McCain's Growing Arizona Problem (UpdateIV) McCain's number plummets 10 points

[grantcart]

I. Arizona is in play.

Here is the current polling:

. . . . . . .MCCAIN . . . OBAMA. . . NADER. . . UNCOMMITTED
July 25-30 . . 43%. . . . .38%. . . . 3%. . . . . . 16%

May 2008 . . . 53 . . . . .38 . . . . NA. . . . . . 9

May 2007 . . . 53 . . . . .36 . . . . NA. . . . . . 11


The first time looking at the AZ polls I saw polls from BCP (associated with the better known Rocky Mountain Polls) and was worried that they might be a 'left leaning' pollster and so tried to dig into their background.

Interestingly they do a lot of work for public opinion for both government and private enterprise and don't normally work for campaigns at all. They go back thirty years and Mr. Haynes served for sixteen years as President of the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce. (Coincidentally Mr. Andrew McCain has recently been appointed Chairman of the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, effective this month, this coming from his highly successful tenure as Bank Asset Magician - made them disappear without a trace.)

So these pollsters do not have a 'left wing' bias.

I was so curious that I called them and asked them if they were surprised by the poll (the previous one) that indicated that McCain had a problem in Arizona. They responded that they had been predicting to their clients that AZ was on the verge of going blue and that if the candidate wansn't McCain that the Democrats had an excellent chance to win. This is accounted to in large part to the explosive (3%+) annual growth occurring in Arizona, which with Nevada, make up the two fastest growing states in the country.

This poll is only Maricopa County (60% and traditionally Republican) but it is still very significant.

They have 3 reasons for the significant effect

1) McCain has lost his support among Democrats that used to support him. Nader is drawing his support from McCain and Independents and only one in ten of his supporters are Democrats.

2) McCain has lost 22 points among men and now only has a 4 point lead

3) Hispanics have abandoned McCain and support Obama - almost in the same numbers AA do.

FAVORITE SON McCAIN STRENGTH IN ARIZONA SHRINKS. OBAMA GAINS AMONG MEN, DEMOCRATS AND LATINOS.

http://www.brcpolls.com/08/RMP%202008-III-01.pdf

In Arizona, the contest for President of the UnitedStates between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain could prove to be a dilly and is most likely to be decided by which candidate carries Maricopa county where nearly six out of ten Arizona voters reside and which is generally conceded to be the heartland of Republican strength in the state. Yet here in Senator McCain’s back yard, his lead which was a comfortable 15 to 17 points for most of last and this year, has shrunk significantly.

In late July, a survey of 401 voters in Arizona’s most populous county, McCain’s lead over Obama has narrowed to within five points ( 43% for McCain to 38% for Obama). As recently as May of this year, McCain led by 53 to 38 percent. Additional ly, among voters still on the fence, but who admit they are “leaning” toward one of the other, the division is similar. McCain’s narrowing lead traces not to any sudden up-swelling in support for Obama, whose support has hovered around 38 percent for the past year and remains at that level today. Rather, it traces to a decline in support of McCain, especially among men, registered Independents and Latinos. Simultaneously, the proportion of voters who are uncommitted rose to 16 percent from only nine this May and Ralph Nader drew a small but important three percent, mostly from McCain.

The most obvious explanation for the tightening up of the race is that for the first time in any McCain race we can recollect, the usual 20 to 30 percent of Democrats who defect to McCain are now staying home. Today, only nine percent of Democrats are crossing over to McCain while eleven percent of Republicans are crossing over to Obama. And even if Ralph Nader plays only a small role in this election (he attracts only three percent of voters) it may be an important role because half of those voters are Republicans, 40 percent are Independents and only one in ten are Democrats.

It also appears that Obama is making some of his most important inroads within the ranks of male voters. For example, in May of 2007 in Arizona, Obama trailed McCain by a whopping 23 points among men. That gap actually rose to 26 percent by May of 2008 but today McCain’s lead among men has collapsed to only four points. Obama’s trip to Europe and the mid-east may have played a significant factor in giving male voters more comfort with Obama’s candidacy and his capacity to relate to and deal with world leaders.

Finally, even though Latino voters have in the past displayed a tendency to favor Democratic candidates, John McCain has long been able to attract from a quarter to a third of their vote. This appears not to be the case today. Seventy- nine percent of Latinos in this survey say they will vote for Barack Obama while McCain’s share registers at only nine percent.

