What Obama's up against (why we're not up by 30+, or whatever):

[smoogatz]

It's the same old list, plus one:

1.20-25% of the electorate are social-conservative, one-or-two issue voters (abortion/guns) who will never, ever vote for a pro-choice Dem, no matter who he/she is.

2.Democrats will always be perceived as "weaker" on "defense" than Republicans. This narrative didn't just happen under Rove or Atwater, it's been around at least since the end of WWII, when Roosevelt was derided as being "weak" on communism by a lot of the same rightwing assholes that supported the 1933 Business Plot to overthrow FDR and turn the U.S. into a fascist dictatorship. Basically, in American politics, if you're not of the opinion that the use of military force against any/all perceived adversaries of laissez-faire capitalism should be the nation's first recourse rather than the last resort, you're some kind of effeminate commie. This narrative will be with us, in one form or another, until judgment day.

3.The media, whether by habit or intention, are inclined to favor Republicans. I think this is partly a result of direct intervention by their corporate overlords, who dislike liberal tinkering with things like media consolidation and regulation, and partly an unconscious capitulation after years of rightwing howling about liberal media bias. Whatever the reason, the pendulum of media bias has clearly swung far to the right: when I was a teenager in the '70s, Fox News would have been howled off the air by the mainstream news organizations as a preposterous rightwing self-parody.

4.Intra-party squabbles and general campaign bumbling. We seem to be getting over the former, finally, and Dean and the Obama campaign appear to have nearly overcome the latter. But both have been historic bugaboos that have cost us big in presidential elections.

+1.Racism. Plain old dumb-as-fuck can't-vote-for-the-black-dude racism. I have no idea what the number is--how many Americans will vote for McCain because they can't vote for the uppity black guy? No one knows, but I think the evidence is clear that racism is nowhere near dead in America; it bubbles just below the surface of American politics every four years, one way or another.

[Green Mountain Dem]

1. How do you explain....

latest Gallup tracking poll showing McC up by 2?? Fixed or nor public is influenced by MSM constantly repeating that Obama in trouble and we have no effective way to refute. Seems like we're in for another stolen election and no way to stop it from happening! Who will stop the rain ??

[Avalux]

3. Step away from the poll - now.

National polls are not reliable at best; blatant tools for manipulation at worst. National polls are not reliable indicators of who will win the election.

[Cosmocat]

5. whistling past the graveyard ...

Polls are not PERFECT, but they ARE strong indicators.

I do think that some of the pollsters are ginning them up a bit, there are TOO many that are within a couple points that show very troubling trends. I agree with the post above, the media is getting Obama going BOTH ways, and BO is helpless to do anything about it.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

2. I wonder what a mirror list from the GOP side would look like?

What would they cite as the 4 - 5 reasons they can't rule the world aren't up by 30%?

[IEatRepublicans]

4. It can be stopped when we start attacking

The media loves controversy, Repubs give them that. Until we do, they will always dominate the media cycle and therefore control how the campaign is spun