I count 15 National Polls. I count Kerry leading in 13 of them.

[TruthIsAll]

Take it from TRUTH:

Kerry's numbers are far better than they would have you believe.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

Date Poll Kerry Bush
807 TIME 51 43
826 FOX 45 44
826 CNN 48 47
825 LAT 46 49
810 PEW 47 45

823 IBD 44 44
818 CBS 45 44
805 DEMC 52 45
802 ABC 52 45
730 NWK 52 44

814 ZOGBY 50 43
806 AP 48 45
826 NBC 45 47
801 ARG 49 46
722 QPAC 46 43

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Ducks In A Row]

2. :D

[trumad]

4. Dude... what's with your snarly posts....

..... Did you hear the spin on the LA Times poll.... This counters it.

[artslave43]

3. Electorial votes

Today on MSN NBC ZOGBY POLL of the ELECTORAL VOTES-----

KERRY 286

 BUSH 214

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

8. Link please. nt

[Can o Beans]

5. All right truth...

I do stats for a living. I see what you are saying. But the trendline sorted by date is not looking good...looks like an early peak to me. I know these things tend to look like sine waves, so I do expect a turnaround between now and D-day, but I have to tell you...I am standing out on the ledge and staring into the abyss right about now.

I know your sim holds up, but only 6 polls need to change to crush the confidence interval.

Thanks for doing this, and I will try to stay on the ledge a little longer. The only thing keeping me afloat right now is I know we can lose OH and FL battles and still win the war.

Keep pluggin,
Can

[lancdem]

6. I think Kerry will really bounce back after the RNC

At least, I hope so.

[DemBones DemBones]

9. I'm not liking that abyss one bit myself.

Welcome to DU! :hi: More than a few Tom Robbins fans here, one called Jitterbug Perfume. I once used the alias Bonanza Jellybean myself, in memory of my own days as a cowgirl.

[Can o Beans]

11. Thanks.

This board has been a great find for me.

Glad to hear there are more Robbinsites here as well. We all share the same brain cell to a certain extent, skinny legs and all.

[michigandem2]

7. the media

are hyping the la times poll as if it were the ONE to check into...all others show him ahead...and BTW...its august people...Bush will be ahead for a while...probably until the middle of september..but we got debates...OH I can't freaking wait for those

It just IRKS me to hear the freaking talking heads on that poll...they won't read any other polls and ignore the ones that Kerry is "slightly ahead" on...funny how that works?

[DemBones DemBones]

10. I'm glad to see those. This is a nerve-wracking

election year.

[WI_DEM]

12. Good point

but, many of the polls Kerry is leading in are old polls. Bush is probably going to be leading most polls after his convention. But this is not anything to panic about. The race will grow even and then the debates will be critical. Bush is running for re-election in a country that believes that we are moving in the wrong direction by big margins. This is why I think in the end Kerry will win. Polls until after Labor Day and both conventions are pretty meaningless anyway.

[noonwitch]

13. He's up a point in yesterday's FOX poll-that's significant

FOX is not exactly neutral on this.

[BillZBubb]

14. But Fox is just gaming us.

After the RNC, Kerry's "up a point" goes away and Bush* has (TADAA!) had a huge bounce. And the spin will go wild.