POLL: Obama Gains Among Former Clinton Supporters - Convention Unified Party!

[jefferson_dem]

September 2, 2008
Obama Gains Among Former Clinton Supporters
Obama gains on other dimensions, including terrorism and leadership

by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Democratic convention appears to have helped solidify support for Barack Obama among former Hillary Clinton supporters, with the percent saying they will vote for Obama in November moving from 70% pre-convention to 81% after the convention, and the percent certain to vote for Obama jumping from 47% to 65%.



Other pre and post comparisons show that Obama gained modestly in his positioning against John McCain on several dimensions, including the perception that he is better able to handle terrorism and the situation in Iraq, and that he is a strong and decisive leader.

Pre- and Post-Convention Surveys

The analysis reported here compares interviews conducted Aug. 21-23, prior to the beginning of the Democratic National Convention, to interviews conducted Aug. 30-31, days after the conclusion of the convention.

The main purpose of the comparisons is to provide an initial measurement of the impact of the convention on the images of the two candidates (and the two parties) coincident with the convention. This year's timeline provides a challenge of interpretation. In addition to the Democratic convention, the time period between the two surveys being compared here also encompassed McCain's surprise announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate on Friday, and the intensifying news coverage of the approach of Hurricane Gustav throughout the rest of the weekend. Nevertheless, the comparisons give us a basic indication of the overall impact of the convention.

Tracking Hillary Clinton Voters

The Democratic convention appears to have increased certainty of support for Obama among Democratic voters, including in particular among the critical group of Democrats who earlier this year supported Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries (see graph above).

Much attention was given to the fact that only 47% of former Clinton supporters said they were certain to vote for Obama in the pre-convention USA Today/Gallup poll, and that 16% of these voters said they were going to vote for McCain, with another 14% undecided.

The new polling shows that many of these disaffected Clinton voters have now returned to the loyal Democratic fold. The percentage of former Clinton voters who say they are certain to vote for Obama has now jumped to 65%. Although 12% of former Clinton voters persist in saying that they are going to vote for McCain, that's down from 16%, and the percentage who are undecided has dropped in half.

Overall, support for Obama among this group has moved from 70% pre-convention to 81% post-convention.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/109957/Obama-Gains-Among-Former-Clinton-Supporters.aspx

[Growler]

1. K&R

[Mike Daniels]

2. I wouldn't be surprised if the Palin pick brought it all home

Palin was the straw that finally broke the image that McCain in 2008 was the same McCain of 2000.

Any Hillary supporter who still insists on voting for McCain now that Palin's views are becoming more public wasn't going to vote for Obama even if Hillary was the VP.