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The Daily Widget – Wednesday, July 23 – Obama 344, McCain 194 – Bizarro Map (Without Rasmussen)

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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:50 AM
Original message
The Daily Widget – Wednesday, July 23 – Obama 344, McCain 194 – Bizarro Map (Without Rasmussen)



Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map, Links and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. TIDBITS – Bizarro Map (Without Rasmussen)

I’ve been wondering for a while now if Rasmussen had a server crash last month and restored their data from a 2004 backup. Ohio, red? Strong red, no less? They’ve gotta be yanking our chains. Seriously.

So today I yank back. What would an electoral map look like completely free of Rasmussen data? Would Obama’s strategy be the same without Rasmussen’s data?

Here is the Bizarro Map (no Rasmussen data) followed below by today’s map with Rasmussen data:






First, only four states are flipped: Ohio, Virginia, Montana and Nevada. And second, the Central-South (away from the east coast) is out of play. Rasmussen gives us the misperception that Texas and the entire South are in play.

The difference in electoral votes between the two maps is only 20 total; the map without Rasmussen data would show Obama leading by 20 more electoral votes. Not a big deal, considering the big picture.

What is a big deal, however, is the difference in pink states. Rasmussen shows many red states as pink, or close races, while the Bizarro map shows a solid, strong set of red states. I’m more inclined to believe the Bizarro map than the normal map showing Rasmussen data.

Obama could save valuable time and resources by concentrating primarily in these areas:

Midwest: Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio
Southeast: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
Northeast: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Maine
West: Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Montana


* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS

Is it a lolpoll? Rasmussen tells us that Ohio, instead of being Weak Blue, is actually Strong Red. After averaging it with yesterday’s Public Policy Polling release showing Obama leading by 8 in Ohio, the state becomes Lean Red (Obama 45, McCain 46). Florida also switches back from Lean Blue to Lean Red. Colorado and New Hampshire remain in the Lean Blue category.


Colorado Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 7/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 47 (American Research Group, 7/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 47, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 7/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 42, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 7/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *


7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP, LINKS AND SOURCES





Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du
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fight4my3sons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 07:04 AM
Response to Original message
1. Good morning, phrigndumass!
lil math dude is fascinated by your bizzaro map - he's very happy to see us dark blue again. :)
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 07:12 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. In a world without Rasmussen ...
we're all dark blue :D

(except for the red ones, lol)

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 07:29 AM
Response to Original message
3. In case you're wondering if Electoral-Vote.com is biased in any way ...
Edited on Wed Jul-23-08 07:32 AM by phrigndumass
News from the Votemaster

Barack Obama took a huge gamble going abroad and acting like he was already President, meeting heads of state for photo ops and the like. ...


http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul22.h...

(emphasis mine)


On edit: Two Ohio polls were released one day apart. Public Policy Polling shows Obama leading by 8, and Rasmussen shows McCain leading by 10 (by 6 without leaners). Did Electoral-Vote.com average the two? No. They ignored the PPP poll altogether, just like they ignored the last Florida poll showing Obama with a slight lead.

:rant:
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 08:13 AM
Response to Original message
4. Off to work kick
Have a good day
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RNdaSilva Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 08:21 AM
Response to Original message
5. Checking in...
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. (pssst ... hi RN!)
:hi:
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 08:56 AM
Response to Original message
6. Good Morning Mr. phrigndumass!
Edited on Wed Jul-23-08 08:57 AM by jefferson_dem
Thanks for my widget fix.

I was pleased to see a post by Bowers at OpenLeft that echos your findings - Barack's firewall (Kerry states plus CO, IA, and NM = 273 EVs) is holding strong. http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7092

(MS)NBC will have new national #s out at 6:30 today. Should be interesting.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. ^ ^ Heads up ... New national numbers this evening from MSNBC
Thanks for sharing that info, and also for the link to Chris Bowers' diary at OpenLeft. I wouldn't have been aware of either one, lol

:hi:
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. MSNBC National Poll numbers
Head-to-head:
Obama - 47% ... (+6)
McCain - 41%

Open Field:
Obama - 48% ... (+13)
McCain - 35%
Nader - 5%
Barr - 2%
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
7. could you provide an update of the 6 column chart that shows degree of
support (strong Obama/weak Obama/leaning Obama etc)


Texas is interesting.


With 100,000 Katrina migrants, an enthusiastic AA turnout, a turning of the Hispanic vote from red to blue and an active voter registration at the Universities - could it be closer - could Rasmussen be right that it may get closer and be in play.


It is interesting that DUers from Texas seem so enthusiastic and positive.


