MSNBC's Hardball falsely suggested McCain holds statistically significant lead over Obama

[kevinmc]

MSNBC's Hardball falsely suggested McCain holds statistically significant lead over Obama among white suburban women

http://mediamatters.org/items/200806130003

On June 12, Hardball host Chris Matthews aired two separate on-screen graphics, based on an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 6-9, that falsely suggested that Sen. John McCain's lead of 44 percent to 38 percent over Sen. Barack Obama among white suburban women is statistically significant. Specifically, the charts provided only the margin of error for the survey as a whole -- 3.1 percentage points -- and not the margin of error of 9.34 percentage points for the crosstab of white suburban women.

Huffington Post reporter Seth Colter Walls wrote on June 12 that after Huffington Post emailed "NBC's political unit asking for a numeric breakdown of 'suburban women' in their poll," "MSNBC has now provided The Huffington Post with more information on its 'suburban women' finding showing a 44-38 McCain lead over Obama. 'This is within the margin of error of 9.34 percent based on a sample size of 110 within the larger poll,' an MSNBC source wrote over email.


(That's three times the margin of error for the entire poll.) This means McCain's 44 percent figure of support among suburban women could actually be as low as 35 percent, while Obama's 38 percent figure could rise as high as 47 percent -- assuming a 95 percent confidence interval (for the stat wonks in the house). Alternatively, McCain could be leading Obama 53-29. While those distant outcomes are less likely true than NBC-WSJ's 44-38 finding, that broad variance raises questions about the statistical usefulness of this one particular crosstab, as opposed to the rest of the NBC-WSJ poll on the whole."............

More at > http://mediamatters.org/items/200806130003

[HockeyMom]

1. The So Called Security Moms?

I don't think so. My guess having lived in a suburb for 20 years is that they are more worried about econcomic issues these days. Is their family going to survive without losing their home, visiting the food pantry, etc., etc.

[kevinmc]

2. I agree with you ..... they are just making stuff up now. n/t

[FrenchieCat]

3. yep. Making shit up as they go.......

That's what they do best. Reporting the truth has never been easy for them.

[cliffordu]

4. They HAVE to make this a horse race to seem like they're more viable

than Jerry Springer.

It makes me sick. I don't watch anyone but Olberman and John Stewart anymore.....

[regnaD kciN]

5. That's right...if people looked at the actual results...

...and realized that this was most likely going to be a solid Obama victory, the media would be stuck with something like the '96 election instead of the '00 or '04 "race to the wire" they so desire.