Top Ten Reasons Why Obama Isn't Crushing McBush

[berni_mccoy]

10. Single Issue Voters (guns, anti-women)
9. Bush still has 30% support... these people will blindly follow McBush
8. McBush has hired Rove and his cronies
7. The 60% of Republicans who no longer support Bush are blind enough to think McBush is different
6. The Media has portrayed a false division in the Democratic Party...seeds of doubt
5. Racism... yes, it's a sad reality about America.
4. McBush McLies and isn't called on it (except by the blogosphere)
3. Pollsters mistakenly (falsely?) weight their polls to what they think is the right mix of Dems/Repubs/Independents... let's see the raw data.
2. Big Oil is a caged animal right now. And caged animals are dangerous.

And the # 1 Reason why Obama isn't Crushing McBush in the polls:

1. The same MSM who brought you the B.S. about Iraq wants this to be a close race.

[enough]

1. The corporate media doesn't just want a close race, they want a McCain win.

The close race helps that by making stolen elections look less suspicious.

I agree that the MSM is the number one reason.

[Doctor_J]

5. No shit

I can't believe how many "Dems" buy into the "MSM wants a close race" horseshit. It's even stupider than "they only want ratings". A real look into McCain's adultery and the Keating 5 would be ratings bonanzas, but they won't touch either one. They want McSame to win. Period.

[Rageneau]

11. But back during the primaries, the MSM wanted an Obama win.

The treatment BO has been receiving from the press lately is very different from the treatment he received during the primaries. Back then, it was Hillary who could do no right, whose every word was analyzed in search of something to criticize, whose every gesture was second-guessed, denigrated, and ridiculed.

It was as clear to us Hllary supporters back then as it is to Obama supporters now that the MSM clearly hated our candidate and was targeting her for relentless bad press -- with the willing help of wingnuts and insult-spewing, mean-spirited, hotheaded Democrats

We Hillary supporters warned BO's folks st that time that, once HRC was out of the way, the MSM's harsh treatment would devolve upon Barrack.

And so it has.

The right-wing media giveth, and the right-wing media taketh away.

[enough]

13. And, had Hillary won the primary, they would be doing everything they could

to destroy her and support McCain.

Everything that's being done to Barack now would be happening to Hillary (including a "bestseller" by Corsi).

[Arkana]

17. Horseshit.

Obama was pilloried for Rev. Wright, Rezko, Ayers...don't sit there and tell me the media handled him with kid gloves.

The media tore both candidates down to build Grampy up into the Second Coming of God-Emperor Reagan.

[Cosmocat]

22. You are both correct/wrong ...

fact is, the media was rooting for BO when Hill was the clear presumpting D candidate ...

the media turned on him like a rabid dog once it became clear that BO was all but assured of the nomination, and Hill went from some ambitious, evil woman to the hero of the middle class ...

It isn't about BO or Hill, it is about the media doing the bidding of the republican party ... Tear down the democratic presidential candidate ...

[blm]

34. Sure - that's why they played the Wright clips repeatedly for over a month during the primaries

hoping Obama would implode.

[Dinger]

24. diebold won't work if margin is less than 5%

Smaller margins are exactly what they need, or stealing elections becomes MUCH more difficult.

[freesqueeze]

2. I'm surprised racism was only #4

I thought it was going to be one of those joke lists...IE

1. He's multi-ethnic
2. He's multi-ethnic
3. He's multi-ethnic
4. He's multi-ethnic
5. He's multi-ethnic
6. He's multi-ethnic
7. He's multi-ethnic
8. He's multi-ethnic
9. He's multi-ethnic
10. He's multi-ethnic

Don't underestimate the racism lurking under the surface in today's America.

[spin]

32. We have come a long way in this country...

I'm old enough to remember the controversy caused by JFK being Catholic. Twenty five years ago, an African American or a woman would have had NO chance of being elected President.

Racism still exists and it will be a factor in the upcoming election. Fortunately it may not be the most important factor.

[blm]

3. The real top ten: AP, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNBC, FOX, NYT, WaPost.

.

[spin]

31. The closer the race the more people will watch the news...

and the more the news ratings will rise. The candidates will spend more money on TV commercials. A close race means the main stream media will make more money. There's no excitement in a race if one candidate is far, far ahead of his opponent. If one candidate does establish a significant lead the media will focus on bringing him down to the level of his opponent.

[2Design]

4. media misreporting - republicans are willing to vote for mcsame to

get the same for themselves and hurt others - they really don't care for america or this planet - they are selfish and crazy as we see on fox news, and ann coulter, and nancy grace is killed people with are snide remarks - just all bullies

[racaulk]

6. Excellent list!

Sadly for Obama, I think you're spot on.

K&R

[Drunken Irishman]

7. The biggest reason is that this electorate is still divided.

It has been divided for quite a long time now. Why do you think a popular candidate like Clinton failed to win over 50% of the vote in either election? It wasn't just because of Perot. It was because this nation is almost 40-40-20. You saw it in 2000 and again in 2004 and you'll probably see it this time around, as well.

Obama talks about uniting this country, well that only comes AFTER he wins the presidency. Before, he still has to go up against the same divisions that created the past two close elections.

