Does anyone really think that Obama lost 9 points in 6 days like Gallup showed?

[cbc5g]

I don't.

[Danger Mouse]

1. Statistics are easy to manipulate.

[sniffa]

2. What does Intrade show?

Obama at 63%.

[NYC_SKP]

9. And the state by state polls are very encouraging.

Even Kentucky is trending blue, along with FL, MI, MO, PA, OH, VA, NM, and McCains own AZ!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6573215&mesg_id=6573215

:patriot:

[tekisui]

19. A NC poll has Obama statistically tied.

[NYC_SKP]

20. There's a positive, though modest, trend in NC.

Are there coordinated efforts planned to GOTV, especially with low income and older voters.

I'm hoping people will begin a campaign to take the day to shuttle voters in need of a ride to their polling places.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6573401&mesg_id=6573401

[unapatriciated]

46. We are planing to take the day off...

So we can do just that. I hope more will volunteer to shuttle voters, especially in the southern states.

[NYC_SKP]

48. EXCELLENT!

You rock!

:applause:

[unapatriciated]

49. Thanks since we work odd hours it is hard for us to attend Rallies..

so we decided to do this and will probably phone bank in September and October.

Since we live in Georgia I think it is very important to get out the vote here (transplanted Californians)

[NYC_SKP]

50. Well hello from California

It's great to hear from people around the country and about all the different ways we're going to make sure we don't screwed again.

The support is there, the voters are there, I think we'll get it done this time!

:hi:

[unapatriciated]

51. I was out there last month to visit my kids...

youngest lives in Castro Valley. I lived in Mammoth Lakes for ten years than Dana Point for two years, I really miss the beach here in Atlanta.

:hi:

[NYC_SKP]

53. Castro Valley is close to me and I lived in the Oakland Hills for a year long ago.

I've only been through Georgia once, Atlanta was pretty but it was pretty humid when I was there.

Like you, I like being near the ocean.

:thumbsup:

[unapatriciated]

54. not to mention being near my grandbabies...

We hope to retire in Redding.
well I'm off to work(TJ's). Like I said we work odd hours.

[Political Heretic]

30. The most reliable indicator because there's money riding on it :P

[NYC_SKP]

3. No, it's crap. nt.

[yellowdogintexas]

4. not just no but HELL NO nt

[Zynx]

5. No. I think there may have been some tightening, but not that much.

[madaboutharry]

6. I don't either.

It is bullshit. McCain puts out a few stupid ass and immature commercials and Obama loses 9 points. That is millions of people. I don't see how this can be true when the general opinion is that the McCain campaign is acting like a bunch of assholes.

[Blondiegrrl]

26. I was reading the responses to the article posted at CNN. The article

about "The One" web commercial generated several hundred replies, and I read every one of them. Out of all those replies, there was ONE McCain supporter. Another couple of replies were anti-Obama, but they didn't even mention McCain (one thought Obama was the anti-Christ). All the rest of the replies were from people who were pro-Obama or fence sitters who said the ad had pushed them off the fence onto Obama's side.

[cbc5g]

7. The MSM is all over it saying Obama is starting to lose it..LOL

Are they fucking serious? Millions of people changed their minds in the last week? Who the hell are they fooling?

[donco6]

10. I guess Paris, Brittney and Charleton have more pull.

Than . . . say . . . common sense.

[NYC_SKP]

11. He can't close the deal....OMG!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6573215&mesg_id=6573215

[sniffa]

22. MSM? What about the loud chicken littles of DU?

[Life Long Dem]

8. What about the 15 point drop with Newsweek poll?

Seems like they are handicapping Obama to keep it close, and calling it the undecideds.

[NanceGreggs]

12. In a word - nope!

Political polls are quickly gaining on the MSM in the non-credibility race.

[Occam Bandage]

13. The news has been all over McCain's attack ads. Obama hasn't hit back. I'm not shocked.

[Quixote1818]

14. No, Gallup is owned by the corporations and they want a close race

they are going to manipulate the numbers to make it look close. At the end of the campaign they will start steering their numbers to match reality.

[FrenchieCat]

15. Like McCain and his Corp. Media , the Pollsters are in on it as well.

[RazBerryBeret]

16. I seriously think the polls are shit ....

but, I have this trepidation whenever Obama's margin widens. I want him to win big time, but I almost want it to be under the radar. I know that sounds crazy but I am honestly concerned about what THEY will do if the polls read landslide and they think they don't have a chance....call me crazy....

[DemocracyInaction]

17. Maybe

I've been watching Rassmassen (sp.?) doing basically the same thing in the same period of time. And then this: they report that since January the number of people identifying themselves as "Democrats" has dropped 2% to under 40% for the first time. There is a trend going on and we would be stupid to ignore it. There needs to be some rethinking and retooling in the Obama campaign.

[Life Long Dem]

25. And the highest in 4 years.

I don't think it's an issue. You normally see fluctuation.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/party_affiliation/summary_of_party_affiliation

[Teaser]

18. No, he was never up by 9

They polled some people on a day when they'd seen him on the news a lot with good images. They were watching the news, therefore they were home, therefore they were more likely to be there to answer the poll.

[Phoonzang]

21. Possibly ...

Attack ads work in the short term. I expect it to start coming back up in the next few weeks.

