John Pearce: Assessing Nader’s Electoral College Impact

[DUreader]

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0818-13.htm


snip




Nader's presence in the race is currently taking Kerry from Electoral College victory to a dead heat with Bush. As shown by the “Nader 04 Impact Map,” at http://www.theunitycampaign.org/battleground/, Nader costs Kerry slight leads in Minnesota and Missouri, and gives Bush slight leads in Ohio and Nevada. No less crucial, Nader may also tip the balance in several states that are essentially tied (Iowa, West Virginia, New Hampshire, and Maine), where his support equals or exceeds the margin between Bush and Kerry.

These results will of course be controversial, despite our reliance on non-partisan data and professional polling best-practice. Polling is imprecise, and, as we continuously update the Impact Map with new polls, the outlook will continue to evolve.

But polling offers the best available evidence regarding our initial question. “What impact is Nader having on the probable outcome of the election?” On this question, the answer is clear. At this time, despite his low polling and lack of popular support, Nader’s candidacy is dangerously likely to tip the balance to George Bush.

[dumpster_baby]

1. nader does not change the race/race even/fix your url

Your url is wrong


Also, no state switches with nader out of the race.

Interesting that this poll gives kerry 254, bush 252, and 32 undecided, which means the race is even. ANd that contrasts with other polls which seem to put kerry in a decent leading position.

interesting site....

[DUreader]

2. url seems right for me

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0818-13.htm

the other url, in the story, I don't know.

[The Magistrate]

3. Common Wet Dream, Rather

Among the "useful idiots" who cling to the hope Wrecker Nader will bring triumph to the worst elements of reaction in our polity, so that they may become the radical leaders of the revolutionary people.

In this instance, disgust must overcome humor....

"You can't cut the throat of every cocksucker whose character it would improve."

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[DUreader]

4. Common Dreams Highlights Naders Impact With This Piece

Or am I mis-reading?

Seems fairly significant to me that CD is linking this, compared to where

they were in 2000.

[The Magistrate]

6. They Tout And Promote, Sir

They exaggerate greatly, by committing the idiocy of assuming the draw of a splinter candidate will be the same on election day as in polls some months out. It never, ever, is.

The desire of this journal is quite clear: they wish to see the defeat of the Democratic party's candidate for President, feeling prolonged rule by reactionaries will create a backlash that will turn to radicals such as themselves. It is a delusion verging on megalomania, but common enough in splinterist circles.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[DUreader]

7. I just don't see it that way, seems more likely to warn off nader voting

If people think w* has any chance of winning they will be less

likely to vote for nader.

Common Dreams hardly seems radical compared to the other kinds of stuff

I see out there.

Are you saying they are some kind of front?

[John_H]

5. Nader is more important to Chimp than Osama.

Don't like the comparison Naderites? Tough. Osmama hwlps chimp only if he's cought. Nader is helping chimp now and will continue to do so as long as he's on ballots.