Black Vote in November

[DangerDave921]

I am assuming that Obama is going to cause increased voter turn-out amongst blacks this November. But my question is this: What states are really going to be impacted by that increased turn-out? In other words, increased turn-out won't really make a difference in those states that Obama will already win (Maryland, New York, Illinois) and in the states that he's already going to lose (I'm thinking most of the deep south).

So: in what states could increased black turn-out really be the difference in winning? I'm thinking PA maybe (because of Philly). Are there others?

[Alter Ego]

1. Virginia and North Carolina and possibly Florida, to name a few.

Anywhere in the South where we're within a few points of McAngry.

[billyoc]

2. Mississippi, combined with McCain's "no earmarks" blustering, could go blue.

Mississippi would starve in the dark without earmarks.

[ingac70]

4. I think white voters in Miss. are too stupid to realize that.

As with most of the South.

[darius15]

22. The day Mississippi goes for Obama is the day

racism is over in the country.

[JoshDem]

25. Us winning Mississipopi is Ridiculous

There is simply no way.

[ingac70]

3. Won't make much difference...

The states Obama needs to seal the deal don't have significant black populations (like Iowa)

[elkston]

5. Disagree. North Carolina is definitely in play. Big AA population here...

that includes ME!

[ingac70]

7. If Obama wins NC I'll be pleasantly suprised.

I think he is more apt to pick up states out West.

[JoshDem]

27. He should Focus in Midwest

I agree on New Mexico with growing Hispanic vote but think odds are against us in Colorado and Montana and Nevada and close to zero in Idaho, Wyoming, Utah and Arizona. We should focus on Ohio and Michigan above all other states.

[my3boyz]

9. Hispanics are the people he needs to get to turn out. That will help

in New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona.......I heard he invested a lot of money in trying to get them to the polls.

[ingac70]

16. Yep...

blacks are mostly in regions dominated by RepubliCON rednecks, and though Obama will make for awesome turnout in those areas for Dems, it won't be enough to win them.

You are correct. Hispanics will make the difference this election.

[vaberella]

20. He won't have to worry about them. Most Latinos who are Dem will dependably vote Dem.

That's why I'm not worried about that. If they were going to vote for Clinton, they'll vote for Obama because he's the Dem nominee and that's the end of it, even if some may have issues with his race.

[blondeatlast]

24. He won't win in AZ for obvious reasons; I'd rather he channel resources elsewhere.

We don't have that many EVs anyway.

[BlooInBloo]

6. Uh.... we always win PA.

[my3boyz]

8. Uh..they said Obama could not win PA..only Hillary. nt

[BlooInBloo]

10. Hm.... electoral history on the one hand versus what "they say" on the other...

Yah - I see how that's a tough battle.

[my3boyz]

12. Uh..they said PA was like Alabama in the middle and they would not vote for a black man. nt

[BlooInBloo]

14. "They" say a lot of things....

Per the best election models, Obama wins PA 85% of the time. That's not "leaning" blue, that's just blue.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[DangerDave921]

11. Always?

What about 1980, 1984, and 1988?

Also, Kerry won PA by only 2.5 percentage points in 2004. Not exactly a landslide, so I still consider PA to be in play, albeit certainly leaning Dem.

[my3boyz]

13. Exactly. Plus Obama is the first AA to run for president so we have no

idea how many traditional dem voters won't vote for a black man.

[BlooInBloo]

17. (shrug) The last 20 years suffices for the purposes of this conversation...

Except for quibblemasters, I suppose.

[DangerDave921]

18. Then don't say "always"

if you don't want someone to point out your error. Four past elections does not "always" make. You could have just as easily said, "PA has gone Dem the last four elections."

[BlooInBloo]

21. Always.

[my3boyz]

15. I think increasing AA turn-out in the Richmond, VA area could help with VA. nt

[vaberella]

19. I think Georgia will go blue. Texas is on the fence for me---> but I lean blue.

Just for the hell of it, I'll throw in Arkansas as well.

[darius15]

23. Those states aren't going blue!

AR would if Hillary is on the ticket.

[JoshDem]

26. Lets add in Utah and Idaho while we're at it

Heck--as much chance of us winning these as the ones mentioned above.