Other Points for Review

II. McCain has a poor showing in the Arizona Primary

Although largely ignored by the Media McCain struggled in the Arizona Primary where he was the only one of the main candidates not achieve 50% in his home state and had the lowest plurality over the second place candidate, despite the fact that the Democratic Primaries had a much more contentious primary battle.

Obama won Illinois with 65%

Clinton won New York with 57%

McCain won Arizona with only 47%

Obama's advantage over Clinton was 32% in Illinois and Clinton had a 17% advantage over Obama in New York, while McCain managed to beat Romney by only 13 points in his home state.

III. Obama raises as much money as McCain in Arizona and the McCain campaign calls Arizona a 'Swing State'

details here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6446699

[NYC_SKP]

1. You mean this drop"

I love visuals:



:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

[grantcart]

2. I do too and the latest poll isn't factored into this either

[NYC_SKP]

Sweet...all the more to savor. nt

[FrenchieCat]

3. Will the media ask "why is McCain losing ground in his home state?"

doubt it.

[grantcart]

6. well we have to keep banging the drum and somebody in

Huffington Post picks it up and it drifts up.


Give it a week lol.

[panader0]

4. Just wait til my Obama t-shirt arrives.

I'll wear it all the time. I talk all the time to my fellow (usually red-neck) construction workers about politics until they're almost sick of me. I have a good feeling about Arizona. Even in this army town I have seen only one mccane sticker.

[grantcart]

7. I think most of the people have talked their neighbors blue lol

I got em asking questions now.

[AZBlue]

15. I'm anxiously awaiting my yard signs and stickers.

I've only seen on McCain sticker too - and shockingly, it was on the car of an Iraq war vet, of all people.

[autorank]

5. k*r Thanks. This is trending in a big way.

I was looking for a decent poll of AZ last night and couldn't find it.

Down to a 4 point lead from 22 points for men. That's great news.

I've thought that Napolitano would be a good tactical choice for VP. Don't know much about her
politics but she's had a very high approval rating. If that's still there and she's a good
choice on merits, what a coup.

The minute McCain goes even or drops behind Obama in Arizona is the moment the bottom starts to
fall out. Gallup etc., the corporate polls, won't be able to prop him up anymore. It would be
too outrageous. The corporate polls have already taken a risk to say that Obama's bene hurt
by the European trip. Nonsense.

Thanks

[Cha]

8. Hey maybe they don't like jealous, lying,

fascist politicains in AZ! :think:

[grantcart]

10. maybe they know him too well lol

[Cha]

11. Yeah, they know him too well and the mainstream media

won't be able to brainwash Arizonans.

[AZBlue]

16. EXACTLY!

I'm surprised he's doing as well as he is in Arizona.

[Cha]

9. Rec'd..this deserves more

viewing.

[GoldenOldie]

13. Arizonans are just truly learning about the real John McCain

As a long time Arizonan (1958), married to a 4th generation Arizonan, with both of us employed by the largest military installation in Arizona, John McCain has received the support of the active duty military and the thousands of retired military because of his VietNam POW status. John McCain only gained political status in Arizona due to Cindy's father and Sen. Goldwater's backing ( which he deeply regretted in later years). Many Zoni's only knowledge of John McCain, was the little they heard from the hearings on the Keating Scandal.
Arizona is the home of several military installations, with the largest at Fort Huachuca, the Intelligence Command. The military, military retiree's, their families and the thousands of civilians who work and play beside these military, are recently learning that their own Rep, a former POW, who receives a 100% military disability himself yet is still able to collect a full paycheck from the taxpayers for his Senate seat, yet he has denied/voted against them, on each and every bill that would give them some dignity and support for medical care, education, etc., etc., etc. In fact John McCain hasn't even reported for work for several months to represent his constituents, because he has been to busy campaigning for POTUS.

This 2008 Campaign has allowed Arizona voters to get a really good look at what they have been sending to Washington and they ain't none to happy. Sen Kyl is the opposite bookend of McCain.......ain't we lucky???

[Cha]

19. Thanks for your post..Arizona

is beautiful and it deserves the best not the worst in representation.

[StarfishParable]

12. McCain's Growing Arizona Problem

I am a Californian,  who for extended business reasons,  has
been living in SW Missouri for almost three years.  I cannot
tell you how great it was to line up Monday night with about a
thousand other progressives to get tickets to Obama's speech
in Springfield.  And it seems like the Obama machine is
putting up a good number of offices here. 

