For the record, if the national polls in May really matter, we should have wrapped Bill Clinton in a carpet and thrown him off a bridge in May of 1992.
From the May 7 1992 New York Times:
If the general election were held today, Mr. Perot would win 35 percent of Colorado votes, as against Mr. Bush's 30 percent and Mr. Clinton's 16 percent, according to a poll of 503 registered voters taken for The Denver Post and KCNC-TV on April 24-May 3. If Mr. Perot were not on the ballot, Mr. Bush would beat Mr. Clinton 47 percent to 31 percent.
In a three-way matchup in California, Mr. Perot would take 38 percent, Mr. Bush 32 percent and Mr. Clinton 20 percent. The poll of 808 registered voters was taken by Mason-Dixon Political-Media Research between April 30 and May 4. It was published in The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE2DD133FF934A35756C0A964958260&scp=2&sq=Clinton%20Perot%20Bush%20polls&st=cse20 PERCENT!!!! IN CALIFORINIA!!!! MY GOD!!!
FROM JUNE 23, 1992 NEW YORK TIMES:
In a three-way race, 32 percent of the registered voters said they would prefer Mr. Bush, 30 percent Mr. Perot and 24 percent Mr. Clinton. Since the last Times/CBS Poll, conducted in early May, both Mr. Bush and Mr. Clinton have slipped and Mr. Perot has gained.
In a head-to-head race, Mr. Bush and Mr. Perot would be essentially tied, 42 percent to 43 percent. And in a head-to-head contest with Mr. Clinton, Mr. Bush is ahead, but not significantly, given the survey's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points: Mr. Bush is at 45 percent, while Mr. Clinton is at 40 percent. Two Downward Trends
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE2D9123EF930A15755C0A964958260&scp=1&sq=Clinton%20Perot%20Bush%20polls&st=cseHe was trailing Bush - who was possibly the most unpopular incumbent ever at this point - by 5 points nationally.