[NatBurner]

23. they're pumping up the "likely voter" meme this week

whatever the fuck that means

but to answer the question? no

hell no, to be exact

[Motown_Johnny]

24. More like the spread was always 5-6 and the +/- 4 MOE makes a 9 point swing meaningless

[Teaser]

28. not meaningless

That margin of error was only non-significant for tests with 95% confidence (alpha =5%).
For 90% confidence, it was, indeed, a significant margin.

[Bill McBlueState]

42. or partially meaningless and partially real

It's unlikely than 9 points is entirely a statistical fluctuation, but it could be a real 3-4 point swing with the rest due to randomness.

In any case, leading statistics show that 95% of the population and 99% of MSM pundits fail to appreciate a nuanced statistical argument. :)

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Yes, because I think the bump he received after his trip was temporary.

It was a boost comparable to what you see after a convention, where a candidate jumps almost 10-points, but can't be sustained. This trip put his name out there and it isn't a surprise people said "Obama" with how much news he was receiving. The fact the bump wasn't prolonged doesn't mean much...it was something I hoped wouldn't happen, but knew could.

[Doremus]

29. Well, let's see .... should I believe the M$M polls or my own eyes?

Neck and neck? Like freaking hell!

[Bill McBlueState]

43. Which do you think is more likely to be a random sample of voters?

The people in your pictures, or the people Gallup called?

[Heather MC]

31. THEY ARE LYING!!!

Notice how everytime Obama gets a "bump" in the polls it's quickly pulled down.
Who are they polling? I am a registered Voter I have never received a call, anyone else never recieved a call.

The only way to combat this is to get out and vote in such large numbers they can't cheat
Remember in Michigan they threw 30,000 votes in the Garbage because they were a write in vote.
And that was on the Democratic Side. These people will stop at nothing.

[Hoof Hearted]

32. are you seeking honest answers or affirmation?

There are legitimate reasons for results such as these in August, with these two candidates. It DOES NOT mean these numbers will hold, so I ask......... are you seeking honest answers or affirmation?

[Bill McBlueState]

44. good question

It's more helpful to talk about actual reasons the polls are behaving the way they do. It allows us to get some perspective as to what trends are worth worrying about and what trends can be ignored.

But it's a lot easier to scream about a huge, well-maintained conspiracy to blatantly manipulate the numbers.

[Imagevision]

33. M$M is owned by the repugs so they'll give you their news...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

34. Sure. Why not?

Losing nine points is really losing 4.5 points in absolute terms.

Does anyone believe Obama could have lost 4.5 points in a week coming off the substantial bounce of the foreign trip? It would be surprising if he didn't.

You could rephrase the question as, "Does anybody think Obama really lost 1 point in nine days?" He was at 45 on the 23rd, and 44 on the 31st.

The movement in tracking polls is mostly due to people with no particular opinion of anything. Obama and McCain are swapping the same 5% back and forth, and that 5% could just as easily call themselves undecided... for all we know they are just naming the last guy they saw an ad for.

[AlinPA]

35. The media controls everything in politics. They will decide what the "polls say" and

will make or break the candidates. They are in complete synchronization now in the anti-Obama mode.

[Clear Blue Sky]

36. The media want a horse race. The polls are for them to generate news.

[nc4bo]

37. Nope. One more thing..

There was a post about an article that people identifying themselves as Dems is slipping southways.

I am having trouble with that one too unless of course all that purging of the rolls has something to do with it.

[tedoll78]

38. Wouldn't be surprised.

I see too many DUers overestimating the intellectual power of an average American voter. Kinda like in 2004.
So McCain is "the worst ever?"
So this time "Americans have finally had enough?"

We've heard this before, and were left wondering what the hell happened.

Obama needs to grow a pair and fight back; this was my #1 concern about nominating him - I was afraid that he'd be unwilling for fight for this.

Clever retorts and idealisms about clean campaigning may play well to those who are already voting for him, but they do nothing for fifth-grade-reading-level Joe Swingvoter.

The ad hominem slingers around here may call me a nervous nelly, but I say I'm a cynic.. or a realist. Either way, it's better than being a Pollyanna.

[TexasObserver]

39. No, they're absurd. No one who has an opinion is changing it.

Anyone who has an opinion NOW on who they will vote for president in November is not going to change their mind from day to day or week to week. That is nuts.

If we know those 85% are not really changing their minds, the logical conclusion is: Polls really do have a margin of error of + or - 4 points.

Add the way some pollsters work to get a result that will make their (Gallup's) clients (USAToday) happy, and it is ripe for obfuscation.

The people who will decide the election are not paying attention to any of this right now.

[RedShoes]

40. Nope. I think Gallup skewed their poll pool to suggest it for news ratings. nt

[geek tragedy]

41. He lost five points, and McLame gained four.

And, yes, I believe it.

[Phx_Dem]

45. Me neither.

Pollster still has him 5 points up. Survey USA's list of most accurate pollsters shows Gallup pretty far down the list; ranking 32 out of 41. Survey USA, Zogby, Quinnipac, PPP, Rassmussen are all above Gallup -- way above.

For whatever it's worth.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/

[sourmilk]

47. I can believe it. Polls are pretty volatile this time of year.

I don't see why anyone trust any of them before the Convention, anyway.

Still. Obama got no particular bump from the European tour, and some bad press last week. The playing of the race card will do worse for him, I fear.

[dragonball2008]

52. no

worry