I also wonder if there isn't a factor of "seller's remorse" people who supported Bush but were embarassed at having sent the worst President in history from their state now trying to compenstate for what they did?
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:04 PM
Response to Reply #7
16. Here is the updated 6-column chart
Let's refer to this as the "EV 6-column widget" :D



Note: This chart includes the polls released since this morning.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. see we need to firm up PA/VA/OH/IN and NC

I think Kaine will have the strongest impact

Also his fluent Spanish will have a big impact on FL
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. Yes! Southeast Coast and Industrial Midwest
And Guam. We might win by seven votes in Guam. :P
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Kaleko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 12:26 PM
Response to Original message
8. Recommended
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. Thanks Kaleko!
:P ppbbffft! :hi:
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Greyskye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
9. Just keeps getting better

:kick: and R
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Thanks Greyskye
:hi:
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 03:45 PM
Response to Original message
10. kick
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 05:56 PM
Response to Original message
15. Dewey got into my account again and posted another article
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Yer killin me, lol
:thumbsup:
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:31 PM
Response to Original message
19. Look at the numbers behind the numbers on this new poll
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080723_...

Question 16

McCain drops to 35% when 3rd party candidates are included - 13 advantage for Obama and 9 points undecided


Question 20a

55% of the people are still worried about the risk of Obama.

He needs to calm that worry and we are talking landslide - he doesn't and we are on a cliff hanger.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. Good news, Bad news :)
McCain drops to 35% and Obama leads by freakin' 13 points with Nader and Barr!

It's strange how Nader is coming out with 5% compared to Barr's 2% nationwide.

I believe a small chunk of that worried 55% bunch are experiencing some form of "symbolic racism" ... probably something utterly silly like "Is he a muslim or not" that gets stuck in the smallest of brains.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. Now I think we have to get out of the box and see this clearly

Let's leave the race part aside for a minute.


Senator Obama is a first term Senator who was not a Governor or even a Congressman.

No one had even heard of him more than 4 years ago.

While he is well known for early opposition to the war - what really major piece of legislation has he championed (there are some good ones but the average person is not awar of them).

So it is actually logical that people who are not intimately involved have some reservations.


But these are not hard negatives and Obama will have no problem getting people to calm down. I see this as good news because it is a problem that can be handled. It can be handled by ads but even better with canvassing.

I see it when I go door to door - even among Democrats.


I have a neighbor who watches the TV and makes notes and then comes out and asks me questions when we walk our dogs - she is an elderly marine widow.


Today she said that she was a little worried about Obama - but I asked her about McCain and she said (again) that she would never ever vote for him. I gave her a little stump speech and she was good to go.


In other words its better that people agree with Obama but are a little nervous than they feel comfortable but disagree with his policies. Its much easier to move people emotionally and increase their comfort level than it is to argue with them on policy.

So I see this as good news - a negative that can be easily overcome - especially by volunteers doing canvassing.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Good thoughts. I don't have a compass for this because I live in Illinois
Barack Obama has been a part of our lives for quite a while now.

After reading your reply, I was trying to remember how I felt about Obama a few years back when he was still a relative unknown statewide here in Illinois. It was his speech at the 2004 Convention that sealed the deal with me for his U.S. Senate candidacy.

And when he announced his candidacy for President, I was torn at first because I really wanted to see Dick Durbin give it a shot (I still do). The talk around Springfield, Illinois, before Barack Obama announced his candidacy was "OMG, can you believe he has the gall to reserve the Old State Capitol Plaza to announce his candidacy?! That's where Lincoln began his run! Who does he think he is?!" (btw, literally everything is about Abraham Lincoln around here, and anybody who dared to do such a thing would receive the same public scorn.)

I remembered his 2004 Convention speech and went to his announcement. It was freakin' COLD outside, wind chills below -30 degrees. About a thousand people squeezed into the plaza to hear him give yet another knockout speech. I was won over again.

It may take one of those "instances" where people have a chance to experience first-hand what Obama is all about to win them over. But some folks approach the idea with a very closed mind, making such an experience impossible for them.
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Kaleko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
25. Rasmussen? Phhhhttt. Ignored!


And kicked :kick: in the shinola.

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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Bonus!
Flerbertz and Birdie, all in one post :rofl:

If this were a pinball game, you'd be hearing a lot of bells and clicks right now. It might even give you your quarter back. :D
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Kaleko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #26
28. Good thinking, phrig.
Sleep tight, cuz tomorrow, Obama will rock the whole of Germany
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 09:21 PM
Response to Original message
27. The electoral college map is freakin' spectacular.
Obama is "softening up" the south.

:thumbsup:
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-23-08 11:11 PM
Response to Original message
29. I wonder if the NYT has been peeking at some of our threads?
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