The elephant in the room: Will people vote for a black man when they're in the privacy of the booth?

[smoochpooch]

Obviously, we know people will vote for Obama or he never would have gotten our party's nomination. But it is often alleged that many people tell pollsters they will vote for a black man to avoid being called racist, but in reality they would never actually vote for a black man (or woman). Because this is the first time a minority has earned a presidential nomination, it really is uncharted territory. Is this a real phenomenon or media created? Does it occur in every state or just some? What does this mean for the polls we are seeing? Please be realistic in your replies.

[rwheeler31]

1. Given this choice yes.

[NYC_SKP]

2. Some won't, many will, and we need to really GOTV and the message.

When they learn how much McCain will cost them in taxes and lost jobs, and the impact on their kids and grandkids, we'll have a powerful majority.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[skooooo]

3. That's a tough question, but...

...I think the so-called minority and youth (if it happens) turn out will put Obama over the top.

[FLyellowdog]

4. Opposite view

This of course could be the case, but on the flip side...I wonder if there also won't be a number of more centered conservatives who will vote a "secret ballot" for Obama and never tell. I can't believe that all conservatives are so right-winged and ignorant. SOME of them have to have good sense.

[smoochpooch]

7. I like your thinking. n/t

[Booster]

10. I think that's going to be the case. On the flip side, there will be a

number of men AND women who will not vote for a woman no matter what, so.....

[tomnjoy]

18. You're right....

My racist stepfather is one of them. There's no way he will vote for Obama. (Don't even get me started on the family arguments we've had regarding his horrible attitude!) BUT, he has a real dilemma now because he also believes women do not belong in power ... so he says he will not vote for Palin. He's not voting.

[FirstLight]

16. THAT is exactly what I was thinking!

I think it could very well work in our favor, because there are more who would secretly vote AGAINST Mccain, than openly for Obama...
just look around, for all the flag waving at the RNC, how many people are putting McCain stickers on their cars etc?

at least I would like to think that way!

[cameozalaznick]

17. I already know many moderate Republicans

that are planning to vote for Obama. Especially in light of the Palin pick.

[Booster]

30. And I would hope these people are voting for what is best for

their country. This country is in real trouble and even Republicans can see that. They must know that McCain has no idea how to get us out of the mess that their own party has created. I hope they vote for Obama then come out of the voting booth a brag about how they voted their party line. Who cares what they say after they do the right thing.

[KittyWampus]

20. we should make up a term for those voters.

[CakeGrrl]

24. I've had the same thought. I could see more stealth voting FOR Obama than not

From Republicans who realize what a shitty job Bush/Cheney has done for 8 years but can't admit it to their fellow Repubs.

[bunkerbuster1]

35. I think it might even out. Some white folks secretly believe in affirmative action.

They won't come out and say it but they know -- we all know -- that black folks have been screwed by this nation and when given the chance, will cast a vote to absolve themselves of sin.

Pet theory of mine, no way to know if it's really a factor, I just suspect it is.

[MrModerate]

5. I don't think there's any way to tell . . .

Polling for sincerity just doesn't work. I think for those who support Obama's policies natively (the base) it's not an issue. For undecideds who conclude that they don't really want McCain-Palin, it might be a significant factor. By "significant" I mean thousands of votes, that tip otherwise Obama wins to losses.

My feeling (unquantified) is that it's not much of an issue for those who think they'll vote for Obama.

[kwenu]

6. Racism exists. No doubt about it but we have to make sure we work to get the support we need.

[chascarrillo]

8. Thank you for your concern.

[BeyondGeography]

9. Did you miss the primaries?

[faithfulcitizen]

11. will repubs really trust an old geezer w/health problems & temper with "the button"?

And his young hot VP from Mooseport? I doubt it.

[CreekDog]

12. Thank you for the latest installment of this question, posted at least weekly now

[samuraiguppy]

13. not concerned at all

plenty of peeps voted for him in the primaries.

[ClarkUSA]

14. Thanks for your deep concern.

[blogslut]

15. It is a media created phenomenon

And a tired old chestnut at that.

[DeschutesRiver]

19. Iowa did - a state full of white people

New poll that just came out said Obama still has something like 95% of the Iowa vote.

So not like it can't happen that way.

[blondeatlast]

21. If Montana stands a good chance of going blue (and it does), yes, indeed, they will. Chill. nt

[shraby]

22. Why would they fudge their answer?

If asked if they preferred Obama or McCain, all they'd have to say is McCain. They aren't being asked if they are voting for the white guy or the black guy. This is a straw argument.

