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Rasmussen, 8/2: Obama 44%, McCain 43% - "Number of Democrats in US Declines in July"

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highplainsdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 09:29 AM
Original message
Rasmussen, 8/2: Obama 44%, McCain 43% - "Number of Democrats in US Declines in July"
Edited on Sat Aug-02-08 09:33 AM by highplainsdem
Two Rasmussen links/articles, the first today's tracking poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...

Saturday, August 02, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that the race for the White House has become breathtakingly close. Barack Obama attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, its Obama 47% and McCain 46%. While the race has been very close for much of the past few weeks, McCain has never held the lead for even a single day in the two weeks since Obama clinched the nomination (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

-snip-

New data released today shows that the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell in July. While Obamas party still enjoys a big advantage over the GOP, the gap between the parties is now the smallest that it has been since January. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (its free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain earns positive reviews from 86% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 82% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 60% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 50%.

Cindy McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of American voters, Michelle Obama by 46%. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Premium Members can also visit the Daily Snapshot for additional information.

-snip-





And the article on the number of Democrats declining:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...

Saturday, August 02, 2008

During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points to 39.2%. Thats the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41% (see history from January 2004 to present).

While the number of Democrats declined, there was virtually no change in the number of Republicans. In July, 31.6% said they were Republicans, the fourth straight month that number has been below 31.4% and 31.6%.

The Democrats now have a 7.6 percentage point advantage over the Republicans, down from a 9.5 percentage point advantage in June and 10.1 percentage points in May.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002.

Among men, 34% are Democrats, 33% Republican. Forty-four percent (44%) of women are Democrats, and just 30% claim the GOP as their party.

-snip-

In January and February, while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were in the early stages of the battle for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the number of Americans who considered themselves to be Democrats surged to record highs.

In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points.

In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November.

-snip-



So we still have more of an advantage over the Republicans in party identification than we had in November of 2006.
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Kahuna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
1. Seems those repukes from "Operation Chaos" are returning to their own..nt
:shrug:
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 09:52 AM
Response to Original message
2. Damn..I hope the people Obama campaign register don't end up voting for McCain. nt
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Getting them to the polls is the bigger problem
Edited on Sat Aug-02-08 09:57 AM by Jake3463
The people they are registering are people who baring something crazy would vote democratic (with exceptions and voter registration has to be non-partisan, you can't throw out the other parties voter reg forms, so there are GOP people registering as well)

Getting a first time voter to actually vote is harder than getting them to fill out a form at an event.
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. True. nt
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
3. a 2% fall is within the MOE
Statistics is all about MOE and Confidence Intervals...and I'd like to see their sampling methodology.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 10:01 AM
Response to Original message
5. Any time campaigns get nasty, Independent-minded voters are going to pull back.
What this tells me is that Indies are leaning Dem (note that the Republican #'s didn't change)
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nc4bo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 10:02 AM
Response to Original message
6. hmmmmmmm.
:tinfoilhat: <--- time to put my hat on.
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kitfalbo Donating Member (237 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-02-08 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
7. Purge
Registered voter purge...
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