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What's up with CNN's strange treatment of New Mexico on their electoral map?

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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 12:09 PM
Original message
What's up with CNN's strange treatment of New Mexico on their electoral map?
CNN shows New Mexico as "lean McCain".
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/in...

This despite these simple facts:

-Democrats have a large registration lead in NM

-New Mexico voted Dem in three of the last four elections with Bush barely ekeing out a victory by a few thousand votes in 2004

-Obama has had the lead in 5 of the the last seven polls with one tie and only one poll back in April showing a McCain lead. Obama's polling average lead is over 5 points

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com /

But instead of a toss-up (at minimum) CNN deceptively lists NM as "lean McCain". Strange stuff. I can only guess they are giving him some kind of neighboring state edge as offsetting polls, trends, and voting history.

I don't disagree with much of the rest of their map except for a few quibbles: IA, NH, and MI are probably more likely "lean Obama" than toss up, MT is a toss up, and ND more of a "lean McCain" than a "solid".
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Bill McBlueState Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
1. I wouldn't pay much attention to this map
When they say their estimate is based on "several factors, including polling, voting trends, and ad spending," I read that as...

"We're tinkering quite a bit with the results so we can maintain the illusion of a close race."
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 12:23 PM
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2. The MSM is trying to maintain the illusion of the race being closer than it is
As of right now of course.
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dbonds Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 12:34 PM
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3. When they steal it in Nov it has to be believable.
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