That being said, I think a key strategy not just here in MO
but also Arizona is both voter registration and an election
day strategy to get the vote out.  

My impression of  Arizona, limited to many business trips and
sports trips to the Phoenix/Scottsdale area, has been that
it's a pretty affluent and staunch Republican bastion. I think
Janet Napolitano has done a great job.   I hope they can find
enough independents, college students and Latinos to skew the
vote towards Obama.   

[grantcart]

21. thanks and welcome to DU

[TexasObserver]

14. Why is McCain losing ground in his home state?

MSM, where is that pointed question?

[AZBlue]

17. Paging Sen. Obama: please open your Arizona office soon!

You know I LOVE these threads - keep 'em coming! :D
K&R

[grantcart]

24. I don't know about the offices but there are events happening there already

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/azeventsmap

[AZBlue]

31. LOTS of events!

Which is great - it's nice to meet fellow supporters. But I'm puzzled, with this much support in AZ and McCain on the brink of being toppled, why he hasn't opened an office yet. I realize it takes cash and probably in some states where there is such a large grassroots effort it's ok to coast for a while without an office. But, pushing way ahead of McCain in AZ would send such a strong message to the rest of the nation!

Ah well...as you can see patience is not one my virtues, LOL, but he's worth the wait.

[darius15]

18. I def agree that if this wasn't McCain's home state, it would be real close

... Usually, a home state advantage in the Pres. Election constitutes about 5-6 extra percent. So if McCain is only up by around 6 percent in his home state, this means that if it wasnt a home state, it would be very close.

In 2012, I wouldnt be surprised if the Dems won AZ.

[Michigan-Arizona]

20. Seen my first JM bumper sticker today in Arizona

I was on I-19 today heading down to Mexico & seen my very first JM bumper sticker. I was a passenger in the car so I was able to act like I was gagging really bad. The people in the bumper sticker car just looked at me kind of strange but i felt good doing it.

[grantcart]

22. lol

[grantcart]

23. thanks and welcome to DU

[chitty]

25. I have yet to see a McCain bumpersticker

in the Phoenix area.

Although some douche bag has a McCain mini blimp flying over his house on 43rd Ave just south of Bell Rd.

[Phx_Dem]

29. Ditto.

I live wihtin a mile or so of the McNasty's and I have never seen one. Nor have I seen a yard sign -- although I pass one for Obama every day on my way home from work.

I was driving to work a few weeks ago and a car came up next to me in the lane to the left of me. The driver slowed down and rolled her window down. I had my radio blaring, but I quickly turned it down thinking she was going to tell me I was dragging a pedestrian from my bumper or something. I turned and looked at her to hear what she had to say, and she started pumping her arms in the air and hooting and hollaring "WOO HOO!", then pretty quickly sped up as she was in the fast lane and traffic was piling up behind her. I thought, "what was THAT all about? Is she crazy?" About 2 minutes later it dawned on me that she was referencing my Obama bumper sticker and I laughed all the way to work.

[ShadowLiberal]

26. Not much of an Obama boost, just McCain backers reconsidering their picks

[Phx_Dem]

27. BAWAHAHAHAHAHAH!

Maricopa County is the county of Phoenix, McCain's home city and the capital of the state. If he can't win his home city, he can't win the state. Tucson, the second largest city is pretty liberal -- especially compared to conservative Phoenix.

This is very exciting. As a native Phoenician, the thought that we might actually be pulling our collective heads out of our asses for a change, after electing so many embarrassing embiciles (Ev Mecham and Fif Symington to name two), for which I lay complete blame at the feet of the Republicans. Embarrassing McNasty in his home state/city, where he and his bimbo wife think they rule the roost, would make me weep with joy.

[grantcart]

33. me too

[yardwork]

28. I met some people from Arizona recently. Jewish.

They were planning to vote for McCain. Said all their family members were, too.

[napi21]

30. I heard a caller on one of the Dem talk radio shows this AM who

was from Az. He said "YEAH, it's tru McCain hasn't done any earmarks furing his entire time in the Denate! He hasn't done a DAMN THING FOR AZ! This guy was really upset with him for doing a LOT of talking but absolutely NOTHING for his home state! Like 'em or not, some earmarks are actually good!

[mrreowwr_kittty]

34. Driving on the roads around here demonstrates that fact. nt

[Imagevision]

32. Obama is currently up by 3 points in Arizona