Obama, Trumping Despair, Can Win Comfortably: Albert R. Hunt (Bloomberg)

[Leo 9]

Obama, Trumping Despair, Can Win Comfortably: Albert R. Hunt

Commentary by Albert R. Hunt

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- There are three types of U.S. presidential elections: landslides, comfortable margins and squeakers. With 20 weeks to go, this one isn't going to be a landslide, though it starts with a decided tilt toward Barack Obama.

Looking at the national surveys over the last week and polls in the dozen or so most-competitive states, and factoring in the underlying fundamentals -- history, the economy, war and an unpopular incumbent -- the professional bettors are smartly putting the early money on the Democratic nominee.

There are four emerging elements that can shape, or reshape, this race: the map, as it's called, or the Electoral College of states, which, as the world learned in 2000, decides the presidency; changing conditions or circumstances; the vice presidential decision, and what dominates the agenda this fall.

Some American journalists love to focus on the state-by- state electoral breakdown, full of fancy-colored maps -- red for Republican, blue for Democrat -- that add little value. If a candidate wins the popular vote by 4 or 5 percentage points, there is no practical chance the Electoral College will go the other way; the map follows the voters.

However, in a razor-thin election -- 1960, 1968, 1976 and, of course, 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote and lost the presidency because of the infamous Florida recount -- the map matters.

Both camps talk about expanding their party's universe this year, competing in states that used to be out of reach. Disregard most of that; if Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican candidate, wins California or New Jersey or if Obama takes Texas or Georgia, it will be a landslide like 1964, 1972 or 1984.

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