surprised Obama still sizable lead in Gallup +6

[gabeana]

48 - 42

http://gallup.com/home.aspx

[thewiseguy]

1. Not surprised given that he picked Palin for VP

[Ernesto-Che-Guevara]

2. Why the surprise?

Palin was not expected to erase a 8 point deficit alone. Remember, Biden produced very little bump if any. It wasn't until after Clinton's speech and Bill's and Obama's speeches that the big bump occurred. Therefore, we should wait to see what happens after the GOP convention.

[gabeana]

5. I guess I was meaning from a post from last night

who actually made a lot of sense that Obama would probably be tied by today and next week down by 8

[npincus]

6. yeah, and I don't think 6 points is "sizable"

unless the GOP convention is a demonstrable suck-athon, the lead will certainly diminish.

OK, now here comes the crap from my friends at DU... "FEAR FEAR FEAR, bla blabla"

[Teaser]

12. 6 % is landslide territory. And Gallup has a republican house effect of about 2%

So the lead is more likely to be closer than other polls would measure.

That's a problem with both tracking polls.

[eleny]

3. Maybe more want a Constitutional scholar instead of a biblical know it all

[Kadie]

4. Has there been a recent 'likely voter' poll released?

Isn't that the one (they say) to really keep on eye on?

[tritsofme]

7. Bbbbut...I thought Gallup was just Republican shills!

Or is that only when everyone doesn't like the poll results?

[Thrill]

8. David Poluffe said these Daily Tracking Polls are ridiculous

[gabeana]

9. yup they are

and I desperately need to kick the habit

[Ernesto-Che-Guevara]

11. Any valid reason to prove they are "ridiculous"?

Just wondering.

[Teaser]

13. because they reweight their proportions of R/D/I

to fixed values for every poll. Even though party ID is known to fluctuate with public mood. It has the effect of artificially pushing numbers that are farther apart in their "true" values closer together.

Satisfied, "Che"?

[Thrill]

15. Here you go. Enjoy

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6820061&mesg_id=6820061

[RichardRay]

10. 538 weights by age and poll type

Right now they've got the EC going 290 for Obama, 248 for McCain (270 to win). The popular vote is very tight at 48.8% Obama to 47.9% McCain, though, so an Obama victory hinges on the same kind of canny play we saw in the primaries.

See: fivethirtyeight.com

[Teaser]

14. The 290 value from 538 is a maximum likelihood value

which means it's only the *most likely* outcome. There are other outcomes in which O wins, and if you add them all up, O wins in 60% of scenarios Nate runs.

[RichardRay]

20. That's his 'Win Percentage', right?

The percent of all scenaria in which each candidate wins at all?

His Scenario Analysis has some really interesting details:

Likelihood that McCain wins all the states that Bush won is only 12%, while likelihood that Obama wins all the states Kerry won is 57%.

Likelihood that Obama could lose Ohio and still win the election is 26%, likelihood for McCain to do the same is .5% (that's 1/2 of 1 percent).

No wonder Ohio is getting lots of attention!

[nycmjkfan]

16. I still think

with the fact that these polls rarely, if ever, poll first time voters, there are a lot of young Obama votes that are not tracked.

[ejpoeta]

17. isn't that considered a dead heat!! *snark*

[totodeinhere]

18. We will get a better sense of where this race really is after the pukes finish their convention.

And it will be regional polls in the battleground states that we need to pay attention to, not the national polls.

IMO, McSame will not get any kind of bounce from his convention and Obama will lead all the way to November.

[GoesTo11]

19. Good news!

Last 8 days of 3-day average results:

45-45-44-45-48-49-49-48
vs.
45-45-46-44-42-41-41-42


Stable up through Wednesday's released numbers (i.e., Tuesday's poll pre-Hillary speech), so about 45-45 on days until then.
One day's numbers gave a big boost after Hillary's speech brought it up to 48-42. That day's numbers just dropped out, so Saturday's numbers must not have been too bad for the average to stay up.

My calculations assuming that the last 3 single days up through Tuesday were 45-45-45:

Wed: 54-36 (Bump from Hillary endorsement)
Thur: 48-42 (cooling off)
Fri: 45-45 (Palin day offset Obama's speech)
Sat: 51-39 (People thought about Obama's speech and about Palin)