Smear "Bump" Then BACKLASH=Negative Post-Convention "Bounce"?

[Beetwasher]

I think the smear may have set Bush up for the first significant post-convention negative "bounce" in history.

IMO, the smear's effect was minimal and may have resulted in a minor shift towards Bush, however, I think the backlash will be MORE significant. The effect of the timing of the smear and Kerry's defense, is that Bush goes into the convention with a slight lead or neck and neck, whichever poll you choose to believe. I don't see the convention changing anyone's mind TO Bush, however, I DO see the prospect of a backlash from the smear, and those effects will be reflected in post-convention polls!

This means Bush may very well come out of the convention doing WORSE than he did going in!

[aden_nak]

1. You know what that means. . .

Terr'a'lert!

[BootinUp]

2. You folks are so quick

I have to agree. :)

[Myrina]

3. He has nothing to Convention on !!

Heard earlier today that * plans to run on 'How Kerry is the Wrong Man to Lead' .... uhh, George ? aren't you supposed to be convincing the voters that you're the right man to lead ??

Oh, that's right ... you have no evidence to back that up !!! :freak:

[Renew Deal]

4. Bushler was the first person to come out negative from the SOTU.

It wouldn't surprise me. They fuck up everything.

[wurzel]

5. Repukes making 527's the issue rather than their content!

And the media, as usual, is helping them.

[yellowcanine]

6. Prison scandal is also raining on the Bush convention parade.

2 reports out this week are going to dominate news going into convention.

I also think there will be media discussion about whether Bush is trying to gain politically from 9-11 tragedy with his plan to watch some of the convention from firehouses. (Of course he is). This is so heavy handed it is almost unbelievable. All in all, I think you are correct - there may be a negative convention bounce.

[Davis_X_Machina]

7. Except for the immediate post-9/11 period...

the fastest way to raise Bush's numbers has been to put him on ice. His vacations poll better than his occasional lurches into governance.

Now comes his big close-up....

[cheezus]

8. I'm expecting a 15 point bounce

at least ;)

[phish420]

9. 15 pt

yeah, lets get the same sype they tried to pass on to us...anything less than 15 pts is an 'unsuccessful' convention. :-)

[cheezus]

13. yep. any smaller bounce would mean a huge failure for the convention

[Beetwasher]

10. Yes, Of Course!

How silly of me! ;-)

[wicket]

11. Aw c'mon, it's going to be AT LEAST 35 to 40 points!

:evilgrin:

[Raya]

14. Can keep bounce to 15% if there is a hard-hitting Smear Counter-Attack

going on next week. GO MoveOn!

[GingerSnaps]

12. We won't hear about his negatives

We will know that they are there but we are not going to hear about his negatives from the right wing press nuts.

I think that you are right and your message has a truthful ring to it.