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Charlie Cook: "GOP is Losing Ground" (Senate Repubs in trouble...)

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npincus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 06:08 AM
Original message
Charlie Cook: "GOP is Losing Ground" (Senate Repubs in trouble...)
:rofl: Buh-bye...


http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080716_3...

In the Senate races, the outlook for the GOP is bad and getting worse. Few Republicans think that they have any real hope of holding retiring Sen. John Warner's seat in Virginia. Former Gov. Mark Warner, who is a Democrat, appears to have a lock on that contest, which The Cook Political Report rates as "Likely Democratic." In New Mexico, where Republican Sen. Pete Domenici is retiring, GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is the underdog, trailing Democratic Rep. Tom Udall in a contest that we moved this week from the "Toss-Up" column to "Leans Democratic."

In Oregon, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith faces an increasingly difficult challenge from Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. The Cook Political Report this week shifted that race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up." The GOP's problem isn't so much that Merkley is an especially formidable challenger; it's just that the political climate has effectively erased the natural advantages that Smith brings to the race.

Smith's contest joins five others involving Republican-held seats that we had already rated as "Toss-Ups"--those of incumbents Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Ted Stevens of Alaska, and appointed Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, as well as the open seat in Colorado where Wayne Allard is retiring. Sununu's situation is looking increasingly ominous; Coleman's stock has risen, although not quite enough to warrant a move to the "Leans Republican" category.

In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole's challenge from Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan is getting increasingly competitive, warranting a shift from the "Likely Republican" column, effectively a watch list, to "Leans Republican," signaling that the outcome is now in doubt. This is not yet a "Toss-Up" and may not get there, but it is now a real race. Dole joins GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, whose contest has been in the "Leans Republican" column since April 2007.

Democrats have targeted Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky in a race that we have now moved from the "Solid Republican" category to "Likely Republican." Even though McConnell has raised an impressive $15.2 million for the cycle and is expected to run a flawless campaign, wealthy Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford has made a $2.5 million down payment on his race, shifting the contest to the watch list.

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yourout Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 06:16 AM
Response to Original message
1. I vow to have a beer for every Senate seat we switch in Nov.
Hopefully I have a nice little hangover.
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Danger Mouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #1
12. I'm going to get so trashed that night...
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #1
15. Tom Udall is up by 20 points here in New Mexico. Republicans don't even want to
spend money on Pierce. They see that race as already lost.
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Lugnut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #1
22. I'll join you.
We should get able to get a nice buzz on.
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 06:18 AM
Response to Original message
2. Personally, I hope we win all these seats
McConnell is a particularly odious person, and it would be great if he no longer walked the halls of Congress.
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GalleryGod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 06:43 AM
Response to Original message
3. Charlie Cook is Da' Man in this Department ! Can you utter out loud the term
TSUNAMI !!!!
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yourout Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 06:53 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. I hope this "Tsunami" drowns the Pukes for at least a generation.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 07:39 AM
Response to Original message
5. Those seats? We'll take them all.
Red to blue. All of them.

And in the bargain, we'd be done with some notably horrible Republican Senators.

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Vinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 08:04 AM
Response to Original message
6. I definitely think Shaheen will take Sununu's seat in NH. nt
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rox63 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. I have my doubts that Allen (D) can defeat Collins (R) in Maine
Edited on Sun Jul-20-08 08:20 AM by rox63
Even though I'd love to see that seat go blue. But I agree that Shaheen is looking likely to beat Su-no-no.
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Vinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. Agreed. Collins votes just enough against the Repub. maniacs
to continue to make her electable. We'll keep our fingers crossed though.
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rox63 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #10
17. I wish kinda wish Olympia Snowe would switch to Dem
She votes more toward the Dem POV than Collins ever has.
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moose65 Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 08:32 AM
Response to Original message
8. Looks good for us
I'd say that Warner in Virginia, Shaheen in NH, and Udall in NM are looking really really good. Udall in Colorado, Merkley in OR, and Begich in Alaska look pretty good. Although I would love to kick Liddy Dole to the curb, that one is going to be a struggle. An Obama landslide could give us a few surprises, too!
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 08:38 AM
Response to Original message
9. Oh Man, That would be AWESOME if they took out McConnell!
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
11. They'll get whooped mercilessly.
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AwakeAtLast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
13. K & R for the thread title alone
:kick:


:D

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barack the house Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
14. Keep placing local classfied ads with heartfelt pleas for Dem senators and house seats.
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Diamonique Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
16. I would love to see McConnell ousted.
k&r
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starroute Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 12:33 PM
Response to Original message
18. When the GOP can't win them they steal them
And the states named are thus the likeliest targets for voter suppression and election fraud. We'd best be thinking now about how to protect the integrity of the vote against every imaginable assault.

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scarletwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
19. k&r for a lovely vision of the future. (nt)
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Labors of Hercules Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
20. I hope NC's Kay Hagen can pull it out...
I'll be campaigning my ass off for her.

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WillyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
21. Big K & R !!!
:woohoo: :kick: :woohoo:
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