Obama/Webb: I'm having some second thoughts.....

[woolldog]

According to exit polls in his 2006 race, Webb didn't draw in the groups Obama would need him to.

Highlights:

* He lost white men 62-38

* He lost white women 53-47

* He lost the white vote 58-42
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/VA/S/01/epolls.0.html

In fact he only won because of the large numbers of Blacks (85%)and Asians (68%) who voted for him. These are ok numbers for a democrat, I guess. But part of the allure of Webb has been his supposed ability to appeal the rural white voters that Obama is struggling with. It doesn't appear that he was able to do that in his Senate race.

Looking at a county-by-county map of the results of his 2006 Senate race he ran mostly weak in the rural areas. To be fair he did win 2 counties (Dickenson and Buchanon--these are Appalachian counties) that Obama lost badly to Clinton 85%-12% and 90%-9% respectively.:


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/VA/S/01/map.html

By way of comparison here was Obamas map, side by side with a map detailing the Appalachian region where Obama fares poorly. List some of Obama's worst counties in VA (I believe almost all of these are in the Appalachian region of Virginia):

Dickenson: lost 85%-12%
Buchanon: lost 90%-9%
Wise: lost 82%-16%
Lee: lost 86%-13%
Scott: lost 81%-17%
Russell: lost 84%-14%



http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#VA

So I'm wondering if Webb will be the rural draw many of us are assuming he will be?

Anyone from Virginia have comments?

[Spider Jerusalem]

1. Fun facts:

Bill Clinton only got 38% of the white vote in 1992. The Democrats have not WON the white vote since 1964.

[woolldog]

2. I understand that.

But the argument for Webb as VP has been to help Obama with rural white voters (esp Appalachians) in order to maximize his chances in November in states like VA, PA, and OH. I'm questioning whether he will really have the impact many are assuming he will. And if he won't perhaps other VPs might be a better fit? or other criteria should take precedence?

(Clinton was also in a three way race in 92, with a solid 3rd party candidate. The situation this November won't be comparable.)

[sandnsea]

3. Kerry lost the VA white vote 68-32

And he lost white men 72-27. Somebody needs to explain why so many white men think they need their own party.

[woolldog]

4. Doesn't that prove my point though?

Kerry lost VA and Webb only did slightly better than that. Maybe Warner would make a better pick to get VA in play????

[sandnsea]

5. 10% is a lot of people

And I have no idea whether Warner would be more helpful than Webb because I don't know the dynamics of the governor's race. Plus, Warner has no military or foreign policy experience which is most of the reason Webb is being considered.

[Heather MC]

23. webb only won by 9000 votes out of the 2.4 million who voted

but I think he has gained in popularity since then
His GI bill is big around here

[earthlover]

6. Webb won in a nail-biter

VA is becoming more demographically in tune with voting Democratic because the population is shifting, with more in Northern VA. Rural VA is solidly red, and has been for years.

[RichGirl]

7. Webb lost the white vote.

And George "Macaca" won them. So, he won't help Obama win them. Only a burst of sanity will change things.

Webb has other problems. Years ago he made sexist remarks about women not being fit for military. Said something like...the naval academy is a horny womans dream.

He also wrote several novels that had x-rated material pertaining to children. Yes, they were fiction, but the republicans will make hay of them.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. These things worry me about Webb, too. Otherwise he'd make a good choice.

What about Clark?

[woolldog]

19. Clark is not as good a choice as Webb.

What elected office has Clark ever won? None. I've seen him doing the rounds lately on TV news and I have not been impressed with his political skills.

[sfam]

8. Webb got the anti-Meccaca vote...

Virginia is NOT the democratic bastion that many here have been mentioning. As a dem in Northern VA, I in no way feel like I'm in the majority here. This is defense government contractor land.

Bottom line, if you want to guarantee VA, there's only one choice to do this: Mark Warner. If you do, it'll cost you a Senator.

[Mike Daniels]

12. Even with Macaca, Web won by only 9,000 or so votes

Webb as VP does not help Obama one bit.

[Apollo11]

9. Two rookie Senators on the ticket?

I predict that Obama will pick a Governor with executive experience but no "Washington experience".

