Mediacurves: Palin speech made a HUGE difference with Independents

[geek tragedy]

Sorry folks, but the Independents LOVE her. We are in TROUBLE.

http://www.mediacurves.com/pdf/Palin_RNC_Speech.pdf

Independents before speech:

Def NOT vote for McCain: 19%
Prob NOT vote for McCain: 20%
Undecided: 33%
Prob vote for McCain: 16%
Def vote for McCain: 12%

Independents after the speech:
Def NOT vote for McCain: 26%
Prob NOT vote for McCain: 14%
Undecided: 22%
Prob vote for McCain: 16%
Def vote for McCain: 21%

Team Obama has got to destroy this woman. They cannot afford to ignore her while she gets a free pass from the compliant press.

McCain is the new frontrunner.

[rufus dog]

1. am I missing something - YES I AM - THE OP HAS AN AGENDA

He had a net gain of 2!

Edited to add CAPS Portion of Title. I will leave it at that

Jesus, we aren't fucking stupid geek.

[stray cat]

5. See def voting for mccain

[rufus dog]

59. I see that

9% improvement with a 7% increase in those Def NOT - Net gain of 2%

[stray cat]

2. Maybe as frontrunner people might start realizing what a repub presidency will be

[ConstitutionJoe]

3. Palin no American

Falling in line with this election's Republican party strategy, Sarah Palin chose her minutes in the spotlight at Wednesday night's RNC to slam her political rivals rather than elaborate on how the GOP plans to address the issues that are upper-mind to most Americans -- the economy, our dependence on the oil sold to us by our sworn enemies, and the war in Iraq. Particularly galling were Palin’s satiric remarks about Barack Obama's community service on the south side of Chicago.
Let me tell you, "Bloody Sarah" -- from someone who has volunteered hours of his time to teach reading and writing to disadvantaged adults, and who really is an average American and not the extreme-Right political machine's fabrication of one -- any citizen who selflessly works hard to improve the well-being of himself and his neighbors through community service is doing far more for the good of his or her country than you are with your hateful, hypocritical, and divisive rhetoric that serves only to distance us all from the truth we so need to hear.
Go back to Alaska -- if they'll have you -- and beg her citizens for forgiveness. Leave the governing of America to real Americans.

[Blue_In_AK]

11. She has completely lost the Democrats and Independents

here who have been basically propping her up over the past two years against the powerful opposition in her own party. Her standing in Alaska will suffer for this.

[ThatPoetGuy]

31. Excellent post.

Welcome to DU!

[Nikki Stone1]

4. This is what I was worried about. My suggestion:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6921553&mesg_id=6921553

[FrenchieCat]

7. It's a net gain of 2 points.......

and they haven't seen all of the skeletons in her closet yet.

I hope the nervous nellies aren't back. :eyes:

[Nikki Stone1]

19. Hi Frenchie, it's just me.

And yeah, I am nervous. Obama has got to win this one. We can't have a whack-a-doodle extremist one melanoma away from the Presidency.

[FrenchieCat]

24. I am asking you to chillax. This ain't no sprint, it's a marathon., and I alerted on poster and

stated:

A net 2 point gain is not HUGE. Please lock thread or ask poster to get some counseling.

Thank you,

FrenchieCat

[Nikki Stone1]

30. Got it.

:hi:

[tekisui]

42. This poster is consistently touting mcpow's strengths.

[FrenchieCat]

54. Must be love......

[geek tragedy]

71. i HATE the Republicans.

Hate them with a deep burning passion.

And I know that their evil is structured to take advantage of our stupidity as a nation.

[geek tragedy]

23. No, McCain went from 28% to 37% def/prob will vote for.

That style of scorched earth politics WORKS.

Obama needs to dump the happy talk and stop believing voters who claim they care about the issues.

[FrenchieCat]

34. It doesn't work that way.......

HUGE was how I describe your overstatement.

But then, I forgot....this is the type of thing you enjoy.

I hope it helps you....I wouldn't want you frustrated and unhappy or anything. :eyes:

[philly_bob]

57. Annoyed by hostility toward posters who worry about losing.

Perhaps it should be a requirement of those who are insulting to "Nervous Nellies" to lay out what their contingency plan is IF they're wrong and the Republicans pull out a "win" in November by one means or another.

Remember, as long as the Republicans are close, they can cheat.

[thoughtcrime1984]

6. Any Indie that would vote McC based on her

is no Indie.

