George K. Galbraith on "statistical ties" and "margin of error."

[mistertrickster]

This may have been posted already because it's date line is August 20th from Salon--but it's good info on how to interprete polling statistics that we should keep in mind.

<QUOTE>
The statistically illiterate Washington press corps keeps saying the race is "a statistical tie." It isn't. Kerry is plainly ahead. The margin of error doesn't mean that the difference between Kerry and Bush is meaningless. It means that if the poll were repeated, Kerry's share would fall within the reported range 95 percent of the time. His actual lead might be smaller. And it could also be more.

<END QUOTE>

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/08/20/galbraith_bush_carter/index.html

[glitch]

1. James K. Galbraith

You got me all excited thinking there was another brilliant Galbraith out there.

[mistertrickster]

3. Ah, right, my bad--but I did get you excited.

That must be worth something, heh . . .

And I confused "it's" (it is) with "its" (possessive pronoun). Must be having a bad day . . .

[Julien Sorel]

5. John Kenneth?

He is the father of James, and much more famous.

[NoBorders]

2. that's what I vaguely remember from stat class

thanks for posting it--helps the old memory bank!

[The Magistrate]

4. People Do Need To Remember This, Sir

They also need to remember that probabilities suggest the bulk of repetitions would cluster within the center of the range, and only a few of the results would be at its extremities. Thus, if the lead shown for one figure over the other is barely within the margin of error, it does not mean that the other figure could easily be really ahead, or that the thing is really a tie; it means that two unlikely things would have to have happened, namely that each result is at the opposite end of the error margin, simultaneously, for the real result to be anything but the lead indicated on the face of the figures.

"A roulette table pays only him who keeps it, yet while we often speak of a passion for roulette, when do we hear of a passion for keeping roulette tables?"

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"