But I could be wrong ...

[KittyWampus]

11. Webb had 3 opportunities to refute his nasty comments about women in military

he failed to do so.

His book, his Senate race, his interview with Russert.

His interview with Russert is alarming. Russert gives him a chance to step away and FORWARD and Webb absolutely would not do that.

Very troubling and I'm sorry to say.

[Bread and Circus]

13. I'm not super keen on Webb but you have to look at those numbers

compared to how other candidates did in the same demographics. Perhaps he did better than expected. It's fairly typical for rural communities to go 65% Republican or more.

[Thrill]

14. This not a surprise. Obama helped him win. He campaigned for him a week in VA

Thats why I was pissed at Webb for not endorsing Obama early

[Bucky]

15. "He lost white men"

:rofl: No, don't worry. Us white men don't get lost. We just refuse to pull over and ask for directions.

[LynneSin]

16. Lucky for us we abolished the *Whites Only* vote with the 15th amendment

Look, I've worked countless elections in Pennsylvania and that's a swing state that has gone democrat based on our ability to get out the vote in urban areas. If we can have high voter turn out in Philadelphia we really only need to win 35-40% of the White Vote for the rest of the state.

Virginia is hardly the state to use for determining whether or not we can win the election. The fact that Webb pulled out this win is a major bonus for us because he did bring out the African-American voters. The female vote will be tricky thanks to that paper he wrote 20 years ago but I'd like to see how he would handle that as a VP.

We don't need to win the majority of the white voters to win - we need to make sure that every person of every color who is legally able to vote gets to vote on election day. We don't need anothe fiasco like we had in Cleveland in 2004 - a fiasco that may have cost Kerry the election (ie the polling places were given very few voting booths to help create long lines & frustration with the voters)

[cbc5g]

17. If you knew who his opponent was, The RW's golden boy, you would understand

Actually George Allen was on most peoples top list for the RW nominee for the 2008 election but the macaca comment destroyed his career...and it was a long career in Virginia.

[AspenRose]

Yep

Webb won in a squeaker....it wasn't a definitive win....Macaca-man helped Webb tremendously. Had Allen kept his mouth shut we'd probably still be stuck with his racist ass.

[woolldog]

21. Thanks for that perspective.

That's why I was hoping Virginians would weigh in. Do you think Webb will be the draw in rural areas that people are banking on when they talk about him as VP?

[cbc5g]

22. I dont think Obama wants to deal with the womens issues that still plague Webb

He would definitely help in rural areas but...I don't think he will be the VP as much as I'd like him to. Obama needs a strong tough speaking person with a good clean record. The RW attack machine will be brutal this year.

[JimGinPA]

18. Jon Stewart Was Working On Him To Go For VP Last Night...

He said he could just sit around and shoot anyone he wanted in the face.


:rofl:

[TexasObserver]

20. He comes across screwed down a little too tight.

I thought he was really uncomfortable on The Daily Show last night. He's an intense guy, and I'm not sure he'll draw the demos people think he might.

[LisaM]

24. I agree with you. He seems as if he's on a very short fuse

I think people also are forgetting that he served in the, UH, REAGAN administration? He was also a vociferous defender of people involved in the Tailhook scandal. His qualifications now are that he fought against the Iraq war and he was better than George Allen (not a noted feminist either!) Of course, I can't speak for ALL women, but THIS woman is extremely opposed to Jim Webb as a choice.

[woolldog]

25. Reagan administration

that's one of his draws. he's a progressive in gop clothing (look at his voting record). great way of attracting crossover voters and boosting obama's "bi-partisan creds."

[LisaM]

26. I don't consider it a draw.

But then again, I was one of those utterly turned off by Obama's Reagan remarks. Go figure!

I'm glad Jim Webb won because he was vastly better than his opponent, and created a Democratic majority. But he's not really my cup of tea as far as being the ideal.

I actually thought Clinton was brave to pick Al Gore, because there were many of us who valued Gore at his full worth back in 1992 and liked him a lot better than we liked Clinton. As you probably know, I'm not the hugest Obama fan, but it wouldn't improve the ticket in my eyes if he chose a running mate I felt equally tepid about.