ABC/Wash Post Poll: Kerry 48%, Bush 48%. ABC spins for Bush.

[Karmadillo]

One could also focus the story on the fact that after a tough two or three weeks for Kerry, he's still tied with the indumbent with the debates still to come. ABC, of course, doesn't do this. When the numbers favored Kerry, was there a similar article extolling his momentum? I'd be willing to bet there wasn't.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/bush_convention_poll_040829.html

Aug. 30, 2004— The ice in the river is thick, but the currents have moved in President Bush's direction.

As his nominating convention kicks off, an ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Bush has erased most of John Kerry's gains on issues and attributes alike, retaking a sizable lead in trust to handle terrorism, moving ahead on Iraq and battling the Democratic presidential nominee to parity on the economy — the three top issues of the 2004 campaign.

Bush also has reclaimed an advantage in being seen as more honest and trustworthy, bolstered his rating for strong leadership and moved to a 10-point lead as better qualified to serve as commander in chief, erasing Kerry's edge in the latter after his convention late last month.

The race between the two remains essentially unchanged — even among likely voters, at 48 percent to 48 percent. But the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows clear deflation for Kerry across a range of measures: Strong enthusiasm for his candidacy has dropped by 16 points (almost precisely what it gained after Boston), and his personal favorability rating has lost eight points to hit a new low. Bush, meanwhile, has chipped five points off the number of Americans who see him unfavorably.

more...

[David Dunham]

1. F*CK ABC

[Cha]

2. abc/disneymickeymouse can all go

fuck off..cheney style.

[fearnobush]

3. Including leaners - (likely voters) Kerry 49% Bush 48%

Notice how likely voter are only real when the favor Bush?

Gallup has Kerry 48 Bush 47. Tied without leaners

<http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm>

My point, Shrimp boat liars could be back firing. That in it's self could give Bush a not so big bounce.

[papau]

7. Bush lost a 4 point lead, now Kerry loses a 2 point lead - a 1 point swing

ABC/WP poll
The 2004 Election: Among Likely Voters
......25-Jul.... 1-Aug...... 29-Aug
Bush...50....... 47........ 48
Kerry..46.........49..........48
Nader...2..........2...........1

[Thrill]

4. Those Swift Boat Ads

worked great for the Repukes. Meanwhile the Kerry Camp continues to play nice guy

[Doctor_J]

9. yeah

looks like they would rather lose on the high road than win in the gutter.

[Democat]

11. Democrats are stupid when they try to take the high road

The high road gets soldiers killed and leaves children without health insurance, old people without medicine, and the entire country without civil rights.

When we decide to be nice instead of winning we are practically supporting the Republicans.

It's time to fight or step aside for many of our leaders.

Kerry better be ready for a dirty two months after the convention and he had better not plan on playing defense the whole time.

[Karmadillo]

5. More pro-Bush spin from ABC's the Note: Kerry "wobbling", "disension-

wracked." Also suggests a "significant shake-up" is needed. Given Kerry is tied with Bush in almost all national polls, this assessment seems more than a little exaggerated and appears to be a blatant effort to give Bush a boost.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

<edit>

If the already wobbling Kerry campaign can take the pressure of being behind — both in the CW and actually. (Note Note — we are being kind with "wobbling" — we could have gone with "disension-wracked" or something comparable.)

<edit>

Will John Kerry's campaign use its week (mostly) out of the spotlight to make some staff changes? (Note we are too polite to use the words "significant shake-up.")

[richmwill]

6. I'll take a tie at this point

A tie is great at this point, in my opinion. After the Swift Boat Liars scandal (which seems to now be fading, and will be long forgotten by November) and all the non-stop negative press Kerry had these past 2 weeks, a tie is good. None of the debates have occured yet, it's still quite a while until the election. The voters aren't getting fooled this time, which is comforting to know.

[earthside]

8. Work Hard-Kerry Will Win

You have to remember, too, that except for the small buy of Swift boat response ads, the Kerry campaign did not do television advertising during the month of August (to save money for the fall). Four weeks after the Democratic convention there is bound to be a natural fall-off among swing voters.

Furthermore, there is a natural cycling during the campaign, especially in a tight race ... sometimes you're going up, sometimes down. It seems obvious to me that if you are Kerry and you are going to have a stall or downturn, the natural time would be during the GOP convention - it will probably happen anyway.

So I think the Kerry campaign anticipated this lull ... and they do not want to peak too early. In a couple of weeks, the polls will show Kerry back ahead a couple of points and the press will be asking if it is all over for Bush.

But this race will have to be fought to the end. Work Hard! However, in my opinion, the professional pollsters are screening too tightly and weighting improperly. New voters, young voters, Hispanic voters, and African-American voters are not traditional high turnout participants ... but there are all kinds of indications that this year will be different.

I, therefore, predict that the professional public polls will show a near dead-even race all the way to the end ... but Kerry will win with 54 percent of the popular vote and around 300 electoral votes.

[Doctor_J]

10. I am just about done working and sending money

Frankly, if the electorate buys this stuff, they deserve a 2nd bush term and all that comes with it - war, bankruptcy, civil unrest, enemies around the world, environmental destruction, and more attacks on our soil.

Sadly, I think our nation is so sick that no "patch" will work. It will have to be dismantled and rebuilt from near scratch. another term for * will take us to the rebuilding point more quickly, so we can get on with the beginning of the next great republic.

For me, I am getting old and plan to watch from a safe distance.