Sorry Governor Rendell Senator Clinton is not finishing strong & Senator Obama is not out of gas.

[grantcart]

Tonight while conceding that Senator Clinton was likely 'finished' Governor Rendell lamented that it was unfortunate since Hillary was finishing strong and Senator Obama was running out of gas at finish.

The facts, once again, do not support Gov. Rendell

At the end of the primary season it is useful to note several key poll results, just in case anyone wants to make reference to either 'popular vote' or projected 'general election' viability.

Tonight Governor Rendell was making remarks to the effect that Senator Clinton was finishing very strong and Senator Obama was fading in the end.

Of course geography was the key factor, if the last five primaries were in Vermont, South Carolina Wyoming, Hawaii and Maine instead of places like Kentucky and West Virginia he wouldn't have that spin.

It is unfortunate however that surrogates for the Clinton campaign make it necessary to show once again that it is Senator Clinton whose support has declined while Senator Obama's support increases


Senator Obama continues to command a significant lead on head to head polls with Senator Clinton





Senator Obama now out performes Senator Clinton in States she won in the Primary, including both California and her home state of New York









Several key states like Iowa and Colorado polls show Obama winning and Clinton losing









Washington a 'must win' state for the Democrats is won by double digits by Obama and is within the error of margin with Senator Clinton





Senator Obama has a chance to win Virginia and is behind by only 3 points while Senator Clinton trails McCain by almost 10 points






And while Senator Clinton does better than Senator Obama in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana (very close) Governor Rendell's remarks tonight that Senator Obama is behind in these states is untrue, as he emerges from the bitter primary contest his numbers continue to improve and he now leads McCain in all three states with his numbers trending up in all three.








It would be nice, Governor Rendell that you put away your spin glasses and help Senator Clinton leave on a high note. If you feel compelled to take liberties with the facts on the way out we cannot let you do so without correcting the record lest people buy your comical assertions that Senator Clinton finished strong and Senator Obama ran out of gas at the end of the race.



http://www.pollster.com/

[Cha]

1. And "hilary's winning in the popular vote, too"

It's just like running against rove and his Orwellian crap.

[bhikkhu]

5. Some varieties of Non-Euclidean Geography allow WV results to proliferate

beyond any expectation, while caucus states fold into insignificant and hardly noticeable ripples in the topography.

What is real, really, and who can tell the future?

[grantcart]

19. they need to update their vodoo

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

That is all.

B-)

[grantcart]

10. I'll have what she is having

[NightOwwl]

3. If the primary was held in California tomorrow...

Obama would win by a landslide.

[grantcart]

9. and among other things the 'Obama has problems with the hispanic vote' would

have also be gone.

[jsmirman]

4. I applaud the thoroughness, but without MOE numbers for each of these

some of your comments about ahead/behind/etc. are not really fair.

[grantcart]

6. Except for the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll they are all polls of polls

and therefore do not have MOE but are generally considered more accurate than any one poll because by using many polls they have a much larger base and different polls work against each other's bias.


I have added the link to Pollster.com so you can link to the individual pages and back to individual polls.


My comments and the polls reflect general trends pointing to Gov. Rendells assertion that Clinton was surging at the end with Senator Obama declining. To that point I thnk that the polls reflect clearly that is not the case.

Senator Clinton's decline in California is significant and even in New York the spread between her and Senator Obama now show Senator Obama with a larger lead. The lead is not significant but it shouldn't even be close, so the MOE is not relevant - she should be ahead of Senator Obama by a large margin - not by the MOE.

[jsmirman]

7. Are you sure about that? Polls of polls should still have MOE, I believe

Because isn't that just a case of taking samples of samples, or a pool of samples?

I don't actually know how polls of polls and MOEs work, but shouldn't the above be true?

[grantcart]

8. It may be theoretically true but because each poll has different survey numbers and

methodology I don't know how they would do it. In anycase the average MOE is probably 5%. Moreover the value of the polls is to show general trends over a longer period of time rather than absolutely precise numbers at a specific time.

In that case I think, generally speaking, the polls shown are fair to the point and Gov. Rendell's assertions are without foundation.

[jsmirman]

12. Because even within the MOE they show trends, I agree

I'm just saying that MOE means that both numbers could be *anywhere* within the parameters of MOE, which makes it hard to know much about their relative standing. I think the public has been very unfortunately conditioned to not understand how truly MOE means anywhere within a spectrum of plus and minus- it's more like they view it as some casual caveat, when it's a lot more meaningful than that.

[VotesForWomen]

11. looks like the Obama Bandwagon is hitting some speedbumps.

[grantcart]

15. some sychophants are shocked to find that the Obama campaign is going to

win without having to deal with their old time 'machine' politics - guess Rendell will have to stay in PA after all.

[AllentownJake]

13. Poor Fast Eddie

looks like back to Eagles coverage and opening pools for him. No future cabinet position for you.

[4themind]

14. Back to comcast for that one

Application denied....

[grantcart]

22. and the deposit fee will not be refunded

[grantcart]

21. yup hes out thankfully

[book_worm]

16. She has won in states she was expected to win big in like WVA and KY

he has taken more diverse states like Oregon and North Carolina by large margin and in a surprise drew a draw in Indiana.

[grantcart]

25. exactly

[futureliveshere]

17. Why oh why do you bring FACTS into the discussion??

Haven't you heard that the only primary that mattered was Puerto Rico? Shame on you grantcart.

:P

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mohc]

20. It really is quite silly for this type of argument to be made by Clinton supporters

Those that do not back Clinton, including Obama supporters, could rightfully make an argument that Obama's victory over Clinton was marginal. But for Clinton backers to make the same argument belies their support for Clinton. If they did not believe Clinton was the strongest candidate, they would not be supporting her. And if they do believe she is the strongest candidate, than any victory over her must be viewed as a strong victory. Beating the "best", however narrowly, is always a quality win, narrow victories are only hollow when the opponent is weak.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

23. Interesting take.

I've always thought that contrary to Obama being weak, this victory shows strength. Clinton was one of the strongest candidates in 50 years.

[grantcart]

24. I have been making the same argument for months

[grantcart]

26. some in GDP are arguing that Obama limped to the finish