[GrizzlyMan]

8. If you were any more full of shit, you'd be a septic tank

Look, either you've got the stomach for this fight or you don't. You cite one poll...ONE POLL...and proclaim McCain the "new front runner" and that "we're in trouble". There is a insatiable panic addiction by some DUers that is so silly, it makes me laugh.

[Connie_Corleone]

9. When the sun is shining, do you get depressed because it will rain in the future?

Jesus Christ with a hockey stick! Why don't we just quit now?

Better yet. Why don't you just quit now since every post you write is a chicken little, Oh no the sky is falling post?

[Stephist]

10. So After Her Speech...

1% more said they probably or definitely would not vote for McCain and 3% more people said they would vote for him. so her speech won over 2% of independents. Why is this so great? What am I missing?

[FrenchieCat]

22. You are not missing that OP used "HUGE" in caps in title of thread for a reason.....

Kind of like AP, CNN and Fox does......to irritate and depress the hell out of you.

Some folks like to hold us up,
while others want to tear us down.

That's the only math you need.

[Zynx]

12. Ummm...There wasn't all that much movement.

[Perky]

13. My first Chicken Little Alert of the 2008 campaign

Bumps are fleeting she has not even had her first presser yet.

[Occam Bandage]

14. One poll showing a net 2% bump is "HUGE"? Wash out your underpants and get back to work.

[geek tragedy]

26. Where are you getting the 2% number from?

It's a 9% bump amongst independents.

McCain is solidifying and inspiring his base, and winning over Independents with this pick.

And that's AFTER she had all of those scandals break

[wileedog]

33. His definetly NOT number went up 7%

Its a 2% spread. It means nothing.

[writes3000]

35. She turned off 7% of Independents as well. Which means only a 2% bump. Oy. nt

[geek tragedy]

40. Compare the numbers:

Prob/Def will NOT vote for McCain: 39% before speech, 40% after speech

Prob/Def will vote for McCain: 28% before, 37% after

[az chela]

15. Your crystal ball is broke

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

16. "We" who, paleface?

By the way, long time no see. I see you haven't changed a bit.

[tekisui]

44. But, they do have stamina.

I think they know exactly when to shut up.

[AllieB]

46. I was just going to post the same thing.

Same shit, different election.

[EmilyAnne]

17. Then they were holding out for any reason at all to hot have to vote for the black man with the

funny name.

She can read. Bingo. Great reason to vote for her.

Idiots.

[tpi10d]

18. if this is the height of the bounce

we're doing fine.

Wait a week or two and check polling. Pallin may be delivering red meat but after a week the aftertaste could be a cheap hamburger.

[WheelWalker]

32. cheap mooseburger. nt

[RoccoR5955]

20. I disagree...

... As you can see, the difference before and after the speech is the same, as far as those who will definitely vote one way or another it was 7 points to start, and 6 points after. If one takes into account even a two point margin of error, it is the same. The only major difference is that there are 11% fewer undecideds after the speech. Yeah, a few more went her way, but once the debates are over, I am certain that this will change!

[geek tragedy]

36. They broke to McCain by a 4-1 ratio.

That seems to be an effective speech.

More importantly, it shows that HATE WORKS. ANGER WORKS. Voters WANT negative attack politics.

[RoccoR5955]

70. Even a 4:1 ratio in a 2 point bounce is within the margin of error...

...net gain NOTHING, nada, nil, zero, zilch, goose egg, naught, nix, vacuum... Get it?!?!?

[ClarkUSA]

21. WTH is Media Curves? I've never heard of them.

:shrug:

[Lex]

27. sounds like a gym for female pundits

:wtf:

[anigbrowl]

37. Looks like part of the GOP toolbox

Click on 'About Us' and follow it to their parent company...lotsa Fox news logos. Nothing going back before January on a casual inspection.

[GrizzlyMan]

48. Thanks for confirming what I suspected

Now where is that ignore function I hear so much about (not you, the OP)

[ClarkUSA]

55. So the OP is another bitter PUMA, eh?

Jerk.

[GrizzlyMan]

38. Yes, the OP should address that

For all we know, it is a Repuke outfit.

[tekisui]

25. Mcpow the new front runner? Bullshit.

[the Sundance Kid]

28. oh noes!!! it's a tragedy!!