[smoochpooch]

25. good point, thanks! n/t

[FrenchieCat]

23. I think you are full of shit,

since no one can answer this question.

Racists appear to be pretty much out in the open these days,
so the polls, if they were to be reliable, are already reflecting
the racists. They are the ones voting for McCain. Doh.

[RichardRay]

26. Probably a thing of the past...

It's called the Bradley-Wilder Effect. It probably existed at one time, it probably doesn't anymore.

See:

Post about the Bradley-Wilder Effect

[liberalmuse]

27. Just a thought...

Are there people who would never admit they would vote for a black man but who would do so in the privacy of a voting booth and never tell anyone (a 'pub, for instance)?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

28. This is simple: we offset the Bigot Vote by getting out the young voters, blacks and Hispanics,

progressives, etc. TURNOUT will be key. Low turnout = McSame and his lipstick-laced Pit bull. In other words, either we vote or we're eternally screwed.

[Whalestoe]

29. Isn't what your referring to as the Bradley Effect?

Which in any case, from wiki: On average, Obama received three percentage points more support in the actual primaries and caucuses than he did during polling; however, he also had a strong ground campaign, and many polls do not question voters with cellphones, who are predominantly young.

I don't think it's going to be the biggest deal. Who will fix our economy and our job loss is what will be. Obama did beat a white women for the nomination... so... I think he can beat a grumpy old white man.

[LibDemAlways]

31. Up until recently I thought it would be a problem, but since

McCain stuck Palin, who embodies all the attributes of an extreme rightwing nutcase, on the ticket, I think even many racists are rethinking this.

So, no, I don't think it will be a significant issue.

[justiceischeap]

32. Hard to say what's really in someone's heart but

I haven't seen people this excited since Bill Clinton's first win. I think we are facing a great hardship in our nation with the economy as it is, health care, hell we all *know* the issues. I think it's gonna come down to who's best for this nation and I think people will be able to over come fear and prejudice and vote Obama/Biden. I'll admit, in the beginning I was really quite *concerned* about our ticket. I didn't think the nation was ready for a candidate who happened to be black or a woman but the more I see how Obama's reaching people, the less I'm worried.

Granted you're going to have those people that would never vote for him on the basis of his skin color but I also think you're going to have people vote for his half white side. My folks are pretty dern prejudiced and they think he's better for the nation. Another thing to keep in mind is that Wall Street folks feel Obama will be better for the economy, so you're going to have Repugs voting for him on that basis alone. As much as the McShame camp would like to turn this into a high school election which is all about personality, I just don't think they can get away with that this time around; too many people have been affected. Then again, all my optimism could be for naught and I consider a move to Canada in 60 days.

[truthisfreedom]

33. Will you?

[elkston]

34. We won't know until Nov. 4th. That's why this is one of the most suspenseful

elections ever.

So many factors at play in a scenario that has no precedent:

-First Black Candidate
-First Woman Cnadidate
-Big *Potential* young voter turnout
-Massive *Potential* black voter turnout
-Big Racist turnout
-???? Number of "Bradley Effect" voters
-???? Number of "stealth" votes for Obama (by Republicans)
-???? Hillary Voters who go to McCain
-???? Hillary voters who sit it out
-???? Number of guys who vote for McCain because Palin is "hot"
- 3rd Party madness: Bob Barr, Protest votes for Ron Paul, and Ralph Nader

I literaly cannot wait to cast my vote and then sit back on Nov 4. and see the results come in. Whoever wins, the figures will be studied for years to come.

Of course, if Obama does not win, I will be crushed. It will also set back race relations in this country big time.

[Matariki]

36. I'm fairly certain that the Gallop & Rasmussen polls, that Obama leads in

asks about his race. And I'm sure people don't feel they need to answer yes to whether or not they'd vote for Obama (vs 'a black man') if they really mean no.

I think you are worrying about the wrong thing. Caging votes in Ohio and elsewhere is a more fruitful concern.

[quantass]

37. Iowa proved that it is a New World. Obama represents everyone

[DCBob]

38. I don't think the so-called "Bradly Effect" applies to Obama.

There was no evidence of that in the primaries. In fact it was often the opposite. I think most white voters, especially the young, urban and educated, don't see Obama as black or AA or anything -- he is just Barack Obama.

[TexasObserver]

39. Yes. For every person who secretly WON'T vote for a black man ...

... there's another who secretly WILL, but won't let anyone among their family and friends know about it. See, the counter to the Bradley Effect is the Mandingo Effect. It's all those voters who simply can't wait to secretly vote for a black man for president, but could never admit that to a pollster.

[Hekate]

40. Yes. But will the voting machine count it? That's the real question this time. nt