Gallup 9/6/08 - Obama's Lead Down to 2 Points

[democrattotheend]

Grrr...47-45 now, and Gallup said McCain had a particularly strong night last night, so they will probably be tied again tomorrow. http://www.gallup.com/poll/110047/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Shrinks-Points.aspx



On edit: I'm just reporting the poll numbers. Please don't shoot the messenger. Someone threatened me with "pizza" for reporting a Gallup poll...do we have a ban on reporting bad news now?

[tekisui]

1. No worries. This is Palin's bump.

This polling is after her speech, and 2 of 3 days after mcpows. I don't think the bump will go much higher. Palin did all she could do, secure the fundies, and mcpow has a ceiling. I don't think they will get much higher, maybe a point or two, but it won't last long. Obama is back on the offensive after letting them have their show last week.

[mac56]

2. People, take a deep breath. The daily polls are meaningless right now.

They tell the MSM what they want to hear - that this race is close.

If it helps you focus your attention and not get complacent, then go ahead and follow the daily polls.

But take them with copious grains of salt, and for god's sake don't drive off a bridge because of what they say.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. McCain will most likely take the lead tomorrow.

A lot will depend on how well he does tonight, but Obama had a strong night Thursday, where estimates had him +6. That will dropoff after today and unless he answers with polling +6 today, he'll fall behind by 2 or 3 points.

[terrya]

18. Yes. But it can be good for us.

Increased donations to Obama/Biden. Gets people even more energized.

I'm confident of us in November.

[Robbins]

4. Obama

Remember despite all the press love for Palin Obama still leads.Few were actully Impressed by
Mccain with his speech.If he can keep a 1 or 2 point leads things are In good shape.

[JaneQPublic]

7. True. Plus, it appears McCain cannot surpass 45 percent

Things will never get better for him and the half-baked Alaskan than they are right now. Yet 45 seems to be his ceiling.

Add to that the fact that it's the state-by-state poll situation that's really important, and according to Real Clear politics, Obama still enjoys a healthy lead in that respect:
http://realclearpolitics.com/

[PATRICK]

13. Hitting the Hillary peak

You can get so far against Obama with various kinds of substitutes for real policy, real aggressive excitement or gimmicks- and no further. Still, plan on the GOP going Hillary one better on the outrageous, ruthless scale and cheat and lie and steal.

The real underlying crucial realities of the world and the underlying deep and broad desires of the people would quickly make this an honest 70-30 race for Obama. The GOP will never politely let that happen. It is not decrying the various weaknesses of the electorate but the process they are betrayed by and still generally and almost always overcome- were it not for outright ballot stuffing.

[inthebrain]

5. The Reps managed a two point convention bump?

That's it?

That's too funny. McCain/Palin are going down in flames and this is just the beginning. Wait for the debates.

A two point post convention bump is fucking pathetic!!!!! What it says is that they maybe managed to plat some doubt but they also failed to grab voters that they need.!!!! They didn't appeal anyone on the fence at all. Just the base!!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

8. No, they've managed a 7-point bump thus far.

Obama's highest was a 9-point lead when the Democratic Convention ended last week.

McCain is now down 2, so that is a swing of 7.

[sandnsea]

17. You have to use the same poll

You can't use a 9 pt lead in one poll which may still have a 9 pt lead, and compare it to any other poll. You even should look within polls to compare registered vs likely voters, etc. I haven't looked closely at any of it because I only care about state polls, but if you're going to make comparisons, get it right.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. I am...I'm using the Gallup poll.

Maybe I was mistaken and the Gallup poll only had him up 8, but the point still remains, McCain has seen a larger bump in the Gallup poll than 2 points.

[azmouse]

6. www.electoral-vote.com

Obama's doing just fine where it counts.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[graywarrior]

10. The only polls that matter are the ones the campaigns run and then not until October.

[demosincebirth]

11. Rasmussen has Obama up by 3. Was up 1 thursday.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Actually, he was up +1 without leaners both today and yesterday.

Though he was up only +2 with leaners yesterday and is now up +3, so he did gain there.

[Zynx]

20. Being tied with your opponent after their convention is a strong place to be.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. I agree.

Though we should be cautious and make sure McCain's bump doesn't go into next week.

If by next Saturday McCain does not have a lead, he's done.

[Egnever]

14. i got no problem with winning by 2

[Awsi Dooger]

21. That's the best comment

+2 nationally will almost certainly translate to 270+ electoral votes.

It still busts me up when I see posts, like in this thread, insisting they only care about state polls. Let's say the national polls on election eve are dead even on average, yet state polls insist Obama leads Colorado by 4 and Ohio by 3 and Virginia by 2. Are we really going to be dense enough to believe that, any of them? It's absolutely scary.

Obama needs to maintain the national poll lead and he's fine.

[Top Cat]

15. Who believes these polls anyway?

[demosincebirth]

19. Gotta pass the time some how.

[VolcanoJen]

16. Sounds good to me.

If McCain/ClownShoes were going to get a bump, it would've started to show up by now. We'll know by Monday, but I'm a little underwhelmed.

It's been EIGHT DAYS since Palin burst onto the world scene, and it's looking to me like Americans are basically unimpressed.

[Orlandodem]

24. We can't fool ourselves into believing that this election will be an easy Obama win.

No Dem has coasted to victory since 1932. This year will be no different. Keep working hard and smart to getObama elected!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. 36, 40, 44, 64, 76*, & 96 Were Fairly Easy

The election of 76 got perilously close at the end...

[Fluffdaddy]

29. Orlandodem you gets it. This will be year 2000 close

[Peacetrain]

26. convention bump

I would have thought McCain would have taken the lead (for a day or two) just because of all the press of Palin. Geez, can't even break 50% for a day, sad and sadder for them. They had good viewer ship (the repubs) because of all the controversy.

The republican party has a real third party look and feel to it right now.

[saracat]

27. Your button with the girls is just precious! They are sooo cute!

[democrattotheend]

31. Thanks! I have that button and others for sale on Zazzle

http://www.zazzle.com/malia_sasha_obama_for_first_daughters_button-145940862303632884?gl=democrattotheend&rf=238653457971405551 is the button you mentioned

And you can see all of my stuff at http://www.zazzle.com/democrattotheend

I'm giving part of the proceeds to the campaign, FYI. Except the stuff for Clinton supporters - as promised, part of that is going to Hillary's debt relief.

[Thrill]

28. Even when Obama was 8 in this tracking Poll. David Ploffe said the poll was useless

[progressiveforever]

30. I like to see the polls no matter where from---thanks