[Danger Mouse]

29. Helpful suggestions can be found here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6917020

[Kukesa]

52. I LOVE that post! It made me feel good the first time I read it. n/t

[optimisticin08]

39. Palin is a piece of poop.

I do think Biden lacked excitement and was a mistake in my opinion. He is a great guy and would be a good president but he doesnt really add anything.A surprise pick would have been the way to go.

[geek tragedy]

41. Should have been Hillary. n/t

[high density]

47. OK you've just exposed the reason for your ridiculous OP.

Sad. Get on board or fuck off.

[Arkana]

51. And the mask slips off.

The PUMA boards are thataway.

[optimisticin08]

56. Jack Reed

He would have been a good choice.I also think Jim Webb is tough and a real fighter.

[optimisticin08]

50. Let me add something else.

Democrats are making a mistake by harping on Palin and how inexperienced she is. Tthe bar is set so low that all she has to do is show and she will win the debate with Biden. We need to attack her on issues like troopergate and womens rights.

[high density]

43. It looks split to me

Plus the way this is reported as a "NOT" vote for McCain is worthless. Is that an Obama vote or no vote at all?

[Arkana]

45. You know, you are a chronic Chicken Little.

I guess Obama should just get brain surgery so he can be an insufferable asshole like McCain! Would that make you happy?

[DCBob]

49. WTF are you talking about? McCain the front runner??

Almost as many say they are definitely not voting for McCain as say they are definitely voting for McCain. It's a wash. This is great news! Stop being so negative. McCain is toast.

[progressivebydesign]

53. This goes against all the other polls. WHy do you POST this shit here?

Honestly? I'm tiring of these breathless "oh we're in trouble!" posts! If you can't say something positive... well.. you know.

[geek tragedy]

58. Because the Obama campaign needs to play to win.

This high road shit doesn't cut it with voters.

[GrizzlyMan]

60. How many presidential campaigns have you run?

[geek tragedy]

62. I've watched plenty, and every high road campaign

since 1976 has LOST.

[GrizzlyMan]

63. Thank you.

[elkston]

69. Why are you convinced that Obama has never gotten tough?

He strikes at just the right time, with the right amount of force.

All last week during the convention people were worried that the democrats didn't swing enough.

Then Obama came out with a hard-hitting speech that still managed to have an overall tone of hope and promise.

I just don't fucking get it. Do you want him stop campgainging and just do press conferences every day where he throws vitriol at Palin? That's what surrogates are for.

Look, I'm sorry Hillary didn't win the Primary for you. If you can't have any more faith in our team then you should just leave DU. I'm really sick of your over-the-top alarming posts.

[geek tragedy]

72. I want them to engage in the politics of personal

destruction.

[DCBob]

64. Indeed. The sky is falling crap is tiresome. Obama is doing great!

He will win if we all can keep optimistic and confident.

[BumRushDaShow]

61. Mediacurves is ONLINE polling

From here: http://www.mediacurves.com/AboutUs.cfm

MediaCurves.com™ is a service of HCD Research, Inc. HCD Research, Inc. is a communications research company that created MediaCurves.com to provide a venue for the media and general public to view Americans’ perceptions of popular and controversial media events and advertisements.

MediaCurves.com™ conducts national surveys online to obtain Americans’ views on advertisements, talk show appearances by political figures, and controversial statements by actors, actresses, political figures and sports personalities. The participants in the survey view a video of the popular or controversial event and move their mouse back and forth on a scale which for example may indicate the participant’s believability or agreement with the video. The responses are compiled and curves are created so that you can see when people agree/disagree or believe/disbelieve what is being said in the video.

To learn more about HCD Research, Inc. and other services the company provides, click here.

Take anything from them with a BIG grain of salt.

[sandyd921]

65. Is this one of those interactive online polls?

Just wondering about credibility here.

http://www.mediacurves.com/

[geek tragedy]

67. I have no doubt that the overall numbers are

dubious--but the internal movement says something.

Also, it backs up what SurveyUSA said.

[Danger Mouse]

68. Online polls are always suspect. Beisdes, you're pushing an agenda.

[Motown_Johnny]

66. as far as bumps go that is tiny.. it will fade, these people change their minds a lot

the Def not vote for McCain went up 7$ and the Def vote for McCain went up 9%, so it is basically a 2% of Indies bump.. no bump from repugs since he was already polling high with them and no bump from Dems since they are not falling for this shit (I am assuming since you have no info other than Indies here)



Don't start all that shit we went through for a week while Obama was in Hawaii and Russia invaded Georgia