[smoogatz]

10. You make an excellent point.

Much of the country remains deeply conservative, even though they realize (mostly) that Bush has made a hash of things. Which I think lends support to the notion that Obama's best strategy for winning over independents and keeping conservatives at home on election day is to continually tie McCain to Bush. The internal slogan should be: Same shit, different asshole.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Right.

It's a mess, but there is 40% of this country who probably still is ideologically conservative. That didn't change because Bush was a major fuck up. So that's basically 40% of the electorate Obama has no shot of winning and now it becomes a race between who can get the independent vote. If Obama wins that, even by a slim margin, he's the next POTUS.

[berni_mccoy]

15. Yes, good point. I'd make that reason #0.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

20. America is a kind of dinosaur when it comes to elections

it will take a long time to move forward as it is going backwards.

[grantcart]

8. 11) McCain is emptying his primary warchest with massive ad buys while

Obama is mostly hoarding his for when it will really count

12) The polls are based on certain assumptions of voter turnout by demographic breakdown based on past elections. What would happen if, for example, minorities were motivated to turn out in larger numbers.

That got me wondering and I asked phrigndumass to look at Texas and reproject the race on slightly higher AA and hispanic vote participation (which of course is likely). Here is his opinion:

TEXAS ... I have Texas numbers.

Figuring in a 10% increase in African American voters, and a 15% increase in Latino voters, and a small 2% increase in white, non-Hispanic voters, we get the following turnout in Texas:

Projected turnout 2008 in Texas:
Black - 914,461
Latino - 1,440,557
White - 5,602,023
Other - 50,501
Total Votes 2008 - 8,007,542

Assume the following votes for Obama in Texas:
Black - 95%
Latino - 70%
White - 37.35%
Other - 70%

Obama wins Texas with 50.01% of the vote. If the white percentage is lower than 37.35% for Obama, Obama loses Texas.

Further, if the Latino vote is only 65% for Obama, then Obama must win at least 38.62% of the white vote to win Texas.

60% Latino for Obama = 39.91% of white vote for Obama to win Texas.

It's safe to say that if Obama wins 40% of the white vote in Texas, then Texas is a toss-up.

If Texas is in contention we are not talking about a win but a landslide. That would be like the Republicans being competitive in California.


And a final thought to cheer folks up. It is much better that Obama's real figures be underestimated because when his numbers go up it will show he has momentum while if they were overstated and they came down a bit they would say that he is fading.

[OmahaBlueDog]

26. That's a nice bit of Political Science

I'd love to see projections like that for MI, FL, NC, and VA. Thanks!

[eshfemme]

9. Great post. A nice breakdown for why it's still a "close" race.

[anonymous171]

14. Obama needs to attack McSame on his foreign policy credentials, or lack thereof.

Everyone thinks that McCain is some kind of foreign policy genius, that's why his poll numbers are up.

[Upton]

16. You left one out: Obama is running a weak campaign

they are allowing McCain to define him and put him on the defensive while sitting back and doing virtually nothing. Obama needs to go on the attack, right now things are trending McCain. If things aren't turned around we're not going to win this election.

[berni_mccoy]

18. Sorry, that's a false argument.

[OmahaBlueDog]

19. It may not have made your list, but I wouldn't call it false

Barack's campaign has not seemed nearly as on target or on message since the primaries ended. For a while, that didn't matter, because McSame was running one of the most inept campaigns since Dewey in '48. However, since his campaign staff shake up, he's started to speak effectively and stay on message.

I think first and foremost he needs to hit McSame back in kind with some negative advertising of his own. Failure to return fire=weakness in the minds of many voters -- ask John Kerry or Mike Dukakis.

I don't want you to take this post the wrong way. I thought your list was great, and every reason you gave was valid.

[Diamonique]

23. Obama is running targeted attack ads now...

... in specific states, not nationally.

He has a plan, and so far it looks pretty good to me.

[the_real_38]

30. How is it false when it's true in practice?

Obama is running against a candidate from the intensely unpopular GOP, the public is sick of the war in Iraq, and they blame Bush for gas prices and the bad state of the economy. He has more money and fawning media coverage in addition to these advantages. And yet McCain is still in the running because of some ads portraying the presumed Democratic nominee as a 'celebrity'. And Obama hasn't figured out how to effectively counter stupid s*** like that.

The numbers show that he is not making inroads in the demographics he needs to - white working-class voters for one. He needs to get off of his Berlin high horse and get down to business.

[wolverinez]

28. I agree. Sure, the Obama camp is running issue attacks...

in select states, but they haven't even tried to define McCain's character at all.

[Occam Bandage]

21. #0: He's holding his attacks for after the convention, when McCain won't have the cash

necessary to refute them.

[AnnieBW]

25. 11. He's Black

There's a lot of racists out there. Or people in denial of being racists.

[regnaD kciN]

27. Actually, I'd put it more like...

10. He's black.
9. He's black.
8. He's black.
7. He's black.
6. He's black.
5. He's black.
4. He's black.
3. He's black.
2. He's black.
1. He's black.

:-(

[tinrobot]

29. Ummm... he is crushing McBush

Just not getting reported.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[barack the house]

35. Advertising feed this beast of close races. Make political TV ads illegal bill boards radio---

newspapers only. With close races both sides need to advertise aggressively.