there but FL will be hard just b/c the much older population

and that is not a demographic that trends democrat and especially Obama.

[1corona4u]

28. Yes, but the older folks love Biden...

and if you looked at what someone posted on the board today, Obama is getting a big chunk of older voters right now. In this election, I wouldn't try to "stereotype" anyone...this is a unique situation. Obama has to win. Has to, and we all know it. So do the elders.

[madfloridian]

37. Maybe you should view the videos of Biden's great reception here.

They loved him...even in Century Village. They loved him even more in Katherine Harris's city of Sarasota.

He was great.

[Duke Newcombe]

23. Hold 3/4ths of the battleground states, and flip FL and AZ...

and it's over. Last I heard, Arizona was only in single digits for McCain. Is this still holding?

duke

[Cha]

24. We'll see..It would be fantastic to win Florida

after all these years! And, your information is sounding good anectdotal and all.

I would think Jewish voters wouldn't want some hatin' fake theocracy ready to take over the reins from mccain.

[Top Cat]

25. Hillary is heading to Florida Monday on behalf of the campaign

[Obamarulz11]

29. Florida isn't out of play

The aftermath of the 2000 election sucked the wind out of the entire state. therefore in 2004 there was record low turnouts in numerous counties including here in Orange County. There's lots of litigation going on about the elections as well as the Civil Liberties Unions getting involved with registrations. We are doing whatever it takes to motivate the public to vote. Gas Prices, the Housing markets and Tourism is killing us. Not to mention Jeb Jackoff Bush, which he pissed off the Latino Community. Here in Orlando, the feel is that NO MORE BUSH antics. We had a double dose Gay W and Jackoff. Florida is still fair game. From Tallahassee to Miami is fair game. NW florida is die hard republican

[TheKentuckian]

30. It's in play. Somewhat uphill but winnable.

Republicans are on the run. They are throwing the kitchen sink and we keep getting tougher to beat.

We have to keep coming at them hard from every direction. McCain is lost without Florida.

[Enrique]

32. who said FL was out of play?

FL is huge in this election. 25 electoral votes huge.

[riskpeace]

33. Because the Democratic party disenfranchised its own voters

Pretty much the same reason Michigan is not in play. But then when everything is said and done, we'll hear about how it's Hillary's fault or the "Bradley effect." But the fact is when the party disenfranchises its own base, sad things happen.
And it doesn't really matter how much Senator Obama modulates his voice, people don't like being screwed over by their own party.
Just my two cents.

[madfloridian]

34. Bull hockey....that is PUMA talk. Here is my two cents... and more.

Updated list of my journal postings about the Florida primary fiasco.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1906

Florida Democrats invade Georgia
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1905

Dean told not to plan a vacation in Florida.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1902

Court decision on March 17 could determine who Democratic nominee is.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1897

Florida Democrats thought they would only lose "half" the delegates.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1903

Dean says FL and MI would not negotiate with the DNC...took it public
instead.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1888

Florida, Michigan and the Jackasses That Over-reached
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1890

Tampa op ed: "Arrogance Cost Florida Chance To Influence Election"
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1875

Terry McAuliffe wants to change horses in the middle of the stream.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1882

From instigator to victim. It was a Dem who introduced the early primary
bill in Florida.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1829

How it began last August....how Florida Democrats began their propaganda war
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1819

Jeremy Ring (D-FL) said "relevance is more important than "partying" in
Denver.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1836

The worst part is that this very day FL Dems still shift blame....
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1870

Is Hillary's campaign being run as a "shadow DNC" for her benefit?
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1883

More Florida shenanigans and more insults to Dean from that state.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1858

Think I exaggerate about Florida's attitude? Here's a county chairperson's
rant against Dean.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1827

Enough of this. Florida Democrats now threaten Dean and the DNC with a
"voting rights probe".
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1453

The "appropriate legal official" to "investigate" Dean and the
DNC...is...Gonzales.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1452

Nelson: "I will lead the delegates to Denver whether or not the DNC plans to
let them in."
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1455

Two summaries of the DNC committee ruling about Florida.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1456

Florida sowed the seeds of a propaganda war against the DNC.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1458

Proof. Vindication. Both Florida parties did it for "relevance." From March.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1459

The latest Florida propaganda tactic here about attacking the DNC...local
email.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1460

Florida's Geller joked about his amendment: "sarcasm and audible laughter in
chamber"
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1461

One Florida county is saying there will be further bloodshed. Much argument
here today.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1462

Florida Democratic Party website building anger toward the DNC
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1465

Democratic activist sues over loss of Florida delegates
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1466

"Dean was conciliatory and offered DNC help for the state"..hour long phone
call
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1467

Gelber admits they did not fight the GOP about the primary.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1468

"Primary bully Florida ought to be ashamed"...four articles catch on to
Florida's primary ploy.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1469

Bill Nelson today will file a bill for regional primaries...but first he had
to get your attention
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1478

