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More Polling: Biden does EXCELLENT with undecideds and independents

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JohnnyCougar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-23-08 08:31 PM
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More Polling: Biden does EXCELLENT with undecideds and independents
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/can-biden-out-hi...

Nate Silver explains.

Democrats

Candidate Fav-Unfav
Clinton 77-22 (+55)
Biden 65-17 (+48)
Bayh 45-25 (+20)
Sebelius 35-19 (+16)
Kaine 35-29 (+6)


Republicans

Candidate Fav-Unfav
Kaine 29-30 (-1)
Bayh 23-43 (-20)
Sebelius 14-45 (-31)
Biden 22-63 (-39)
Clinton 21-75 (-54)



Indepedents

Candidate Fav-Unfav
Biden 42-29 (+13)
Bayh 31-21 (+10)
Kaine 24-23 (+1)
Sebelius 18-21 (-3)
Clinton 39-57 (-18)


As well as polling better than any possible VP among independents, Biden polls similarly well among undecideds at 43-22 fav/unfav.

Furthermore, Nate Silver came up with a quick formula to calculate how much each candidate would add to the ticket:

Let's take one more, slightly different take on this. This time, we'll look at impressions of the candidates based not on party ID, but rather, based on who the voters had intended to vote for in November. Let's make the following assumptions:

- For each McCain voter that has a very favorable view of Biden, one-quarter of them will switch their vote to Obama.

- For each McCain voter that has a somewhat favorable view of Biden, one-eighth of them will switch their vote to Obama.

- For each Obama voter that has a somewhat unfavorable view of Biden, one-eighth of them will switch their vote to McCain.

- For each Obama voter that has a very unfavorable view of Biden, one-quarter of them will switch their vote to McCain.

Does that sound reasonable? It sounds reasonable to me, though I really have no idea. But let's run the numbers and see what we get:


VF = Very Favorable
SF = Somewhat Favorable
VU = Very Unfavorable
SU = Somewhat Unfavorable

... McCain Voters Obama Voters
Candidate VF SF VU SU Net Margin
Biden 4 20 5 10 +2.00
Bayh 4 19 4 16 +0.75
Kaine 8 21 8 20 +0.25
Clinton 11 14 13 14 -0.50
Sebelius 3 13 5 13 -0.50

What's noteworthy is not so much that Biden will turn a lot of McCain voters on -- Tim Kaine and Hillary Clinton would have done a better job of that -- but that he'll turn very few Obama voters off. As a result, this method projects a net swing of 2 points toward Obama, which is better than he'd do with any of the other candidates.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-23-08 08:43 PM
Response to Original message
1. kick
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JohnnyCougar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-24-08 04:12 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Double kick.
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-24-08 04:13 AM
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3. One of the many reasons they chose him no doubt. K&R
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Egnever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-24-08 04:18 AM
Response to Original message
4. Well what do you know its the Unity ticket :)
Joe Rocks !

Thanks for the numbers.
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