The Daily Widget – Wednesday, Aug 13 – Obama 335, McCain 203 – AK, FL, KY, NC

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. ANALYSIS

The number of Undecided voters continues to drop nationwide, and their piece of the pie is now down to a low 5.4%. Looking at our Projected Popular Vote graph (Figure 6a below), it appears this has happened just over the past couple weeks, and it also looks like they are breaking slightly more for McCain than Obama, based on the state poll results. McCain is busy energizing his base and shoring up votes in the red states, while Obama’s lead in the swing states as a group has dipped to +3.2% (51.6% to 48.4%) as shown in the total tracking graph (Figure 5a below).

Survey USA has released two new state polls, neither of them surprising. They show McCain leading in Kentucky by 18 points and leading in North Carolina by 4 points. (It feels good to say North Carolina being close isn’t surprising!)

Two other polls released yesterday were conducted by smaller polling outfits. Insider Advantage shows McCain leading by 4 points in Florida, but Barr is now polling at 2% there. Barr is increasing in Florida. Meanwhile, Nader is dropping in Alaska, where Hays Research Group shows Obama leading by 5 points. This may be a lolpoll, although the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers hired Hays to conduct it and the methods seem legitimate (it wasn’t a push poll). We’ll treat it as a partisan poll and include it as averaged with the Rasmussen Alaska poll conducted seven days earlier.


* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS


Alaska Obama 45, McCain 40, Nader 2 (Hays Research Group, 8/7, +/- 4.9, 400 RV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 48, Barr 2 (Insider Advantage, 8/11, +/- 5.0, 418 RV)
Kentucky Obama 37, McCain 55 (Survey USA, 8/11, +/- 3.9, 636 LV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 8/11, +/- 3.9, 655 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *


7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








* * * * * * *


8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Good Morning!

The convention and VP pick should help bring undecideds our way, right?

I went to my new county's meeting last night and the field organizer said that they have started calling R women now. He is pleasantly surprised at how many have said that they will be voting for Obama in Nov.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. Women in Maine will keep it safe for Obama :)

But let's hope they topple Collins.

Yep, the convention and VP pick will give Obama a bounce :bounce:

The two conventions are going to oppose each other drastically this year, lol ... It'll be a week of Hope and Unity from the Democratic convention followed a few days later by a week of Fear and Divisiveness from the republican convention. We should get a bounce from that, too.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. Off to work kick

:kick: Enjoy your day

[DavidDvorkin]

4. So we should be calling a majority of the undecideds idiots

Grr.

[phrigndumass]

10. Maybe McCain is taking his half now, and the rest belong to Obama :)

That would be the ticket!

:hi:

[tekisui]

5. Obama looks to be within the MOE in NC, and that is without

Nader/Barr/McKinney, right?

I am not sure that McKinney has made it on the ballot yet, but at any rate...

Looks Good!

[phrigndumass]

11. True!

The NC poll is without third party candidates. But the most I've seen for Barr in North Carolina at this point is 5%.

:hi:

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

6. rockin', phrig. thanks.

[phrigndumass]

12. yw dms

:headbang:

[livetohike]

7. Thanks phrigndumass!

K+R

[phrigndumass]

13. yw L2H

Thanks backatcha :hi:

[Demeter]

8. Although I Don't Completely Dismiss Fears of Another Stolen Election

I think the GOP will concentrate on denying us 60 Senators, and try to grab a few statehouses. They might make use of the fraud machines for these purposes, unless this race gets a lot tighter. Then fear of another bogus result would seem much more real.

[phrigndumass]

14. Agreed 100% :)

Putting the race out of reach is necessary so President Obama can do something about bogus elections!

:hi:

[d_b]

9. i'll

shit rainbows if he wins alaska

[phrigndumass]

15. Make sure to have your camera on hand :)

You might be able to sell that picture to the Enquirer :D

:hi:

[d_b]

18. haha

"anchorage man shits rainbows!"

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. K&R Thanks ! Hey, what's up with OK? Are they the dumbest

state in the union?

[phrigndumass]

17. They're not OK, lol

I think it's dementia on a massive scale. Must be in the water. :crazy:

Thanks! :hi:

[Doctor_J]

19. The propaganda onslaught is starting to take its toll

Democracy will not be restored in the US until Big Media is destroyed.

[FVZA_Colonel]

20. The numbers were higher a week or so ago.

The media just won't fucking stop and actually follow up on McCain's claims.