Bill Nelson today: "DNC penalties unacceptable, unacceptable, unacceptable"
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1479

Carl Levin and Terry McAuliffe made a deal about primaries in 2004.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1483

Email from Florida DEC chairs saying not to give to the DNC or candidates.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1481

Pelosi says it is not Florida's fault at all. So if the speaker says it I
must be wrong.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1567

"Florida Democrats are all for it"...March 2006. All for the early primary
that far ahead.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1564

Details on how Florida worked with the GOP to set the early primary date.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1617

Nobody sued Terry McAuliffe when he said Michigan's delegates would not get
near Boston.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1638

Nelson and Levin of Michigan file the bill today. It's getting deeper
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1741

My postings about the heartbreak of the Florida primary fiasco.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1607

Florida Dems at convention have button that says "Screw Dean"...very classy.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1608

Senate leader ponders suing 'rogue states' over primary
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1527

[Carolina]

53. great post

[riskpeace]

56. Thanks for the links.

It's not any kind of talk. It's my opinion in response to a question. I think that is exactly why Florida is not in play.

[madfloridian]

59. So you are saying Hillary should have won?

Could you clarify?

You approve of breaking rules to win?

[madfloridian]

36. In fact I am surprised you have the nerve to post that stuff here.

I really am.

You just declared our nominee as not being official. I despise that crap.

We have had enough of that.

Only whiny babies keep whining when they lose because rules were followed.

:banghead:

[joshcryer]

42. I fail to see how the poster declared that the nominee is not official.

I expect you to explain yourself.

[madfloridian]

47. You always order me around. I don't have to explain, but I will.

Read what the poster wrote....if the primaries were not fair as the poster declares than he/she is saying much more than that....that our nominee is not official.

Their quote:

Because the Democratic party disenfranchised its own voters

Pretty much the same reason Michigan is not in play. But then when everything is said and done, we'll hear about how it's Hillary's fault or the "Bradley effect." But the fact is when the party disenfranchises its own base, sad things happen.

And it doesn't really matter how much Senator Obama modulates his voice, people don't like being screwed over by their own party.
Just my two cents.

No one was screwed..

[quaker bill]

39. The people weren't disenfranchised

I voted just fine, no problems at all. It is unfortunate that our party did not hold a contest that would have qualified for delegates under the rules. However, this can be sorted out when we elect a new slate of party leaders.

[Carolina]

52. the fucking FLORIDA Dem party

went along with the repukes in the legislature WITHOUT PROTEST and broke the rules NOT the DNC, NOT Dean and most definitely NOT Obama.

Madfloridian, we need you to chime in AGAIN as some just don't get it! :hi:

[JVS]

38. The state democratic party is a bunch of idiotic assholes who won't be able to get anything done.

[madfloridian]

41. We are working with the Obama campaign....not with local Democrats

We are not welcomed by them anymore because we took Dean's side in the primary.

Obama can win if he ignores the party structure here, which he appears to be doing at a local level.

[quaker bill]

43. It is good that Obama

has his own staff. I worked for Gore and Kerry here in FL. Obama has paid more staff here than Gore had volunteers. The volunteer corps is already larger than both campaigns combined.

We can and will win this.

[madfloridian]

48. I believe Florida Dems get around 300,000 a year from the DNC...but

they don't even want the chairman coming here.

Obama needs to bypass the party leaders in most cases here, but he can win.

[Samantha]

40. Why would all those seniors vote for privatizing Social Security?

I just don't get it. Perhaps they are unaware of McCain's position on this issue.

Sam

[quaker bill]

45. They won't. n/t

[Barack_America]

46. Palin's church says that God punishes Israel with terrorism because of Jews non-belief in Christ.

I wonder what Florida Jews would think about that.

[jumptheshadow]

50. I have always thought it was a major mistake to write off Florida

Ways to win Florida:

1) Showcase older spokespeople. Recruit them for your campaign. Start acting like you care about their issues (the token speech to the AARP notwithstanding).

2) Ask your supporters to stop making the "old" jokes about McCain. You lose votes for the five seconds worth of laughter and the cheap point you make.

The conventional wisdom has been that younger people will put Obama over the top.

This is untrue. Older voters will decide this presidential election. You have a chance to win them over if you start to respect them.

3) Do major outreach with Jewish voters in Florida.

4) Do major outreach with military families in Florida.

We know some of them. While they may have voted Republican in other elections, believe me, the endless deployments and the burdens they have so disproportionately assumed have opened their minds to the "other" option.

[Carolina]

51. Sorry Floridians

but Florida fucks it up every time including the primary. Better to spend time, energy and money elsewhere!

Edit: that's why my granfather and his kin got the fuck outta there in 1916 and NEVER, ever went back.

[bleuvixen]

57. AS I stated in another thready

I have seen (now 4) Obama Ads here in FL and zero McCain ads on ABC (during stephanopolidiots show)

[Jawja]

58. Florida is out of play

because judging by the last 2 elections, cannot be trusted to deliver a fair election.