Charlie Cook: "GOP is Losing Ground" (Senate Repubs in trouble...)

[npincus]

:rofl: Buh-bye...


http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080716_3253.php

In the Senate races, the outlook for the GOP is bad and getting worse. Few Republicans think that they have any real hope of holding retiring Sen. John Warner's seat in Virginia. Former Gov. Mark Warner, who is a Democrat, appears to have a lock on that contest, which The Cook Political Report rates as "Likely Democratic." In New Mexico, where Republican Sen. Pete Domenici is retiring, GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is the underdog, trailing Democratic Rep. Tom Udall in a contest that we moved this week from the "Toss-Up" column to "Leans Democratic."

In Oregon, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith faces an increasingly difficult challenge from Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. The Cook Political Report this week shifted that race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up." The GOP's problem isn't so much that Merkley is an especially formidable challenger; it's just that the political climate has effectively erased the natural advantages that Smith brings to the race.

Smith's contest joins five others involving Republican-held seats that we had already rated as "Toss-Ups"--those of incumbents Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Ted Stevens of Alaska, and appointed Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, as well as the open seat in Colorado where Wayne Allard is retiring. Sununu's situation is looking increasingly ominous; Coleman's stock has risen, although not quite enough to warrant a move to the "Leans Republican" category.

In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole's challenge from Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan is getting increasingly competitive, warranting a shift from the "Likely Republican" column, effectively a watch list, to "Leans Republican," signaling that the outcome is now in doubt. This is not yet a "Toss-Up" and may not get there, but it is now a real race. Dole joins GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, whose contest has been in the "Leans Republican" column since April 2007.

Democrats have targeted Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky in a race that we have now moved from the "Solid Republican" category to "Likely Republican." Even though McConnell has raised an impressive $15.2 million for the cycle and is expected to run a flawless campaign, wealthy Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford has made a $2.5 million down payment on his race, shifting the contest to the watch list.

[yourout]

1. I vow to have a beer for every Senate seat we switch in Nov.

Hopefully I have a nice little hangover.

[Danger Mouse]

12. I'm going to get so trashed that night...

[Quixote1818]

15. Tom Udall is up by 20 points here in New Mexico. Republicans don't even want to

spend money on Pierce. They see that race as already lost.

[Lugnut]

22. I'll join you.

We should get able to get a nice buzz on.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. Personally, I hope we win all these seats

McConnell is a particularly odious person, and it would be great if he no longer walked the halls of Congress.

[GalleryGod]

3. Charlie Cook is Da' Man in this Department ! Can you utter out loud the term

TSUNAMI !!!!

[yourout]

4. I hope this "Tsunami" drowns the Pukes for at least a generation.

[saltpoint]

5. Those seats? We'll take them all.

Red to blue. All of them.

And in the bargain, we'd be done with some notably horrible Republican Senators.

[Vinca]

6. I definitely think Shaheen will take Sununu's seat in NH. nt

[rox63]

7. I have my doubts that Allen (D) can defeat Collins (R) in Maine

Even though I'd love to see that seat go blue. But I agree that Shaheen is looking likely to beat Su-no-no.

[Vinca]

10. Agreed. Collins votes just enough against the Repub. maniacs

to continue to make her electable. We'll keep our fingers crossed though.

[rox63]

17. I wish kinda wish Olympia Snowe would switch to Dem

She votes more toward the Dem POV than Collins ever has.

[moose65]

8. Looks good for us

I'd say that Warner in Virginia, Shaheen in NH, and Udall in NM are looking really really good. Udall in Colorado, Merkley in OR, and Begich in Alaska look pretty good. Although I would love to kick Liddy Dole to the curb, that one is going to be a struggle. An Obama landslide could give us a few surprises, too!

[berni_mccoy]

9. Oh Man, That would be AWESOME if they took out McConnell!

[Colobo]

11. They'll get whooped mercilessly.

[AwakeAtLast]

13. K & R for the thread title alone

:kick:


:D

[barack the house]

14. Keep placing local classfied ads with heartfelt pleas for Dem senators and house seats.

[Diamonique]

16. I would love to see McConnell ousted.

k&r

[starroute]

18. When the GOP can't win them they steal them

And the states named are thus the likeliest targets for voter suppression and election fraud. We'd best be thinking now about how to protect the integrity of the vote against every imaginable assault.

[scarletwoman]

19. k&r for a lovely vision of the future. (nt)

[Labors of Hercules]

20. I hope NC's Kay Hagen can pull it out...

I'll be campaigning my ass off for her.

[WillyT]

21. Big K & R !!!

:woohoo::kick::woohoo: